Oct

10

Uncle Howie

October 10, 2021 | Leave a Comment

My uncle Howie: (1) is notable for winning and losing 55 national handball Nationals, and (2) is the world's most apreciative person of father Artie (he lived across the steps from him)and (3) he always looks like he's going to punch you in the face if you disagree with him.

(4) he gave me that mix of 2 to 4 and insisted i take a whole body scan. its similar in its efficacy to the illumina story. I finally yielded in view of 2-4 and it saved my life when it found a 10-fold elevation in cea. David Brooks said I had about 6 months to live had he not operated on me. how many have passed away because of regulatory delays?

Vic's twitter feed

Oct

8

arthur niederhoffer my father was a police officer for 20 years and routinely did acts of kindness for others. everyone who knew him said they thought of him as their fondest elder brother.

banana ice cream: Artie encouraged many kids and police officers to go on from high school to college. At 12 midnite when his shift ended he led a regular group of 12 in going over the entrance exams using the Delehanty study guides.

At that time NY City creameries included the Breyers Ice Cream Factory. Artie treated all his students and me to banana ice cream from Breyers at 1 or 2 am after the study sessions ended. After 70 years i can never eat banana ice cream without crying as i'm doing now.

the slice backhand: as part of his acts of kindness, artie graded the Delehanty guides. indeed on the last day of his life he graded all his students at John Jay and gave them all an A. i studied these Delehanty guides and it helped me get into Harvard. it was there i learned the terrible slice backhand as i had never played squash before.

The life and career of Arthur Niederhoffer

At his memorial service, John Jay College President Gerald W. Lynch said:

"Arthur is the prototype of what John Jay College is; the practitioner who stood on the front line of police work; the thinker and explainer to us all of the reasons for social deviance and the proper responsibilities and limits of social control; the man of strong compassion for his fellow human beings who strove to help us understand police work and its stress, as well as the criminals the police must deal with.

"In loving tribute, his colleagues, friends, and relatives established the Arthur Niederhoffer Memorial Fellowship, awarded annually to students in the doctoral program in criminal justice at John Jay College who ”best epitomize in academic achievement and in the promise of future fulfillment the professional accomplishments of Arthur Niederhoffer.”

Vic's twitter feed

Oct

6

%$#@ Yankees

October 6, 2021 | Leave a Comment

to me the yankees play a pathetic game with no small ball and terrible defense, and the great majority of their batters with averages below 220. typical is their clean up batter gallo with a 190 average. compounding the misery for me is the terrible managing and the way the yankees use quant strategies unvarying and fixed. even worse than technical analysts in our field. no matter what, the yanks will take a pitcher out after 100 pitches even he's if pitching a no hitter.

worst of all are the promotional ads like kars and dear priscilla and the cancer and lotteries ads on the radio that destroy ones equanimity. in short the yankees don't deserve to win and good bye susan and john for 6 months.

stockholm syndrome at bronx baseball. the players, when asked about the good job that boone is doing, come up with "he shows up every day."

Vic's twitter feed

Oct

5

Vic notes:

an observer who seems as acute as andy:

SUBSCRIBER 6 minutes ago: We had a hot tip, in about 2010, about stock in a company that could do many different lab tests from a "drop" of finger stick blood! Knowing nothing about the company structure–just the excited promises–but being 30+ years into a Laboratory Medicine career, we realized that this was nothing new. We'd been doing a variety of chemistries & blood counts on finger stick and heel stick blood sample since at least the early 80's–actually 2 or 3 drops of blood in a thin glass capillary tube. The variety of tests, and the number of analytical systems doing these tests, expanded every year. It was routine–a standard of medical lab operations…nothing at all new except the excitement of a 20-something girl who had the market, a score of hyper-successful board members, and an uninformed public fascinated by her predictions. She was masterful at marketing–initially.

A reader adds:

I have heard several interviews with John Carreyou about his book, Bad Blood, but haven't read it yet.

Sep

30

nobody asked me but the yankees are a much worse coached team than any of the other contenders and are likely to lose in the wild card very quickly. they constantly take out pitchers and refuse to play small ball.

nobody asked me but the relation between susan and john on the yankees game would be indecorous if john weren't so old and susan weren't so nice. he refers to her as my dear and often says that he knows nothing and she knows everything. neither of them seems to have insights into the game but susan knows many anecdotes and john is often bewildered by the uncertainty of the game.

i enjoy listening to them while i'm watching prices but every ad on their radio program seems to be a promotion of one kind. the worst besides the kars for kids which seems to be a promotion all around is the sniff and shimmei for the ny lottery as it promises two wins daily.

the ads for cancer are particularly reprehensible as they indicate that someone has hope because a comprehensive cancer center will do research on their particular cancer.

Vic's twitter feed

Sep

28

Ken Burns Says Current Times ‘Equal’ to Civil War, Depression and World War II: ‘It’s Really Serious’

Historian and documentary filmmaker Ken Burns said that the present day is one of the worst times in American history.

Burns made the remark while on the “SmartLess” podcast, hosted by Will Arnett, Jason Bateman, and Sean Hayes, comparing current events with the Civil War, the Depression, and World War II.

“It’s really serious. There are three great crises before this: the Civil War, the Depression, and World War II. This is equal to it,” he said on Monday’s episode when asked about the direction the United States was headed.

Peter Saint-Andre offers:

Perhaps he's been reading The Fourth Turning by Strauss & Howe. Highly recommended.

It does strike me that the recent run of presidents rivals the likes of Fillmore, Pierce, and Buchanan. Stefan can provide a more informed perspective for us.

Leo Jia writes:

The Fourth Turning sounds very interesting, thanks for sharing. I had similar senses in recent years, hope I had read it earlier.

According to Wikipedia [Strauss–Howe generational theory], our current turning is crisis starting in 2008 and ending in 2020 (+a couple years perhaps). The last crisis was between 1929 and 1947 (depression and ww2 together for 17 years). The crisis before that was between 1860 and 1865 (civil war for 5 years).

As one turning generally lasts 20-22 years, the current one is coming to the final years.

The next turning following a crisis is termed high. It's like 1946 - 1964, and 1865 - 1886, for which we can be hopeful.

I am not sure if the authors discussed about the not fully synchronous nature of the turnings through the world. For instance, America didn't suffer ww2 so much as Europeans or some Asians. Europe didn't have the depression, though it had ww1 earlier. Also, even in the same crisis turning for instance, different groups or countries can take differently: winners get more benefits than losers for instance.

So the podcaster talks about a worst crisis we are in, well that may be true, but the good news is that not everyone has to suffer.

Vic adds:

presumably that fellow traveler who has never believed in american excetionalim is referring to the negative feelings about president biden which i happen to agree is bearish as the masters 1000 and the big tech and the bilious billionaires will have less chance of capturing the rake from being one with the lokis.

Henri Huws suggests:

If you’re enjoying The Fourth Turning have a look at Decline of the West by Oswald Spengler. He was a history teacher by trade that wrote extensively on the coming decline of the west. Spengler’s cyclical theory on history is very interesting. He famously predicted the fall of the third reich, 9 years before the end of the war. All of his work is fantastic, but has a much longer time horizon than the 4th turning. In vol1 he focuses on how culture in civilisations throughout history changed as their civilisations grew and declined. In vol 2 He puts more emphasis on politics and economics. Its a dense read, but well worth it.

Duncan Coker recommends:

For geopolitics I recommend Peter Zeihan. His latest is due out next year, and the title is provocative: The End of the World is Just the Beginning. It could be taken as negative or positive depending on your time frame. As much as I like Ken, his comparisons to other points in history seem way off the mark.

Stefan Jovanovich

Mr. Burns left out the wow finish with Jesus and George Washington - always Lincoln's favorite bit of stagecraft.

Reason, cold, calculating, unimpassioned reason, must furnish all the materials for our future support and defence.–Let those materials be moulded into general intelligence, sound morality, and in particular, a reverence for the constitution and laws: and, that we improved to the last; that we remained free to the last; that we revered his name to the last; that, during his long sleep, we permitted no hostile foot to pass over or desecrate his resting place; shall be that which to learn the last trump shall awaken our WASHINGTON. Upon these let the proud fabric of freedom rest, as the rock of its basis; and as truly as has been said of the only greater institution, "the gates of hell shall not prevail against it."

Sep

27

an important book like this deserves a proper reference

The Analysis of Economic Time Series, by Harold Thayer Davis (1941) [pdf]

Sep

26

Levels of the bias

September 26, 2021 | Leave a Comment

in john mcphee's book about the ashe-graebner match (Levels of the Game), he told me 100 people came up to him on the princeton train and berated him for it being biased against graebner and 100 came up to berate him for bias against ashe.

i am berated by the bears for being an ignoramous and having a bullish bias and others compliment me for being so smart. i am not so smart. and like all old people i have to change to adjust to modern times.

