January - 2026
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 S&P +8.00
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 S&P +43.25
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 S&P +44.00
 USB -0.05
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Copyright Dailyspeculations.com

Jan

6

I asked Gemini if the Nvdia stock price milestone dates associated with Jensen Huang's famous leather jackets. Here is the timeline of Jensen's jacket evolution alongside Nvidia’s stock milestones:

The one that caught my attention is Lizard Era in March 2024. At that time Nvdia price was around $100 and after Jensen's Lizard Jacket appearance Nvdia stock fell 20-25%. And here is Jensen while debuting new chips last night. We will learn soon if the Lizard Jacket is a helpful tool for front running Nvdia stock!

Steve Ellison likes the idea:

Very unique and insightful analysis. My wife read a biography of Mr. Huang. When he was growing up in Oregon, his immigrant relatives wanted to put him in a private school, but the school they enrolled him in was a reformatory. After that life experience, I am pretty sure that Mr. Huang can't be intimidated by Donald Trump or Xi Jinping.

Peter Ringel adds:

agree. probably useful insights can come from seemingly absurd corners. Like the weather of sports teams in NYC.

Jan

6

Markets from Networks: Socioeconomic Models of Production, by Harrison C. White, is one of the most realistic and profound understandings of the the entire industrial structure. highly recommended.

White argues that the key to economic action is that producers seek market niches to maximize profit and minimize competition. As they do so, they base production decisions not only on anticipated costs from suppliers and anticipated demand from buyers, but also by looking at their competitors. In fact, White asserts, producers act less in response to actual demand than by anticipating it: they gauge where competitors have found demand and thus determine what they can do that is similar and yet different enough to give themselves a special niche.

Vic's X/twitter feed

Jan

5

Markets approve

January 5, 2026 | Leave a Comment

today every major us market is up substantially showing the approval of the Maduro capture and its impact on wealth.

Vic's X/twitter feed

Jan

5

So where lies the thin line between liberating Venezuela and putting world into oil supply based recession?

Larry Williams comments:

The quality of their crude is a different issue we use to refine it here; sour, full of gravel etc.

Stefan Jovanovich writes:

Historically, before full sanctions in 2019, the US imported over 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Venezuelan crude, with refiners like Citgo (PDVSA-owned), Valero, Chevron, and Phillips 66 as top recipients.

More recently (post-2023 relief), Valero accounted for 44% of imports, Chevron 32%, and Phillips 66 10%.

Carder Dimitroff writes:

IMO, it's not about oil. The US is a net exporter. They're doing just fine without Venezuela. If heavy oil is desired for refining optimization, as some claim, there's a direct pipeline from Canada.

Stefan Jovanovich responds:

It would help if Carder focused on the use of heavy oil for marine diesel and bunker oil for steam turbines. Those are the essential propulsion fuels for China's Navy; hence, Hegseth's comment today assuring China that it would continue to receive its share of Venezuela's output.

Carder Dimitroff expands:

Globally, three major regions produce heavy crude: Russia, Canada, and Venezuela. Downstream, “heavy oil” or “heavy fuel oil” usually means the residual, high-boiling product left after lighter fractions (gasoline, diesel, kerosene, etc.) are distilled from crude. As Stefan suggests, heavy oil and bunker oil are growing markets, not only in China but also elsewhere.

In my opinion, the administration's interests in Venezuela reflect several interests. High on my list are Venezuela's untapped rare-earth elements (about 300,000 metric tons).

Pamela Van Giessen offers:

Interesting analysis here:

The Real Reason the Pentagon Approved Venezuela: Critical Minerals and Adversary Expulsion

The Department of War has allocated $7.5 billion under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act specifically for critical minerals, with $1 billion already deployed to stockpile antimony, bismuth, cobalt, indium, scandium, and tantalum. This is not economic policy. This is national security infrastructure. The United States is 100% import reliant for 12 critical minerals and over 50% reliant for 28 of the 50 minerals classified as essential to national security. These materials are not interchangeable. They cannot be substituted. They form the irreducible foundation of modern weapons systems.

Boris Simonder questions the thesis:

What rare earth does Venezuela hold that is proven and confirmed? Based on USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 and other sources like CSIS reports, Venezuela has no significant cobalt production or reserves listed. Antimony deposits exist but are small and underdeveloped, with declining output due to infrastructure issues.