Vic's twitter feed

Sep

26

some shocking moves in bonds stocks gold last week. the frog jumped out of the water. will the flexions allow a debacle while infrastructure in play?

the study of circuit diagrams (Boolean algebra, logic gates) with the output depending on various consecutive combos of and, or, not, and +, gives good insights and possible uses for the color diagrams. for example let "stocks up" be p and "bonds down" be not q. we've had two p not q in a row.

it happened 44 times since 2019 - nothing special for either as an output.

by adding a + r, one can put a third variable in it. these extensions were strangely inspired by insights about checkers. the moves in checkers one forward or one backward with red and black have always seemed to me indicative of logic circuits with the output corresponding.

Vic's twitter feed

Sep

25

laurel writes that it's execrable to go on a date to a dance concert with someone who can't dance. i fear she is referring invidiously to me. all i can say is that my father was the best dancer in the police force and also the star of folk dancing from russia and latin american countries which were very hard to learn and perform which my dad performed every day with 50 women and 20 men daily in the baths at the beach.

also my daughter galt would have been a star of american dance machine if the director had lived.

all my daughters are great dancers and so is my wife. somehow i can't dance even though i have taken lessons from four different teachers. my favorite teacher was yuval hod.

Best Lindy Hop Dance Routine - Yuval Hod & Nathalie Gomes!

yuval had the same problem in winning 4 world championships that i did. all the judges at the international competitions were biased against Israel. the squash officials used to love it to make me lose and called around when i was losing.

fortunately they didn't see me losing that much but i would have won another n.a. championship if stew breauns had called one down on me that i was up. he had never called one down on me before. it was 14 all when he called it against me in the semis. i can still see him, a diabolical smile in letting sam howe win who had never beat me before.

funny how memories from 60 years ago are so resonant. i remember every match i lost. the funny thing was that even though i was practically undefeated for the 10 years of my prime. i should have been much better if i hadn't been taught that accursed slice backhand.

i wish i was 1/10 as good at markets as i was in racket sports. the slice backhand was particularly reprehensible in racquetball. marty hogan hit backhand 150 miles an hour. i was lucky to reach 60 mph. the funny thing is that i am the only player with a plus record against marty.

my father could do anything perfectly. he was a formist and did everything with perfect form. i do everything with terrible form. my wife is a formist also.

i violated larry wiliams rule about less than 1/2 age + 7 with my formist wife when she was 19 and I was 32. i'll never forget when i entered a rac tourney and 10 guys ran up to me and said "you have to see this girl's backhand perfect form and she's a looker also."

i taught her that backhand and she beat john hummer with it with my father watching. john was twice her height.

Vic's twitter feed

Sep

19

some comments on the big decline.

(1) it was a decline red in tooth and claw with bonds, stocks, and gold down.

(2) it was harbingered by the decline of 47 bucks in gold on thursday. a once in a decade decline. the main reason there was a status incongruence.

(3) everything bad for the US. the 70 billion of equipment left behind. and all the US could come up with was that the afghans and their allies aren't smart enuf to reverse engineer it.

(4) the foreigners have to decide on options expiration whether they should continue their US buying. with the US in decline from the withdrawal and everything related, why should they park in US.

(5) the status incongruence of the admission we killed 19 civilians in the drone strife. but this was clearly an attempt to come up with good talking points about our over the horizon capability. this was the only thing they coudn't blame on pele another incongruence.

(6) the incongruence of Milley worrying about sanity of Trump but not concerned about the montreal semantic test for other high officials. incongruence of no punishment for generals who worked for raytheon and g.d. but impeachment if pele did it.

(7) as the professor says, the market moves to every higher numbers with cataracts along the way.

Vic's twitter feed

Jeff Watson writes:

With many talking doom and gloom regarding the future, it is a noteworthy accomplishment for the S&P to only be 2.5% off it's ATH.

Mark Graham asks:

so what's next come monday?

Jeff Watson responds:

Who knows what the market is going to do on Monday. Who cares what I think? Who cares what anyone thinks should happen in the future? Why should one trust the "experts?" People might have an idea of what might happen, but that's about all it is. I can't count the times I've been perfectly convinced something would happen and it didn't. What happens tomorrow happens, and you will either be right or wrong. That's the case for every one of us. It doesn't matter what Chair, Bill, Sogi San, Larry, myself, or any other member of this list thinks the market is going to do. It only matters what you think and how you navigate the often treacherous currents, eddies and shoals of the markets. Opinions given for free, market tips, supposed insider info, etc are worth less than what you pay for them. LeFevre talked all about tips, and allowing others to do one's thinking for them, and his advice should be heeded.

Larry Williams joins in:

There are people I listen to intently; they have established they are worth listening to…some are on this list. An explanation of why a trader expects such and such to happen is not a “tip". Big difference.

Jeff Watson clarifies:

Since I obviously wiffed the ball in my previous reply, to clarify and make my point clear, the message was it's best to keep one's own counsel.

Larry Williams concurs:

Yup, listen to all but pull the trigger at the target you see.

Nils Poertner adds:

I think what is tricky for most people to understand that in many other parts of business life (in particular as an employee), one can do very well as long one is social enough, aggressive, disciplined enough, progressive etc… or went to the right school…

whereas maneuvering mkts (long-term - over decades) by oneself requires a different mindset altogether - and trading even more so than pure investing

Sep

19

Snitch Nation

September 19, 2021 | Leave a Comment

bill maher does Snitch Nation. of course we're all wondering what we can get from others and what the others are going to desire to take from us. a natural consequence of the road to socialism.

Vic's twitter feed

Sep

15

Yankee analytics

September 15, 2021 | Leave a Comment

forget the regularities and statistics. the yankees lost 7 in a row while s&p moves to 14 day low but won 13 in a row while the market broke 4500. yesterday they finally won one while following insane analytics that are set before the game and don't take account of recency.

incredibly an analytics that says that after 100 pitches the other side does better trumps an ERA on current pitches of 2 or less et al. does someone know about ever changing cycles there or are the analytics designed for losses the way yankees use them?

the yankee games are good predictor of the sp? why is this not chance? but the ads on the radio game are so biased and woke that they ruin ones enjoyment of the predictions. worst of all the the attempts at humor of the insurance ads and the hope for cancer and the lottery ads.

the kars for kids and the lawyer ads that have received a 6 million settlement are reprehensible also

Vic's twitter feed

Sep

15

i found this interview extraordinarily educational and revealing. self-loathing virtue signaling military defense generals at general dynamics and raytheon.

In this Direct interview, John Anderson, former Deputy Prime Minister of Australia, is joined by Victor Davis Hanson. Dr. Hanson addresses Biden’s role in the Afghanistan crisis, increased tensions between China and the US, and the future of the US-Australia relationship.

Sep

13

Friday predicts next week?

September 13, 2021 | 1 Comment

friday was a most unusual day: down 50 big from the open and set an x-day low but not a 29-day low. all things considered should be a great bull week next week, regardless of the reduction of progressivism and the rise of pele in the odds.

Vic's twitter feed

Zubin al Genubi follows up:

Friday-Monday regularity kicked in nicely. Little bit of sogi coffee action this week?

Sep

11

Bookies and the vig

September 11, 2021 | Leave a Comment

remember that sports books are among the most profitable enterprises in the firmament and they let you choose a million interactions and/or splits, what used to be called the automatic interaction detector in my day. they dissect the data much more carefully than any technical analysts and they report statistics. they find that with all the expertise and all the advice that they can give, 1 in a million sports bettors can beat the 52% necessary to win.

the vig in trading is much more than the 5 1/2 % that the sports books take out.

Vic's twitter feed

Sep

8

possibility of pittsburgh phil bet with trump leading presidential odds by 30 to 20 with 30 milllion bet and dems still 53-46 to win the election. but bets on a republican to win are 55 to 45 in favor of republicans.

Current odds for the 2024 Presidential race

Vic's twitter feed

Sep

8


In the years before 1894, when the Daily Racing Form first started publishing, there was only one way to handicap horse races with past performance charts - you had to make the charts yourself. The number of people who were compiling data on horse races and making their own charts prior to the 1890s was most likely very small, but nobody was as successful at using racing data to inform his bets than a young man from outside of Pittsburgh named George E. Smith.

The Legend of Pittsburg Phil

Sep

3

his bio of the skateboard champion and entrepreneur in Americana is classic tom wolfe and makes life much better after a read:

The Birdman Drops In

“I don’t even think of Tony as an adult,” said Phil Jennings, a 12-year-old I met at the HuckJam. “He doesn’t act like the big man. He’s one of us.”

Sep

3

reading Hampton Sides meticulous and highly recommended military books Ghost Soldiers and On Desperate Ground, one is struck by systemic attention to detail with which the us military destroys all of their own weapons in their evacuations.

what could explain their leaving behind 70 billions of US weapons in their evacuation of Afghanistan? one posits a quid pro quo. loki must be behind this.

Sep

3

Is Our Military Woke, Broke or Both?

The Pentagon needs to stop virtue signaling about diversity days, culturally sensitive food for Afghan refugees, and rooting out supposed white conspiracists.

Instead, can it just explain why the Bagram Air Base was abandoned by night? Why suddenly are the terrorist Taliban our supposed “partners” in organizing our surrender and escape?

Sep

2

Music and Math: The Genius of Beethoven

Laurence Glazier comments:

Very nice, I would add that Bach was the engineer who enabled Beethoven and everyone else to write in lots of different keys. 1.5^12 and 2^7, in music 12 fifths and 7 octaves, are almost but not quite the same. Bach fixed this with a tuning system which averages out the difference.

Peter Saint-Andre adds:

Indeed, there were a lot of tuning systems developed around then: Neidhardt (seemingly Bach's preferred system), Werckmeister (he developed several), etc. Just last night I read all about them in The Esoteric Keyboard Temperaments of J. S. Bach. These folks were the quants of their day!

Peter Grieve comments:

Yes, the problem with getting good fifths and good octaves in the same scale is find a power of 3 that is equal to a power of 2. This is because a fifth is a ratio of 3/2, and an octave is a ratio of two.

Of course, there is no power of 3 that is exactly equal to a power of 2. There is a fairly good match at 3^5=243, and 2^8=256. The power of 5 on the 3 means that this corresponds to a pentatonic scale. And 3^12=531,441 while 2^19=524,288, (proportionately a better match) which as Laurence says is the basis of a diatonic scale.

Because the matches aren't exact, something's gotta give, and this is what Bach's temperment ideas addressed (as Laurence said).

There are other near matches at larger powers, but a scale with dozens or hundreds of notes has limited appeal.

Laurence Glazier writes:

Excellent attachment on the tunings, esoteric is the right word. The fact that this is being rediscovered after hundreds of years, is of special interest to me.

Adam Grimes adds:

I have built and played harpsichords for many years. When you play harpsichords, you also tune them. A lesser-known fact is how quickly this instrument goes out of tune… you can have it in tune for a concert and then it will need a touch up at intermission.

So, harpsichord players quickly become very familiar with these tunings. Some are much more useful than others, but it also explains what composers meant when they talked about affects or emotions associated with certain keys. This was a very real thing, in some of the older tuning systems, but has been completely lost (for better or worse) with modern equal temperament.

Another interesting aside is that I find these historical tunings don't work that well on the modern piano. Completely aside from the temperament issues, there's also the issue of inharmonicity (the deviation of a physical string from the theoretical ideal). All strings have this, but the piano has A LOT because of the thickness of the strings. (Certain types of harpischords (Italian) have scalings that are much closer to the theoretical ideals.) A piano is tuned ever-sharper in higher octaves so that it is in tune with its own overtones rather than the actual pitches. It's subtle, but it's real and important… and it also obliterates the precision of these historical tunings. (Another interesting aside is that once your ear learns to hear in these historical tunings, moving back to ET is a kick in the gut. You'll sit down at a piano, play a chord, and think "wow. everything really IS out of tune." which is the compromise of ET. (For the record, ET is a beautiful and useful thing, as well.)

What I don't see much value in are the microtonal modern experiments, but I understand what drives that line of thought.

For any musicians, if you haven't had the experience of singing pure-tempered intervals against a drone I'd highly encourage it. You can spend hours or even weeks exploring the beauty and power of these resonances… and you'll know musical materials as an EXPERIENCE of resonance rather than a sound or a theoretical construct.

One might imagine that it was these experiences of resonance that encouraged early humans to sing, to seek sound, and maybe even to seek language… maybe in those caves where they left us paintings of mystery and power… somewhere a very long time ago.

But, seriously, go get a bass drone sound and sing some pure octaves, fifths, and thirds against it. You'll never hear the same way again.

A reader adds:

Each open tuning has a special resonance that is different than the same notes played in concert. Similarly chord inversions carry different overtones from base fingering.

Jeff Watson adds:

I love Fripp’s New Standard Tuning, CGDAEG. The mnemonic for recalling it is “California guitarists drop acid every gig.”

Adam Grimes responds:

yeah but slightly different. Fretted instruments are ET. You could potentially bend some notes, but you're still working in an ET world. (Scordatura certainly changes the timbre of instrument, and resonance of open strings, etc., but is a substantially different thing from temperaments.)

Laurence Glazier writes:

Thanks Adam, fascinating thoughts.

When transcribing from inspiration, I am sometimes unable to use the note I hear in my mind, which lies somewhere between a pair of adjacent semitones. As my software uses ET tuning, I have on occasion resorted to using MIDI control instructions to nudge the pitch into place, but in the light of your post, I now see that the issue may be with the tuning system. On one of the historical keyboard instruments, the note I require might simply be there.

I have enjoyed writing music in the past for clavichord, because of the pressure sensitivity, but am now writing mainly for orchestra.

As you say, experience trumps academic construct. I personally consider music to be an elemental force of nature, and species evolve to sense it along with every other aspect of reality. It's also interesting that lunar and planetary orbits often lock into similar ratios. The Pythagorean Comma has a counterpart in the slight divergence between the lunar and solar calendars. The term live music, in my opinion, is literally true.

Adam Grimes responds:

Clavichord is a beautiful and intensely problematic (at least in my experience!) instrument.

I own one. The intimacy of it is incredible… it puts the player's finger in almost direct, expressive contact with the vibrating string… but that brings up so many issues of control and it's such a different technique than any other keyboard instrument. To say nothing of the whisper-soft sound level (that defies amplification, which might seem to be the obvious answer.)

And you're right… all those "in between" notes exist as a possibility on that instrument. Not hard to imagine someone playing in a remote key and instinctively bending the out of tune notes into an acceptable range.

Zubin comments:

Guitar players always bend notes giving infinite micro tones. Squeezing the string to approach the note can give great feeling. Of course singers all do it too.

Vic is reminded of a Beethoven story:

During a performance of one of his piano concertos Beethoven was the soloist, and he got so carried away with conducting that at one point he forgot to play the piano. He flung his arms wide and knocked the candlesticks off each side of the piano. The audience burst out laughing, and Beethoven got so mad that he ordered the orchestra to start over again.

Two choirboys were enlisted to hold the candlesticks out of harm's way. One of them got increasingly intrigued by the piano score and came in closer and closer just as a loud passage broke forth. Out went Beethoven's arm, knocking the choirboy in the mouth so that he dropped his candlestick. The other choirboy, having followed Beethoven's motions more cautiously, ducked, to the complete delight of the audience.

Beethoven fell into such a rage that on the first chord of his solo he pounded the piano so forcefully that he broke half a dozen strings. Die-hard music lovers in the audience tried to restore order, but failed. After that debacle Beethoven became increasingly reluctant to give concerts.

From Wisconsin Public Radio: The Catastrophic Conductor

Aug

29

advice of Tom Wiswell to all (especially teenagers): "look and listen and learn — the secret of success lies in using your eyes and ears."

Wiswell's favorite and most important proverb for games and markets and life: "moves that disturb your position the least, disturb your opponent the most."

Vic's twitter feed

Aug

28

recommended article of the month "self cancellation, deplatforming, and censorship", nick gilespie Reason Magazine current issue (calls for a reality and extremism expert)

(Ed. note: Currently available only to digital subscribers of Reason Magazine.)
Self-cancellation, Deplatforming, and Censorship: A taxonomy of cancel culture.

Vic's twitter feed

Aug

27

Ghost Soldiers

August 27, 2021 | Leave a Comment

what a difference between the planning and the courage and the direction and the execution and the bravery of this mission in 1944 with world war 2 technology and ww2 spirit and direction. how these rescuers would look at the current situation. well worth reading, listen.

Ghost Soldiers, by Hampton Sides

Aug

24

one notes the use of the word progressive in many advertisements. what other hidden persuaders do you see in marketing?

The Hidden Persuaders, by Vance Packard

free associations of the day: loss of identity, masks, kamala harris proximity, changing of guard around holidays, infrastructure.

Vic's twitter feed

Aug

20

1. banks take about 1000 billion out of market.
2.the algos run in front of you at all times. see the recent enforcement actions against white shoe firm.
3. after worst decline in us prestige in decades, the us dollar is only down to 116.80 from 20 day high of 118.20.

why do new traders trade foreign exchange when they could trade stocks and why do results show the futility of same?

Vic's twitter feed

Aug

19

Checkers wisdom

August 19, 2021 | Leave a Comment

in these perilous times and in honor of allen millhone's recent visit here,   it seemms appropriate to turn to some of tom wiswell's proverbs.