Jan

4

European Natural gas - not that far to test 2024 lows, and perhaps even pre-Ukraine-war levels eventually? Peace coming (?) Or general decline in Gas prices (US natty has gone the other direction for a while).

"Price move first - fundamentals later." When something moves (even though I don't trade it - or have expertise in it yet), I often look at it and wonder what it could mean. Mass financial media hasn't picked up on this theme either (much) - another reason to consider what it means…

Carder Dimitroff comments:

For me, this is an important observation. EU-US fundamentals have changed. The current US administration "encouraged" the EU to accept US LNG imports. At the same time, US LNG export capacity has increased. For Europe, the supply-demand dynamics changed. In the next several months, it will continue to change:

• 14.49 Bcfd US LNG export capacity - current.
• 21.81 Bcfd US LNG export capacity - under construction.
• 13.24 Bcfd US LNG export capacity - approved but not under construction.
• 12.49 Bcfd US LNG export capacity - proposed and seeking approval.

Most of this LNG use capacity uses, and will use, Texas/Louisiana natural gas as its feedstock. Feedstock and LNG prices will likely be correlated with Henry Hub prices. If most of this capacity is built, the following trends are likely to emerge:

• US citygate (NG) average prices will float higher.
• US LMP (electric) average prices will float higher.
• US NGL average prices will sink.
• EU NG average NG and LMP prices will stabilize.

More importantly, global LNG markets are changing and will continue to change. Keep in mind:

• Global LNG capacity is expanding
• The US is not the LNG cost leader and never can be.
• As the US dominates EU imports, global markets adjusted accordingly.

Of course, traders should be indifferent about these long-term fundamentals. But long-term investors might consider options.

Stefan Jovanovich asks:

Follow-up question for Carder and others: "What do you think about the Doombird thesis that the Permian drillers and the mid-stream connectors will shift to have natural gas be the hydrocarbon asset that they look to make money from and oil will be the secondary source of income?"

Carder Dimitroff replies:

If the question concerns long-term prospects, global demand for diesel, jet fuel, plastics, and related products is expected to grow. Gasoline consumption may be slowing, but it is not crashing. But who knows where the economy is headed?

For the US, natural gas as a bridging fuel makes sense if it can reach consumers. In the US, domestic delivery is a problem. Globally, LNG delivery is also a problem, but for different reasons. Because they deliver to Henry Hub, producers should be indifferent between the two markets. Beyond Henry, LNG is becoming increasingly accessible, whereas citygates will continue to struggle.

The US is also a net exporter of oil and oil products. Again, the product supports two separate markets.

Most Permian wells produce oil and associated gas (and they are getting gassier). It's not a choice. They get both.

For me, the short-term challenge is global overproduction. Geopolitical considerations rather than economic factors drive the decision to overproduce and erode margins. It will end, and the markets will revert. Until then, it will be difficult for American producers to finance new wells.

Jan

3

From 2018: Investment boss in tearful video apology over losses

And a recent take on it: Fund Manager's Bizarre Apology Video

J. Humbert responds:

Reminds me of this one from a few years ago…

Fleeing investment manager offers victims teary bon voyage – Chicago Tribune

Charles Harris wiped tears from his eyes, looked straight at one of his friends and apologized for lying about the value of the commodity pool he oversaw.

This scene was recorded on one of three DVDs made aboard Harris’ boat as it was apparently heading away from the U.S. and the federal authorities who are looking for Harris.

Jan

1

From the archives:

Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh and Mike Staunton, Triumph of the Optimists. We cannot say too often that if you read one investment book, this should be it. Ever since its publication in early 2000, it has informed our approach to the market and served as a source of trading ideas. The first comprehensive international market database, this book by three distinguished London Business School professors belongs on the shelf of every investor, trader, policy-maker and economist. In all the sciences, great strides in seeing things how they are came about after the compilation and classification of data. At last we have something that builds on the University of Chicago’s Center for Research in Securities Prices, the U.S. database that led to an explosion in market knowledge and testing a generation ago.

Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh and Mike Staunton of the University of London Business School worked together on this massive project. Within Triumph's pages, an investor may find definitive information on inflation adjusted returns for stocks, bonds and treasury bills, real dividends, correlation between markets worldwide, and the relative performance of value and growth stocks.