- position in checkers as in life is everything.
- on some days the dark clouds gather and you have to expect a storm.

i can hear tom looking over games i played with master and saying "red is strong". rite now the afghans are strong. we are begging them for mercy.

in addition to the afghans…afghans are strong — and the dax is strong. presumably the professor is contemplating the broach of a constructal number.

the us abandons bagram airport. "we dont have the forces to protect the airport." another of tom's proverbs and mine also: "the mouse with one hole is quickly cornered."

Vic's twitter feed

Aug

15

why does big corp, big sports, big unions, big centrals, big media love progressives, and why does the market go up as the trend continues? some hypotheses:

1. the progressives and those who favor centralized versus individual action are in control. better to be with them than against them.

2. they appoint all the regulatory officials, and these officials constantly make decisions that favor their supporters.

3. the big tend to be educated at the iveys and stanford where the dangers of socialism are not taught and centralized planning is lionized.

what are your explanations for while the market keeps going up as woke increases?

for big players - especially formerly investment banks, now banks - can directly make profits by becoming more woke, and having their executives make the rules that profit them especially meshing with the Fed and fellow travelers in all branches of government.

the mass person always prefers a system of handout to working, and the pickadees that nock mentions and galton talks about who are born to herd and not lead. as the handwriting becomes clearer, that is a stampede of surrender as in afghanistan now. better to live than be executed.

Vic's twitter feed

Aug

12

ridiculous and naive editorials in the wsj talk about how the other side has an inflation problem. but bonds went up today on the inflation numbers and it's forcasting a 1% or so inflation rate in the next 10 years and about 1.5% in next 30 years. problem is socialism.

stocks refuse to go down and bonds after many a yellow and red day refuses to go down more than its 20 day rather harmonious low.

everythings progressive today stocks should harmonize with capture of profits by master 1000.

gold finaly not being displaced entirely by crypto, makes a comeback down 75$ in a week.

as usual stocks go down on inflation numbers but bonds go up. who is rite and who is topsy turvy?

Vic's twitter feed

Aug

10

with bonds forecasting inflation of 1/2% or so, one would hope that the other side mite concentrate on the dangers of socialism not inflation.

gold in uncharted territory never been down as much. swamp now aims at desantis. aggregated weekly figures to make him look bad. but he's gaining on pele.

the chronic bear says bonds stop forecasting inflation. but if market participants felt that bonds were not consistent with no inflation, they would sell bonds and make a sure profit. markets are very smart and don't allow an oppportunity like that to pass.

Vic's twitter feed

Jul

29

Branch Rickey

July 29, 2021 | Leave a Comment

nobody asked me but the professor is in the catbird seat and branch rickey is the founder of sabermetrics. tom wiswell had a weekly checker game with branch rickey.

Branch Rickey: Baseball's Ferocious Gentleman

Jul

29

at the B&N on Market Street in Philadelphia which i visited over the weekend, i explored the business section to augment my recap of chapter 6 of Quixote.  i found all the finance books to be about panic or the decline of capitalism or the need for regulation to reign enterprise in, except for a book by ellis which, like all the other finance books, espoused the out-of-place-and-time methods of the Sage and his philandering  mentor.

i bought a big selection of them but the fire department picked me up for unsteady walking. (i wasn't wearing shoes and had my sneakers in my book bag so i fell.) and i left my books on a bike and they were stolen within 5 minutes which made my story seem not valid.

thus i can't relate to all the titles that espoused the graham & dodd, sage line, or the hoped for destruction of capitalism.

Vic's twitter feed

Jul

28

i recommend Brett Steenbarger's book The Psychology of Trading. it contains all sorts of fixes for emotional trading and reads like a mystery novel.

Brett's book is like a Paul Harvey story. it starts with a life or death situation from his counseling. then it shows how he solved the problem by applying trading wisdom.

i like his technique of talking out all your trades — and moving away from the market when it's going in your favor. also, all the wise words about the function of markets

Dr. Steenbarger's other works

Jul

28

good article on what is ruining baseball and why the Yankees lose so much when ahead and turn to analytics. they don't take account of ever-changing cycles and rely on one metric rather than the panoply.

State Of Analytics: How The Movement Has Forever Changed Baseball – For Better Or Worse

Jul

25

the duckworth-tukey test for differences between medians is useful and interesting and novel. i will give an example later. test 93 from 100 Statistical Tests by Gopal K. Kanji is unusual, useful for testing diffs between medians. consider the smallest observation from one distribution and the largest observation from the other. then take the overlaps

Jul

25

lawyers have been effusive in cross examining the niceties of witnesses in political testimony but I wonder what the appropriate cross examining questions are when a witness says he doesn't know if laptop with dates and places and pictures are his own
 
one of dr. brett's techniques for better trading is to laugh at yourself.  ridicule. i am ridiculing myself for not racking up for new highs
 
anti-capitalism, anti-private-property, capture by the atlanta 100.  attempts at divisiveness and lockdown, pro marxism, agreed what could be worse?
 
let us not forget list of marxism that will lift the S&P to new constructal. the handling of the cuban revolt. they are not allowed to come to us (250000 fine for helping them) but the red carpet is laid out for those who likely vote blue for handouts
 
now while we're at it, the virtue signaling - no more cleveland indians and the general destruction and decryinig of our history

Jul

20

Vic's twitter feed

hopefully one side will have a better defense against marxism than that it creates  inflation
 
mentioned marxism in a bad way and lost subscribers.  the loss of subscribers had been much allayed since various suits and complaints
 
it's ironic to see masters 1000 and big tech rooting for marxism as in cuba or venezuala or russia — or are these just anomalies? presumably this idea is captured
 
keys to game. will sp make a dive before breaking the round, will crude turn around after 50-day low.  will compromise on infrastructure show complete nothingness of one side's agenda. how will big tech profit from the red herring of cancel and suppression
 
with all the anxiety and bearishness of the reacent declines, nasdaq is 1.5 from all time high after 3 down days in row
 
yesterday's move from 3:30 to 4:15 was 14th largest in history and the sixth largest from 3:30 to 5:00 pm. will it repeat or disappoint?
 
dare i say wihtout being canceled that news of pandemic increasing revals news of infrastructure as the fastest and most assured way of losing money to the bigs
 
one thing for sure is that the prodigal son is the perfect liar and is a model for the perfect lie

Jul

17

Vic's twitter feed

weak longs are margined out or scared out i think
 
why did not sogi have his day today after the 930 open? there was too much non-anti-government. the visceral reaction of every thinking person has to equate the suppression of views as a negative. the crime situation was non-anti also: a NYC attempted kidnapping
 
as the market refused to cross the sogi level after the open, one was reading bill browder's Red Notice and the situation is so similar
 
i have been inspired by chapter 6 of don quixote and wish to find the books that wanted to bring back the good old days of chivalry with don's critique of the bad old days. any suggestions as to which should be burned or saved would be appreciated
 
here's a pretty kettle of fish: bonds at a 5-month high, but stocks 4 days and 50  points from an all-time high. 1 day away from a non-quarterly expiration. becoming  clearer every day that suppression reigns supreme, and things are not what they seem in potomac
 
just a question of time until bonds pull stocks to new high. a guess: within 5 days

Jul

15

Vic's twitter feed

bonds continue their response to buying of bonds by Fed and pronouns of Treasury. still  some groups-not getting handouts. buying of votes reigns supreme
 
miss sarah, one notes that crude is at a sane or almost a 29-day minimum at 7250 with the only lower price having occurred on wed june 7 at 7213.  would you say that crude is due for a rise?  the numbers and distance are fairly bullish
 
note to self: if you wish not to lose all followers, don't refer to atlanta 1000, don't refer to family grifters, don't talk about suppression, don't mention the unmentionable founder of multivariate statistics, especially vis a vis diversity and crime
 
burning of books here. bill gross on investing, back files of alan abelson's column, one book falls out: Justin Mamis The Nature of Risk: Stock Market Survival & the Meaning of Life. "life is like stock market, the fear of death causes you to exit too early the mid life crisis causes excessive trading". a keeper
 
don't throw out Justin Mamis books i exhort susan as she throws out all my books and says if we just waited for the all time highs as we did in the childrens' 559 trusts, we'd be much better. but then i read in the nature of risk: venturing is just a beginning 
 
venturing can be cut short by fear and worse by the settling for the ego satisfaction of having tried - "getting out too early us as if to avoid death by tiptoeing  away". another book refuses to burn and I find it life sustaining 

Jul

13

Vic's twitter feed

an archetypical day so far we stand for assembly and rite for familys to profit and a series of all-time highs with a strong opening on Monday.
 
an archetypical day. inflation looks bad so stocks go down 1000 but bonds go up 10 ticks
 
but everything's infrastructure. nw it will be harder to promote unionization
 
which of these words will lead to greatest suppression, anti-americanism, the artistic son, the american flag raised in south, unionization
 
a certain economist from chicago noted that comerce creates freedom. no better example of this than the grey lady displaying a 1st page ad for patrick o brian works which are heroic and support the great contirbution of the English Navy to civilizatn in 19th century
 
finally the anti-americanism reaches a maximorum and by comparison its a maximum

Jul

11

Red Notice

July 11, 2021 | Leave a Comment

the book Red Notice by Bill Browder provides an exciting introduction to starting a business amid many doubters. i recommend it for young people interested in starting a business and anyone interested in how a quant can realized his goals amid the infrastructure.

Jul

7

Vic's twitter feed

it can't get better than a visit by the post office, or their agencies to one's establishment. one hates to make money on this maximum of de-independence and will play the new all time high with trepidation and loathing.
 
one guesses that crude will go up and bonds and stocks will go down…there's a trifecta. lets see how many are wrong.

Jun

30

Westerns

June 30, 2021 | Leave a Comment

Vic's twitter feed

i am asked for best western films that do not show hatred and shame of Americanism. i would recommend these be heard on audible, especially The Time It Never Rained.
 
one notes that the 50 best westerns recommended are heavy on debunking of the spirit of individualism and adventure that characterizes the best westerns i would recommend High Noon, The Man Who Shot Liberty Valance, Shane, and the stage coach movies.
 
i don't watch movies to great extent nowadays as it hurts my eyes and makes me late for 7am ET markets. would some readers recommend heroic westerns that don't depend on a single fast gunfighter like the clint eastwood sagas? i like monte walsh for what it could have been.
 
when i wish to regain the spirit of adventure, americanism, individualism, and heroism nowadays that used to characterize westerns, i listen to the patrick obrian novels, narrated by patrick tull. it is ironic that an english author provides so much of this.
 
any westerns by Jack Schaeffer contain the understanding of nature that Loui Lamour has with good character development and appreciation of women and heroism.
 
for timeless adventure and understanding of place and relevance to current days, whenever i have a bad day in markets and are displeased with modern trends i like to listen to don quixote. it requires a day and a half of listening from start to finish but any snippets, chapters.

Jun

24

just read meredith wilson's book on work involved in writing The Music Man. so many details involved in the 7 years it took to write the musical and get it produced…last minute changes in previews in Philly and on opening nite. tension and anxiety simlar to waiting for certain premier similar to con man in music man in talking about the sagacity of a leader in the us.  but he did know the territory.
 
self-interview part 7: i like musicals. I've seen all of them. Jack Barnaby started my interest when he played pirates of penzance in my brighton beach home. i had just come from a disastrous event. Ned Bigelow was the main sponsor of squash in that day. he was 80 and was the worst referee in the world besides stu bruans. I thanked bigelow after the game and he said "i didnt do much." I said "that's rite." that remark cost the squash association hundreds of thousands of dollars. I didn't know any gilbert and sullivan then but subsequently saw every show of theirs especially enjoying the bluehill performances (who played the whole repertoire of 22 shows in order, each one magnificent). I knew I was in love with susan my wife at 22 when I called her from a pay phone (something i never did because i am a germaphobic) and told her that she must see the blue hill performance of Mikado. i subsequently saw bluehill perform Mikado on 4 separate occasions each 10 years apart. in addition to G&S, i admire oscar hammerstein as one of the greatest poets of the 20th century.
 
I wish to tell about the 3 greatest hero set pieces in all literature which sustain me and is one of the most ennobling experiences of my life. the three are the railroad scene from atlas shrugged, the stock scene with jack aubrey's old shipmates all come to prevent the enemies and insiders from throwing rocks at him, and the scene from meredith wilsons' book, the music man, where the understudy performs the whole show with 3 hours notice in Philly with the whole cast cuing and rooting him on. I am at the stage where any set piece in a musical is likely to make me cry (a characteristic i inherited from artie).
 
the other reason I am writing this selfie now is that it's just a matter of time perhaps a day or two at most when the S&P will rise to yet another all time high. its' been 7 days since the last all time high, and that's too long. i hope this guess is compensation for you for reading my stories inscribed in this selfie in the middle of a critical market.

Jun

22

typical running out of weak longs at bitcoin 28000, now up proverbial 15% to 31200.  it's guaranteed to happen.
 
euphemism of the day for description worthless but seeming sense: "gold in choppy waters". what other seemingly sentient things are said to hide their ignorance and uselessness?
 

Vic's twitter feed

Jun

21

Prime Day

June 21, 2021 | Leave a Comment

how does the surge of buying around prime day and the opening of wallets affect stocks? can this effect be generalized?

Jun

20

Vic's twitter feed

"agreement reached that we will not rock the boat tomorrow but will show our steadfastedness and support in the twins agenda thereby reenforcing our job longevity and our market value on the speakership trail"
 
we try to set an example for all our employees and customers. do everything by the book and dont let your guard down. and especially if we are virtuous ourselves lets make sure that the customers are doubly virtuous.
 
fed adopts approach to averaging that shiller, working adopted. let average stay at 2% but the current level be 10% and the past levels be 1%. it averages to 2% the same way p/e are 100 if you use earnigns 20 years ago. 
 
whats it like to be a big brokerage with constant calls on the market — which must be wrong in order to make profits for oneself.
 
what can we learn in markets from how things are seldom what they seem and what can i learn so as not to lose all  followers: Deception in animals
 
i am asked whether the big up move in bonds and the big down move in stocks portends anything predictive. on a qualtiative basis the big move in stocks was due to option expiration and the opportunity for the big boys in the infranstructure to take money from the public.
 
qualtiatively there is no reason for bonds to be up and stocks to be down. if there is inflation worries, then bonds should have been down big. but there are no inflation worries. only oldhearted men who refuse to adjust are concerned about inflation with bonds at this level.
 
however on a quant basis the stocks seem to have a bad monday in for them.  if same happens, there should be a big rise on Tuesday in stocks. the spus at a 18-day low, not quite a 20-day low, to remove all frustration when  the frustration is released by a 20 day lo, then S&P way up.

Jun

20

Vic's twitter feed

Nadal and Djokovic are incredibly slow for great players. they cant get to 3/4 of all the drop shots hit their opponent. Djokovic stretches too often from  base line instead of taking the extra step. i understand that Chrissie said it was the greatest match but from the screen it looked lackluster. one thing we can all learn from the match is to stop exulting and playing for the audience. if they each stopped emoting when they won a point, they'd have much more energy and concentration at the end. a market player should not talk or emote ever,
a good fast player gets to every drop shot. i never let the ball bounce twice against me in racket sports and i wasn't even fast. also, their overheads were hit down the middle not for winners like Federer. Nadal 's lugubrious style makes him slow to front.
 
by the way i admittedly was the slowest top squash player and had the lowest physical IQ of any players. but when I played tennis i never let an opposing drop shot bounce twice against me. i played thousands of tennis matches and was number 1 on very weak Harvard tennis teams.
 
finally my prediction of Nadal's decline comes true after 12 years. he looks like he's struggling on each shot like a hippopotamus. his mechanical advantage appears to be minus.
 
note that my prediction was made in the midst of Nadal winning the first set. i was also the first to say that Porzingis was a liability who would hurt every team he's on and same for Dantoni. i wish my knowledge and predictions of markets were half as good as my racket.
 
a wristy shot is destined to lose in the pinch in tennis or markets. that's why Tsitsipas will never win and how one predicted Novak would win and why flagellations at the close are non-starters.

Jun

18

• Stocks are back to their old timey habits of setting a new all-time high on 30% of the days in 2021 versus 23% of all days since 2001. The masters 100 companies know on which side of the bread there's butter and they embrace.
 
• The normally quasi-useful, quasi-academic Jason Zweig writes disparagingly of "investors" who buy a stock "purely because it's gone up a lot". But that must be tested.  The last good study I've seen on that is 20 years old. I believe it's a better-than-darts strategy.
 
• The 30-year bonds have gone up 5% since the beginning of may. The Fed has been vigorous in enforcing proper pronouns and gender speech to their numerous employees and research grantees but seems to be heart felt on helping the infrastructure along.
 

Vic's twitter feed

Jun

17

Vic's twitter feed

nothing about options trading — except it emphasizes a point i made in edspec that you should never trade an inactive market, you should never trade where the vig is large, and you should never trade with a few men named doc who worked at the same hospital.
 
the sander introduced the meeting and said that he met many traders who noted the implied volatility being much too  high. "to a man" he said, "all of those former traders have gone belly up." i referred to Jean Valjean at the trial of a criminal who was going to be falsely accused of stealing the candlesticks. i also referred to davy crocker sending out 5000 posters to his constituents acknowledging that he made a terrible mistake in voting for funds for a georgetown fire.
 
Not Yours to Give (the Davy Crockett story)
 
The one good thing that happened was that Dr. Merton the sociologist father at 80 years old wrote to me afterwards and asked me for the reference to the davy crockett story so I met him.
 
The only good thing that came out of my poker playing was that I visit the gamblers book shop in vegas whenever i go there. artie bailed me out of a $1000 loss in college and he had to go to the credit union to do it.