Unlike most books written by academics, Triumph avoids hasty generalizations and biased sampling procedures. The authors rightly fault earlier investment studies for arbitrary selection of starting and stopping points, the tendency to include the good and exclude the bad, and a parochial focusing on a small slice of the global picture. Their work epitomizes outstanding investment research.

Great works can be created in humble circumstances. Shakespeare was an actor and entrepreneur who reworked old plots so that his theatre company could make a buck. Cervantes wrote a parody of the fashionable knight errantry books to repay his debts. Dimson told us that he and his colleagues thought of Triumph as "a labor of love, just a small contribution that could lead to a paperback meant for light reading on planes". He added, "Our families would be less kind about our fixation." Staunton, who collected the data, prefers to gather statistics by himself from original sources at specialized libraries instead of delegating the work.

The main conclusion of Triumph is that a random selection of US stocks returned 1,500,000 percent in the twentieth century. Yes, big losses occurred at times, such as the back-to-back losses of -28 percent and -44 percent in 1930 and 1931, or the 10 years from 1970 to 1979 when stocks hardly budged while the dollar lost 28 percent of its purchasing power.

But overall, adjusted for inflation, the return on US stocks amounted to 6.3% a year, better than any other class of securities.

Dec

31

Reviews of 2025 and previews of 2026:

Mr Hirsch:

Stock Trader's Almanac

- Got many new ideas for research and helpful context
- also learned that I use the term Santa wrong!

Adam Grimes:

Trading the Changes: Structure, Regimes, and the Path to 2026

- always brilliant
- lots of actionable stuff and gems

Larry Williams:

Larry Williams’ 2026 Market Forecast: Cycles, Risks, and Opportunities

Dec

31

Every time I take a position the market manipulates my emotions. Every damn time.

Humbert Y. agrees:

Ha! As always, Larry nails it. This is the only relevant manipulation to be on guard for, and it is not an easy task…

W. Humbert comments:

My entrances are typically during what I perceive as a manipulation, I look for them.

Dec

30

Only the strong

December 30, 2025 | Leave a Comment

making you hold for the rounds at 6950 and 7000. only the strong.

Vic's X/twitter feed

Dec

30

Monitoring the U.S. economy through job growth has been unusually difficult in recent months. Under normal circumstances, the labor data would offer a clean read on economic momentum. Instead, a politically driven government shutdown temporarily removed millions of workers from payrolls, distorting every major employment indicator. The strategy failed to achieve its political aims, but it forced millions of Americans to forgo paychecks until the shutdown ended—leaving analysts with a statistical mess to untangle.

The central question now is straightforward but critical: How much of the current job growth reflects genuine economic expansion, and how much is simply the reinstatement of furloughed workers—or seasonal part-time hiring for the holidays?

The next Non-Farm Payroll Report arrives Friday, January 2, 2026, and for the first time in months we may get a clearer signal. Our estimate points to a substantial increase in jobs, driven entirely by the behavior of Payroll Tax Receipts, which have long been our most reliable real-time indicator of labor market strength.

After a period of negative growth, Payroll Tax Receipts have turned sharply upward. As shown in the accompanying chart, the leading indicator (red line) has lagged the actual receipts (blue line) during the shutdown distortions, but is now crossing above and beginning to lead the series higher. This is not a temporary blip. It marks the beginning of a multi-year positive trend—one we forecasted months ago and which is now unfolding exactly as expected.

Our estimate for the January 2nd NFP Report: +162,000 jobs

If this projection holds, it will confirm that the underlying economy has regained its footing and that the Payroll Tax Receipt signal is once again pointing the way forward.

Sorry — 4.3% GDP Growth Isn’t Real

Several major outlets (Bloomberg, CNBC, Axios) recently reported that the U.S. economy grew at an annualized 4.3% pace in Q3 2025. The number comes from a delayed BEA release (12/23) that extrapolated partial quarterly data into an annual rate. But that headline figure simply doesn’t match real-time economic activity.

Payroll Tax Receipts Tell the Truth
Our most reliable indicator of economic momentum has always been Payroll Tax Receipts. They reflect actual wages and actual jobs — not model-based projections.
Here’s what the tax data shows:
During Q3 2025, Payroll Tax Receipt growth was never positive.
Annualized growth for the quarter averaged 1.42%, and that’s looking back over a full year.
Current annualized growth through Christmas 2025 is under 0.5%.
Those numbers are nowhere near 4.3%.