Jun

17

the pickle ball top players have as much ability as their tennis counterparts. they all have excellent reflexes and volleys at net and seem as fast.

Ben Johns vs Tyson McGuffin - Men's Singles GOLD Match Highlights - PPA Atlanta Open 2021

Jun

17

Vic's twitter feed
 
i lost a case with the jury taking 5 minutes to decide unanimously against me.  next the policeman who arrested me sued me for causing 1/8 of his heart attack. my college roommate Wes Horton defended me but the tables were stacked. my experiences in court have been like that.
 
what brings this to mind is the Virginia Chinese mom had her comparison to the cultural revolution shortened to 1 minute. she's lucky she didn't try to complain as I did. picture of arrest forthcoming.
 
for once the core CPI created more cost for the borscht and blintzes at the camp than the unadjusted figures.
 
this was a very progressive day. the meme stocks went down, GME -39% and AMC -13%. the top feeders made money with yet another all time high and the public lost big. further, the news of big guys son was canceled apace despite the Chris Harrison comp.
 
the WAPO fact checkers lame attempt too suppress the actuality of the meeting of the big guys son was buried, and no shout outs to the warp speed's incredible efficacy compared to current regs and procedures was noted. all things considered, it was a very bull day.
 
to say nothing about yet another 60-day high for bonds and the leeway this gives the infrastructure union dream to proceed apace.  all we need is some slight diminution in the recovery and climate change and union activity  will be at an all-time high.
 
it is good that the big pharms that suppressed the news of the efficacy and readiness of the vaccine until 1 day after the election is being rewarded by "Prez plans to purchase 500 million does of Pfizer vaccine to donate to other countries". a reward, a scratching back.
 
in the good old days i made mistake of insisting that i get paid in fulll for all the finders fees I earned. what a terrible mistake. i let my competitiveness in racket sports carry over to negotiations. often i was offered  a 10% reduction and I refused and ended up with zero.

Jun

16

June 8

One woke up as if in a nitemare and heard a former candidate saying "we have to keep climate from advancing more than 1 1/2 degrees."  next a shot across the bow from the camp: "it would be fine if interest rates were to increase. and don't let this hinder the infrastructure."

amid the 99% anti-former-president news on Bberg, one occasionally heard an unbiased and unrehearsed piece. the chief scientist at John Hopkin opined that those who were vaccinated had no reason to wear a mask as they weren't susceptible or transmissible.
 
June 9
 
i have found that all my interactions with police and judges where i have stood on principle have ended up in disasters for me. I am often asked what artie would say about police diversity interactions these days. i believe he would have been in favor of a civilian corps to monitor traffic infractions. But his student, Bill McCarty, author of Vice Cop and holding the record for number of arrests, believes that problem is that now the arrested are resisting it rather than peaceably acceding. presumably the hate of police in the air engendered by the agrarians who wish to destroy civility incentivizes the problem.
 
Delta airlines came within a whisker of removing me from the plane. There were an infinity of progressive things   that were endemic and carefully mentored but little attention to passenger comfort, e.g. gates 1/2 mile from baggage claim that was cryptic.
 
in earlier days, i would have insisted that it was ridiculous to be timed on the interval between eating and masking, that i insisted on being left alone. but then the stewardess had the captain announce a warning that fbi and red coats would be waiting for any violators.
 
i come back from chicago. susan knows i'm too cantankerous to survive (how close i came to being arrested) but that's another story. worst of all is wheeling my luggage. i cant do it and am too proud to call for a wheelchair. sure enuf when I reach the baggage floor, there's susan. she's gently telling  the delta policeman that they shouldn't explode my lonely bag — that  her husband is always late.

Jun

10

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/see-the-most-bizarre-and-beautiful-animal-eyes-on-earth/?fbclid=IwAR3rbQHW-wXitATV4Bamu1xzYbyEqyjGEooEqhbATQz6P3PBnEIcogqDVDg
A marvelous look at the wonders of nature and the miracle of animal eyes
…there is probably much more in nature - and certainly in markets as well- which our own eyes could perceive…..and something to share with younger traders in particular
And the incredible thing with miracles is that they happen, too…

Jun

10

You wouldn't think that the Bad One is familiar with 'all that Ms. Lasked did to stop Immunological research but somehow they do. in 1980 Livingstone wheeler , followers wrote names articles how Mary Lasker stopped research on immune approaches to cancer but cant find these article any more except for her support of the increasing budget from 3 m to 1000 bill so I take back my post about her harm.

Boys put on masks and head for evening haunts.

I was temporally derailed form axcertaining all the harm that the chair woman did to cancer research. either all her bad work has been sanitized or my recollection is flawed. we shall see when the professor gets back. apparently the admin is hoping for a good jobs report increase ( forget about the infrastructure for a while), and they are talking the good effort that the cdc did with vaccinations adding to jobs as mentioned they were in a pair of pants.

Reminds one of the Yankees talking about how all their 159 average hitters are improving. how can the yabikkees survive with so much bad hitting in the end of their line up. apparently the algos admire the former chairwoman as I continue to lose subscribers. that's okay ill find her insidious work that helped to cost Artie his life along with Burton the head of the private counterpart that worked hand in hand with the chemo de riigeur

Nobody asked me but why is the current vilification of Dr. Cattle so surprising given that he wrote a love letter to the cattle trader and was obviously a tool of the cattle trader wing.

He certainly was one of the forces that sunk Pele in so many ways but especially denying the imminence of the vaccine along with the masters 100 and the two friends who worked together at Rice. why did they hate Pele so much its not cricket with all the meme stocks that the bottom feeders have in their portfolios going thru the roof. there ought to be a law.

Larry Ritter challenged me to find 1 000 ways. and then he would tell me about the legitimacy of the maestros thesis as he was the thesis adviser. he gave me a death bet confession and a publics that it was a fake. a bunch of old routine pieces that his firm had disseminated surely the ratio of pig iron production to recreational vehicles in Elkardt was somewhat out of focus "it s impossible to figure out where Dr.cattle was on these issues because we don't know" a fox investigator announcer of diversity. why is it so hard to future out he wrote a love letter to the cattle trader and every interview he gave had the effect of hurting those who his interviews had the effect of hurting al those who didn't receive 99725 in cattle trading . my article with Ms. Baum called out the only mystery. what happened to the other $275.one more into the breach

Jun

10

If you'd lie to see mentions occasionally to the founder of multivariate statistics and the birch back canoes of the Chippewa Native Americans do consider retweeting my tweets lest they vanish.

foxnews.com/sports/mike-krzyzewski-retire-duke will this effect the record for foul shots and defense of the constructal numbers

Coach k's departure ahs disheartened some of the constructal shooters… only a 15 point range all day and night today with a new move of onlly1 ticket from the open of 4206.

Self interview part 5. what are the best quantitive things for market people to read. instead of concentrating on calculus a nd differential equations, aspiring students should read a good book on discrete mathematics. I lie James anderson discrete mathematics but discrete mathematics with applications by rosen is also popular and good. In statistics the best books for aspirants for biostatics books. I like Wayn Daniel biostatistics and I go thru it once a week to keep in shape it has good sections on regressions , estimations  Wayne Daniel bio statistics. most of the usual stats books are much too specialized for the beginner. however, a good book on survival analysis like survival analysis and event history by d. Kleinbalm is essential. the amazing thing about stats books these days are they are all based on data analysis and r and lies with statistics. very worthless. i seem that that statistics 11th edition by Robert white is modern most recommended. a typical discrete math book has section ono logic, s ets, circuit diagrams, graphs, and trees, umber theory, counting and prob, recursion, difference equations ( my favorite, , networks, theory of codes, enumeration of colors krings etc.. all of these topics a re much more useful for the market person than knowing how to differentiate and integrate I am dining with stigler on Monday, June 7, a tradition honoring our parents and mentors which we have continued for 30 years and I will ask him what stats texts he recommends to his intermediate students and report back.

A good article on coach k's style ishttps://www.newsobserver.com/sports/college/acc/duke/article123638384.html I was going to write on his style but since I don't know anything about basketball I thought I should leave it at this, except I have been impressed that he has led his freshmen to almost as may titles as the seniors, also, his players continently win scholar athlete awards, and defensive awards. he says he picks players based on character, scholarship, a nd talent. apparently he dies. he also brings back all this players to a summer camp that keeps them in touch with the for met greats. my two duke students camp out under a tent for 3 days annually to get tickets to the game where duke has won something like 95%of the games at Cameron stadium with non- conference teams. since he is 50 years older than his players he keeps in touch with music.

What has regulation wrought and how many years would it have taken for a covid vaccine for the Chippewa Native American in current style.