Why the BEA Estimate Misleads
The BEA’s figure is:
Annualized — multiplying a partial quarter by four
Distorted by the government shutdown, which delayed data collection
Contradicted by real-time tax flows that never showed a surge
Even the BEA notes this is an initial estimate, replacing two missed releases. It is unusually fragile and backward-looking.
Interpretations Will Vary — But the Data Doesn’t

Some may speculate that an unexpectedly high GDP print could influence monetary policy by suggesting renewed inflation pressure. Whether or not one believes that, the conclusion is straightforward:

The 4.3% GDP claim cannot be supported by real economic data.
Payroll Tax Receipts — the cleanest, least-manipulable indicator we have — show growth well under 1%, not 4%.

Larry Williams adds:

One of the best predictors of jobs is the stock market, which is also forecasting more people back to work.

Dec

29

So as Silver trades yet another stratospheric (psychological) target, there are a few questions. On commercial side, both Demand and Supply are price-inelastic. Whatever industrial uses are, Silver is hardly substitutable, especially at the time when other metals are just as pricey. And on new Supply side, much Silver gets out of the ground as a by-product from mines not primarily operating as "a Silver mine". So, again, Silver production can't be easily jacked up during Silver's rise.

On non-commercial side, however, it's the opposite. Supply/Demand balance works as it should. $77 (or $100 lol) market would cause Buyers to be abandoning bids; while grandmas might start dusting silverware off and storming pawnshops. Any other considerations?

Peter Penha responds:

Exactly - if you look at the Silver Institute Supply / Demand models it shows we have been in several years of deficits (still in deficit of course this year and next) - Mine supply peaked a decade ago

If you add up all the non industrial uses of silver (Jewelry, Photography+film (Chris Nolan & IMAX), and all silverware) they do not make up the deficit.

So in the Silver Institute model and I am talking 2023 $28 silver price we have some 20% of total ounces that need to be divested every year to maintain supply/demand.

60% of uses are industrial - solar is the future everywhere now….for those missing the US battery trade —> the Biden era tax credits for solar are now Trump credits for solar+batteries & the AI data centers are now going to be Bring Your Own Capacity and storage & connect to the grid.

Read the full post with additional comments.

Dec

28

The book Letters From A Self-Made Merchant To His Son was a bestseller in 1901 and is still one that every kid and businessman should read. it's advice from a meatpacker for his son and goes thru Harvard and is based on the founders of Armour and co and Swift.

it's filled with advice on a proper way to choose a girl and how to be successful in business. Highly recommended.

Here is a good summary of the letters from the best book on business and life wisdom that there is. The timeless advice is more relevant for today than any new work could be. Just buy it. Read it. Implement it.

Vic's X/twitter feed

Dec

26

With direct application to speculation (featuring VC's):

You've (Likely) Been Playing The Game of Life Wrong

The world is not Normal.

Dec

24

This is one of my favorite stories. I hope you enjoy it, and I wish you a Merry Christmas. — Victor Niederhoffer

High on the mountainside by the little line cabin in the crisp clean dusk of evening Stubby Pringle swings into saddle. He has shape of bear in the dimness, bundled thick against cold. Double stocks crowd scarred boots. Leather chaps with hair out cover patched corduroy pants. Fleece-lined jacket with wear of winters on it bulges body and heavy gloves blunt fingers. Two gay red bandannas folded together fatten throat under chin. Battered hat is pulled down to sit on ears and in side pocket of jacket are rabbit-skin earmuffs he can put to use if he needs them.

Stubby Pringle swings up into saddle. He looks out and down over worlds of snow and ice and tree and rock. He spreads arms wide and they embrace whole ranges of hills. He stretches tall and hat brushes stars in sky. He is Stubby Pringle, cowhand of the Triple X, and this is his night to howl. He is Stubby Pringle, son of the wild jackass, and he is heading for the Christmas dance at the schoolhouse in the valley.

[For the entire text of the story, please follow this link].

Dec

23

Force of destiny

December 23, 2025 | Leave a Comment

force of destiny sp at 7000 now at 6900.

Vic's X/twitter feed

Dec

23

Fascinating to watch how former low status jobs, like cybersecurity, have become high status now. Same is true the other way around as well (eg (male) technician at the London tube system who makes a quarter of his wife who is in real estate - although that is changing now). Wondering what low type jobs / or ppl are on the fringes today will be in high demand in coming years.

Carder Dimitroff responds:

Try these:

Any of the crafts. Specifically, licensed electricians, plumbers, and HVAC techs. Many make more than engineers.

Public response teams. Specifically, firefighters, EMTs, and law enforcement. Many make more than lawyers, particularly when pensions are considered.

Career military. Specifically, for those with 20 years of service. Lifetime benefits are incredible (free college, unlimited grad schools, pensions w/colas, lifetime medical insurance, VA benefits, hiring preferences).

Pamela Van Giessen suggests:

Car mechanics

Henry Gifford writes:

My friend who fixed boilers said to his sophisticated, suit-and-tie, well educated in-laws “I’m not the smartest guy around. I’ve only read two or three books in my life. I don’t think I’m smart enough to come up with a sophisticated investment plan (nods all around the room at this point). So I just buy one piece of New York City real estate each year and hope for the best”. No more nodding at that point.

Guess what blue collar people who don’t have vices do with their money? They buy property. Who is better suited to own real estate? People who fix things and have friends who fix things, or lawyers?

And what nobody mentions is that some people are much better at those sorts of work than others. Simply finding someone to show up and try to do those things is hard. Someone who is good at one of those trades is in even higher demand.

Those fantastic benefits for former military people are not limited to the military – all federal employees get all those benefits after twenty years of work. If someone joins the military at 18, and gets out at 38, or gets out sooner and then works in the post office or etc. until they “get their twenty”, they get full salary with increases for life. Income that will survive any lawsuit, even the IRS can’t take it all. They maybe collect a total of three years of salary for every year worked.

Nils Poertner responds:

Certainly good to encourage young men (or women) to follow a path that interests them - and not just follow a path that is currently "high status". This "Yousef" guy who was my IT guy at Bankers Trust decades ago (low status in my eyes back then) became a cyberpunk in 2008…you get the idea. That said, it is a power game outside. young men need wives etc.

Henry Gifford adds:

I judge the level of a single woman’s interest in me by counting the seconds until she says “what do you do?”.

No woman has ever asked me if I like what I do, or am good at what I do – not important.

Many men have a choice between coming home miserable to a wife, or coming home happy to an empty house. Age old dilemma, no known fix, as all our DNA has evolved to enhance survival, which for a woman over the millennia has meant marrying the chief’s son, or someone else with high status.

Larry Williams recalls:

When I was dating all women ever asked me is your place or mine. Must have been doing something wrong.

Michael Brush is curious:

Do you have a cycle chart for that?

Larry Williams clarifies:

Yes but there are not enough examples to draw a conclusion.

Dec

22

It will be the first time mainstream institutions, such as ETFs, banks etc. are so heavily involved with this asset class if it is repeating the historical pattern.

Cycle 1 (2010 - 2013)
• Peak: December 2013
• Drawdown: 93% from ATH

Cycle 2 (2014 to 2017)
• Peak: December 2017
• Drawdown: ~86-87% from ATH

Cycle 3 (2018 to 2021)
• Peak: November 2021
• Drawdown: ~75-77% from ATH

Cycle 4 (2025 to ???)
• Peak: October
• Drawdown: 30% from ATH for now

If 70-80% drawdown repeats, Bitcoin will be below 40000 and Crypto Treasury geniuses will be meeting with Trump for a bailout! But Who will bailout Trump?

Dec

22

Chuck Proctor (video interview)

In this episode of In The Harbor, we sit down with Chuck Proctor, a seasoned spread trader specializing in 30-year Treasury bond futures. Chuck takes us through his remarkable rise on the trading floor—from starting as a runner, to becoming a clerk, and ultimately earning his place as a local trader.

Together, we revisit the golden era of open-outcry pit trading: the chaos, the camaraderie, the competition, and the moments that shaped a generation of traders. Chuck shares firsthand stories of what it was like to survive—and thrive—in an environment built on instinct, speed, and human connection.

We then shift to the present day to examine the “death of the pits” and the takeover of markets by computers and algorithms. Chuck offers candid insights on how the culture of trading has evolved, what was lost, and where opportunity still exists for those willing to adapt.

Dec

21

Idea for younger Specs: In School, some of us studied old languages, Latin, ancient Greek, one had to sit 1 hour to figure out what individual words could mean. And then put it all together. One could have the same approach for reading modern newspaper articles now. like this WSJ article here (I know that ppl can read "English" - I meant in a more reflective way. "Get the joke")

Five Reasons Investors Are Feeling Good About Stocks Again

and then check /study with "expected" vs "actual" in 1 week, 1 month, 1 quarter etc,
on a rolling basis to hone intuition /train memory.