There was a listlessness in late 18th century France as many children of the first estate were without jobs and espoused the theories of Rousseau. Both Veridi and Mozart wrote about the lack of work effort of Paris musicians and both walked out on rehearsals. Mr. Hansen has compared the situation to Petronius Satiricon Spirit of Mary Lasker lives 

Jun

10

Keys to game today. many manufacturing indexes around 10 am et. will there be camp meeting to lower them or will we wait for transport on thus afternoon before employment.

Wasn't the euphoria over Phil Jackson a precursor of what we now see in the professional sports leagues.

Shout out to Irene Morrison a great business woman and friend of 60 years. shout out to Rorianne Schrade the greatest pianist I ever heard and a genius. I beg of her to indicate whether Leopold Mozart's father was a bad influence on him in his waning years. and whether the biographies I love and have posted are fair and accurate.

Jun

8

https://www.wsj.com/articles/government-race-against-a-cure-11622669124?mod=hp_opin_pos_1

Jun

8

Self interview part 2 cont. I wore those Keds to my first tennis tournament and all the other boys made fun of me. and my first round opponent called out to the 1 seed l'll see you in the finals" that got me so angry that I won the match and lost in the finals to a Lebhar

I've always had several defects in my tennis game and never achieved much in the game. I played a lot of double with my father however, and always was the 1 doubles team. My partner frank Ripley told me at a 5oh reunion that I was the worst double player he ever partnered that wasn't much of a test in those days because Harvard had outdoor courts only and the wind was usually 50 miles an hour. after one victory Jack barnaby the great rackets coach and a mentor I revere contract. me for a very smart game. At that time I told him my most memorable  and stupid thing ever " that's nothing Jack, wait till you see me in that other game you coach( i had never played squash) ill be the champion at it" that remark has followed me in infamy

The 30 year long bond price has been between 157 and 158 for several months, an incredibly small range. all the talk about an inevitable increase in yields and what this will do to devastate stock rices seems to be overwrought to say the last. take the fear of the.

Employment announcement for May 7, there are warning s that this mite make the Fed hasten the tapering. but it will de pend on how likely the stimulus bills will be k, what the likely effect on the 2022 elections will be, how much pressure the twins will exert to will accentuate the need to hyper start the economy, the desire of Chanceg ardner to stay as chief and myriad other things including the need for more borrowings relative to the expectation rite now. In any case , its anyone's game and the most ridiculous thing. is to see

a giant move either way , e.g. socks go down because t because tbondpices should go down but bond prices aactuallygo up and vice versa

The fear of bond price declines which is the favorite talking point of the old guard especially is fanned by the general climate of fear that is endemic now. the fear of pandemic, the fear of service increase, the fear of war, the fear of breakdown in crypto

The fear of climate change, : all these fears tend to be more harmonious for those who favor more government efforts to allocate capital

Certain bureaus a re well known since the time of the tricky one to hold meeting at the camp before release and would anticipate that there will be a decision to eubonicize numbers to downsize so that infrastructure will be apace.

I've enjoyed the relation and narration of John Sterling and susan waldman , together for 30 years. Larry ritter listened to them rather than television 20 years ago and alerted rookies like me. But but, the yankees have commercials that make the listener.

Listener small. they talk about racism, and depravity, and inequity and make you ashamed to enjoy baseball while the world and U. S. is so bad. Almost as bad as the NY gov. commercials bi 5 deputy commissioners of diversity and the geico commercials which make you ashamed.

Thank you Native American tribal financial overseer of the Chippewa Dean Parisian for many years for followig and retweetig my humbel thoughts 

Dean Parisian your retweets of my humble thoughts to your former tribal clients tend to counterbalance mine regarding how bad baseball commercialls make you feel these days. By the way , Larry Ritters bet friends on the yankees bus were nicknamed Native American or what Larry Ritters book on the good old days when baseball was the National Pastime,

Self Interview part3, " vic tell us the story about meeting Paul Volker in Larry's hospital bed." Paul was a friend of Larrys and worked for him while Larry was chair of Ny Finance. He came to visit Larry while the collab and I were there to help Larry. To make conversation I suggested to Paul that the Glory cassetes and cds were very moving. Paul said that he didn't have a recorder , television or cassette because he didn't believe in technology he felt it was redundant and wasteful and expensive. He hated technology almost as much as the sage  no wonder Paul was lionized for brining the us economy to a halt by raising interest rates from 5% to 18% as it brought business and enterprise to a standstill

Jun

8

Self interview inspired by Tim Ferris. part 1. Name 5 books that you listen to or read that you would gift to friends every day. 1. the time that it never rained; Elmer Kelton. 2. don Quixote Michael Cervante. 3. The Life and works of Mozart Jeremey Shipman. 4 Far. side of the world Patrick Brian- 5: How Innovation works Matt Ridley 6: Monte Walsh jack Schaeffer 7; Life and Works Giuseppi Verdi– Jeremy shipman.

Self Interview part 2. :Tell us a story or teach us something: My father Arthur Niederhoffer was the perfect man. 5 librarians cam to his funeral and 7 people toale me that they loved him like an older brother. He hated gambling. told me repeatedly that all gamblers die broke.

Part 2 cont: liked to tell me the story of one of his best friends who lost everything in a card game on his way to his wedding. One day at the age of 11 , Moey Orenstein the greatest doubles handball player suggested that I play George Baskan a former pro baseball player who had a temper and broke his hand against the wall after missing an easy off the wall shot in handball. He was the best paddle ball player. I did not know Moey even knew me. I won a betting game 21-14 and my uncle Howie a handball champ said he'll never forget how I blocked Baskan out an out strategized him. at the e nd of the game, the bettors gave me a pair of Sneakers(big black Keds ) from Milties a retired policeman who knew how to vulcanize a rubber guard on Keds. MY father came into the bach after a 4-12- shift and I ran up to him , said Dad , I just beat Baskin and I won a pair. " that terrible he said. give the sneakers back I don't want you to be a gambler. you'll lose everything and become a degenerate." i became very popular in the media when I won my first Squash Nationals at age 20. Most of the popular mag mags ran big picture stories about me. They all liked to tell the Baskan story. Artie saw the stories and said " leave Baskan alone. You're embarrassing him"

Jun

8

Weekend associations nearness to all time highs, native Americans drums , dance, filibusters, unmasking, exuberance, Deidre, Matt, Kelton, Milano, pseudo science, Dr. cattle ,Holiday moves around Memorial day, professor rests after miss, new gen. in tennis, Joke to win Fr.

Jun

8

To my native American followers of Chippewa origins or other — until the Nikkei hits 3000, now 3% below and the s hits 42200, not 1/10% away , there has not been a consilience, a resolution of earthly cares, no more frustration,— harmony.

To my native American followers, the great white father dined at café Milano with Ukrainian diplomats and left big tracks.

Jun

8

Let the algo know that one of most loyal followers is dean Parisian who served as chief financial adviser to Chippewa native American tribe they should stop taking followers away from me for past references to dR. Cattle , the cattle trader, the Kindergarten twins.

Chance Gardner. the American dream, old man river, the Masters 100 and how the market loves progressives ,and why checkers is more stem and just as complex as chess.

Little known and important fact Dr. Brett Steenbarger was the basketball team manager of coach K, Duke team30 years ago . It was he that told me about the coaches rule of 10 consecutive foul shots before heading to entertainment and study. dr. Brett is one of those persons

Dr. Brett cando anything.. But I discovered and promote him 30 years ago. He has been kind to acknowledge that fact but in truth he would have risen to the top regardless of my helping hand.

I am sure he would be pleased that I use the 10 foul shots to lionize duke prof, a. Bejan to accentuate the markets 50000 fold a century drift 

Jun

8

Hello professor Bejan,, were you shooting some hopps with coach z

Professor does coach k still make you hit 10 foul shots in a row before you can get back to you normal activities. would you kindly ask him for a furlough 

The professor will be back after study period he still has a few to go. it reminds one of the man who holds the consecutive foul shooting record. he stopped at 1346 inn a row on a make. the darn gym closed.

http://recordholders.org/en/list/freethrows.html

May

25

Closing Time

May 25, 2021 | Leave a Comment

Sushil Kedia writes:

Closing TIme of key contracts, around the world has the same character feeding the vig. Irrespective of whether this character speaks Japanese, Korean, Chinese, Malaysian, Hindi, Pashto, Hebrew, German, English or American English. 

The compulsion to not carry a losing trade overnight, to square off excess positions that cannot be funded overnight etc. etc. provide a good enough number of hands who are willing to be forced out and required to be forced out at close. 

If I can spot, from my back-benches in global finance a ready made bunch of pigs to be slaughtered everyday, I am wondering why wont the 200 Billion Dollar Liquidity pumps whether run by a rocket scientist or by anyone would not be already squeezing them hour by hour as the sun moves from the East to the West? 

Wondering what is a good way to structure a study that tries to isolate statistical evidence for reversing extremas N minutes before the close of related exchanges. 