Stefan Jovanovich recalls:

Arthur Sullivan - "no, I am not a descendant of the composer, whom none of you dunces will have heard of. He was English; I am Irish." - remains my favorite of all teachers. He lasted 1 year at Hackley - then a borstal boarding school for children who had to be warehoused, now a respectable Westchester County day school. He taught 9th grade Latin and turned it into a lesson in military tactics and strategy. The little Latin and less Greek are long gone, but I can still see his face and those of my classmates the day he explained to us how Caesar used a company of archers to conduct reconnaissance by fire.

Dec

20

Low range of S&P

December 20, 2025 | Leave a Comment

amazingly low range of sp last 2 months with half of all prices in 6800 handle and sd of 9.

Vic's X/twitter feed

Dec

20

The Absurdity of Detecting Gravitational Waves

The LIGO site.

Dec

19

Often when I listen to specs I hear "off-topic" book recommendations. Examples:

"The most important book to do with trading is Secrets of Professional Turf Betting by Robert Bacon" — The Chair. A book about parimutuel horse betting.

"The most important book to do with the stock market is Horse Trading by Ben Green" — A game theorist & friend of The Chair. A book about selling horses

"I can find new trading strategies on almost every new page (Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Khaneman)" — The Chair's Brother (Mr. Roy Niederhoffer). A psychology book

"Our entire investment philosophy is based off this book (Snow Crash by Neal Stephenson) — Fred Wilson of Union Square Ventures, a Tier 1 VC firm. Its a sci-fi book.

"One of the most important things you can learn todo with investing is creative writing" — Jeffrey Hirsch. Not a book but still an off-topic research recommendation.

I have never regretted reading an "off-topic" book. Any more of such recommendations?

Nils Poertner responds:

Coaching Plain & Simple, by P. Szabo, D. Meier (book about learning - how to coach oneself in a way)

Asindu - what books to get rid off, to burn, what is an obstacle in your life is also relevant. Early 2008, I visited a French friend on Lehman trading floor in London. V nice guy, senior analyst for their credit models, high IQ 130 plus, bit gullible though. He was surrounded by over 20 books of advanced math on either side of his desk. I had the urge to get a huge sledgehammer and whack down the books…you know.

Larry Williams suggests:

Zurich axioms. A must read.

Peter Ringel agrees with Larry:

I have them on my wall. Besides some of the lists by Vic, Larry, Adam Grimes and some other. Valuable.

And did you find the Daily Speculations booklist?

Asindu Drileba writes:

Yes. I forgot about Zurich Axioms. Thanks. This Daily Speculations list is good, I actually wasn't aware of it.

Dec

18

There is this known phenomenon that coffee chains (Starbucks, Costa Coffee) in a city are often next to each other. Same for gas (petrol) Stations. Makes no sense for the customer but applying game theory it certainly does.

Perhaps the same could be said for analysts forecasts by major broker dealers?

Early 2010 (pre Eurocrisis) I recall speaking to a Deutsche Banker covering Italian regional banks. She said she would have loved to write a more bearish story but was afraid of internal repercussions (as they were trying to win other business from those Italian banks).

Dec

17

His book Tiger Cub: The Story of John Freeborn DFC* is the best writing about the RAF in WW 2.

The facts are from Grok; the comments are mine.

John Connell Freeborn, DFC & Bar (1 December 1919 – 28 August 2010), was a distinguished British fighter pilot and flying ace in the Royal Air Force (RAF) during the Second World War. He was kicked out of Leeds Grammar School at 16 for fighting and found his calling when he joined the RAF 3 years later under a short service commission. After 4 hours and 20 minutes of flight time, he was allowed to solo. In 3 months he went from trainee to pilot officer.

During the Battle of Britain (July–October 1940) Freeborn flew more operational hours than any other RAF pilot—over 300 sorties. He is credit with 5 confirmed kills (Messerschmitt Bf 109s) and 3 shared kills.

Freeborn served as RAF liaison and test pilot in the United States (January–December 1942), commanded No. 118 Squadron (June 1943–January 1944), was wing commander of 286 Wing in Italy (1944–1945). He quit the RAF in 1946; it was, he said, "run by nincompoops".