Say the Closing TIme of top 5 liquidity producing exchangs of crude future world over are noted down and a statistical study of N minutes before closing time and after closing time of each of these 5 exchangs throws up a pattern? 

And then if equity index futures that produce the top 10 volumes even if each equity index contrat is a distinct entity, is there a closing time ebb and flow that is being created by the Scientists' algorithms?  

Victor Niederhoffer writes

This is a very interesting and  an suggestive post. let's have some   feedback on ow to approach this query 

Jared Albert  writes

I think closing time/price as the sole predictor is too broad and noise will swamp any effect. 

So, to me,  the first step is classify the various conditions that exist before the close. For example, days up vs down, up/down on day, distance from x day max/min etc.

There are so many predictor variables that I don't think this is a frequentist kind of problem lending itself to logistic regression and lots of crosstabs for example.

So step one is a machine learning classification model to separate the states using the closing time movement as the target for training. 

IF it turns out that there are classifiable 'set-ups', then one could run analysis within the most promising classifications.

May

25

The 30 year bond, the long bond has had a 1 full point range for each day of the last two month that's not cricket in terms of forcing public to make contributions from being forced out due to excessive moves.

Demand replay at the constructal number as to whether it's good

I meant demanded video review of 4200 level crossed the plane or not?

May

25

What is best way to model probability of 9 greens or reds in a row and how can one predict crypto from here.

Reading time Ferris tools for titans again and I cant do the things that the warriors suggest there like getting up at 430 and doing 1000 push ups and pullups before going to gym as I had a stroke and was the least athletic champion in racket sports ever, and I abhor Keto

As all the best studies shows that eating a Mediterranean or Okinawa diet adds 8 year sot your life, but the book got me thinking of the most important market question now. the last 20 days high was 4227 , 10 days ago, and the last 20 days low was 4056 , 8 days ago. were now

Now were at 4156 , about half way between the 20 day ow and high, — what is more likely to come in the future. what is the expectation from here, and what is duration?

The entire ecosystem changes as crypto goes down and other markets will change in density and stability.. see Princeton guide to ecology l but in which direction. perhaps Mr. Sogi has an inside

See evolution of communication and ecosystems by Nicoal Loeuille. its all there. There stands Mr. Sogi stable as a caterpillar drinking his Kona coffee again with alacrity and harmony 

May

25

A non-handian run of 9 extremes of red or blue. thanks to Aubrey for showing me how to use snipping tool correctly.

There's still a little bit more from top feeders to take from the public.. any little thing is enough.

Reminiscing at a party where a solutuosu guest told Artie that she could defend herself form Mugging with karate she and learned. Now Artie was at Brooklyn collage in wrestling and boxing and football

To be a cop in those days you had to pass a physical that 1 in 200 passed. at the party goers urging Artie grabbed the karate woman in a hold and she meekly surrendered. That was the only time in 40 years of marriage I ever saw my mother Artie fight

True story. but what was the wrestling hold that Artie put her into?

At this rate I wont have any followers left lost about 50 today must have been that Milton Friedman article about why some who were non-establishment became anti establishment and anti capitalist. One must no use the term of their faith here. would be interested to see if founder of Facebook is ashamed also took a half hour longer than usual to hit lows once more into the breach.

Interesting descriptive fact. only once in history had stocks stayed above opening on options expirations at 1130 looked like an anomaly at 1120

May

20

Majesty

May 20, 2021 | Leave a Comment

These is a beauty to the fateful way the  stocks followed  their  inevitability  today with a nice  100  big point range and everything of duplicity  in between,

May

20

Strange as it seems my guess is that it will stop its Herculean rise in 15 miniute . and then a little negativity after that the construal's back on for a record but let me emphasize this is only a wild guess , especially when one goes against the drift.

One had a reminiscence with my latest wild guess . I wrote a book in which I suggested that practiciones that (cont) https://tl.gd/n_1srmle7

As tom said " take care of the draws and the wins will take care of themselves. ill call this one a slit win -Darwish. with the vig I the infrastructure is the only one that profits.

One is reminder that Hobo said to me " you should pay me to be around you because I am the only one that makes you look good by comparison. the infrastrue and the market makers should pay me for making wild guesses where the only one that profits is them.

Nikkei jumps 20 as operatives exit hotel.

You have to hand it to the ingenious innovator. he realizes that only way to make a sustained profit like the palindrome and the sage and all the other bilious billionaires is to become a climate person. we're ruining things with global change. reduce the service audits by 99%

I sold some spf at 1100 pm est at 4120.00 and made a few pts out of it . unbelievably from 11000 to 1130 pm was the only half hour it went up yet. as I don't ever like to be short, I read birth to a salesman y by Walter Friedman an excellent book. I learned about ncr in 1903 " thru news letters journals and speeches, Patterson communicated his theories about work and life to ncr agents. it frequently ran articles on work of horace fletcher, the advocate of thoroughly masticating freedom he hired Charles Paalmer who displayed active

Palmer active intertext in phrenology , physiognomy.. Patterson was obsessed by the numeral 5 and we spent endless time on it. for example, 5 things they must do and 5 things they must avoid. some thought Patterson a lunatic," what company today is like the ncr of yesterday.

I often tell my kids and guests to thoroughly Fletcherite the food we have

Incredibly the pprobability of Kamala Harris versus Biden for the pres. nomination in 2024 decreased today. apparently " not supposed to speak " is a sign of strength

Boys have lots of energy after "resting with cigarette"

Hats off to the algo for figuring that one out and canceling some of my good followers who all believe like me and grand innovator in climate

There is a certain beauty and majesty as to how the lobogola today was so fateful and how deceptive it was

As the man who can not be named would say " this is a grandeur in this view of life and markets

Andy Aiken hit the nail on head Andrew Aiken via http://simplelists.com 2:52 PM (1 minute ago) to spec-list (cont) https://tl.gd/n_1srmlp2

You cant have breakfast all day

Had some mutton at Keens after doing a little shorting at close. see you fair Germany https://keens.com/historyofkeens/

While at Keens one mite have been able to try the mutton sampler and the Lamb with the proceeds of that last 20 pt drop if one was not just a ageing shooting star.

" No men on horses will be served at bar"

May

12

Nasdaq2 at 13346 and SP at 4149 .. double sogi's a rare need a telescope in honor of Harold Weaver a most eminent and amical and sagacious astronomer who audited my class at the suggestion of another great MFM Osborne.

Can you take a minute from the surfing to prepare some Kona, Mr. Sogi 

May

12

foxnews.com/lifestyle/bill-melinda-gates-navigate-dating-after-divorce-experts perhaps Bill will be looking for a Asian woman who knows many languages. . as Rumpole say:" why is it always the woman that causes the rift :"

May

7

Mozart

May 7, 2021 | Leave a Comment

The bio  Life of Mozart  by Edward Holmes is highly recommended. Holmes is the  ideal biographer . He was a fine musician and  read  of Mozart's letters and spoke to all who know Mozart and  read the originals of all  of Mozart's compositions.  The book was written info 1840 and describes  all aspects of  Mozart's life. I found the   hereditary genius part  based on  his father Leopold  was a fine man who  was a scholar of violin. Mozart himself had a ebullient  persona and was always gullible.  he could write music from the time he as 5 and  could  play an p  piece at sight  or ear from   piano or violin. He used all the instruments in the orchestra and was  mall treated by  almost all the nobility especially the Electors  and Archbishop of Austria. You learn so  much and are inspired by the book.

May

7

The river has not yet breached the dam at 4200 at the end of light.

Query: what day in April was the last unemployment released? 

bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm

Thankfully the bonds receded today from their 20 day hi thereby the bond vigilantes return out of their hiding and drink juice.

The barrel didn't cross the plane .

Apparently the employment situation is favorable tomorrow. 

Pickleball coming to orange county for infrastructure 2 mill . along with just 1/4 million for infrastructure for former president. wife library. I a point of order. having played every racket game a nd according to Hobo Kelly. I was the best ever in the racket games, — the pickle ball top players are better than the comparable camps in paddle tennis and platform tennis. they can all hit backhand volleys flat hard.

All the top pickleball players dive for shots.. I saw pickle ball played in a Pittsburg coliseum that would have held 4 racquetball courts. it had 75 pickleball courts in it. The cost of laying down 1 pickleball court must be 1/100 of the cost of a racquetball court.

A heroical Vic, Few have heard of Carlos Hathcock despite the fact that he’s one of the most accomplished (cont) https://tl.gd/n_1srmdn1

Did the Sage give his approval after trying to bring them together in following his harmonious actions in refusing to allow spouse to continue as cocktail waitress?

Checked swing at 4199.50. question for our baseball experts. especially Mr. Bastian. it seems to a rookie like me that Cole on his pitch end up off balance on his left wobbly foot. doesn't this present him from proper defense? what is market analogy? 

Market fouls 4 balls at 4199.50 a quadruple top never holds. guessing that " she will go" she went while I writing this. 

 

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