Dec

16

Oil at $55

December 16, 2025 | Leave a Comment

oil at $55 a barrel. all inflation numbers very bull for S&P and USD. definitely deserving of a rate reduction. except for chance gardner posturing.

Vic's X/twitter feed

Dec

16

Only the Paranoid Survive

written by another smart Hungarian (who came to the US). Andy Grove (late Intel CEO), real name is Gróf, András István. Jewish Hungarian middle class. András Gróf was born to a middle-class Jewish family in Budapest in 1936.

typically it does not pay to be surrounded by paranoid ppl in business or speculating (one reason I don't like preppers in my vicinity as they irritate me too much) -OTOH, perhaps there is some value to adding here and there a friend who is a bit paranoid at times.

Dec

15

[Re the DailySpec Thanksgiving story.]

McDonald's Admits It's Too Expensive for Customers

In no way does this contradict the point of the story — customers looking for a low-price meal can (and have) go to other fast-food chains, such as Taco Bell. Free enterprise and competition are necessary for a happy society.

Dec

15

No comment needed.

The Harvard Club of New York Cancels Dershowitz Book Event

The Harvard Club of New York is being accused of censorship after abruptly cancelling a book event featuring famed Harvard professor Alan Dershowitz. In a statement, Dershowitz says that invitations were sent out and the event was approaching when he was suddenly told that the Harvard Club would have none of it. He blamed his representation of President Donald Trump for the cancellation. For a club that bills itself as offering “unique experiences,” it appears that hearing from opposing or different views is not one of them. Dershowitz has been associated with Harvard for over 60 years and remains one of its best known law faculty members.

Nils Poertner comments:

Large Universities in the US, Canada and parts of Europe are doomed beyond repair. No error correction process happening- built through collapse.

Henry Gifford writes:

Harvard was just used as an example when Trump tried to cancel “their” research funding (polite word for money). I didn’t pay attention to the details of the outcome - the point got made that universities better step into line.

Sure, Trump’s objection had something to do with DEI and being too liberal, but as all colleges are dependent on not paying taxes, and on government loans for most tuition, and government research money, they can hardly be anything but socialist in thinking, and can be expected I think to stay that way.

If they paid taxes and people had to pay to go there and research had to be paid for by someone spending their own money things would, I think, be greatly improved, but that is not the world we live in.
The government is basically paying the universities to breed socialism. In New York City we even have colleges that teach people to be bureaucrats.

Dec

14

Wonderful example of ever changing cycles in the NBA vis a vis the post up play which went dramatically out of favor when analytics reshaped the game into a three point shooting contest but now has come back into favor due to the spacing afforded by all those three point shooters.

How post-ups became the NBA's most efficient play

Stefan Jovanovich comments:

The Jokic effect

Steve Ellison is wistful:

Might one dare to hope that actually putting the ball in play for fielders might once again gain favor in baseball?

Dec

13

The rat had no morals, no scruples, no consideration and left half-inch scat throughout my trailer for weeks. Peanut butter in a Havahart trap failed so I upscaled to the Victor rat trap, world leader since 1898 with the snap of an alligator. I heard it about midnight. Peeking over the attic drop ceiling was a rat the size of a chihuahua and it must have thought my Kilroy head was the largest mammal it had ever seen. It’s nose was locked in the trap, legs flailing with a 9” tail. I raised a 1-pound ball-peen hammer to dispatch it, the ladder slipped, and I fell into the darkness. Nobody here but me lying conscious and paralyzed on the floor with the rat thrashing and bleeding six-feet above. The stealthy, secret fellow had built a better rat trap.

The crash onto three 70-pound Marine batteries left me in underwear on the dirty, 40-degree floor for 1.5 days. No water, no food, unable to crawl. Finally, I inched like an inchworm for 15’ to a cellphone and called my desert neighbor a mile away.

The Brawley, CA Pioneer Hospital ER accepted me gleefully on a slow night and the attention was professional. A CT scan and Xray exposed four broken ribs (8-11), Lumbar-1 compression fracture, a 30% hemothorax (blood in the thoracic cavity), slight pneumothorax (air in the thoracic cavity), and pleural hemorrhage (gurgling blood in the lungs). I could have died that gray night from labored breathing.

‘The injuries,’ urged the doctor, are just shy of surgery but transport to a Level 1 trauma center is mandatory to monitor the hemothorax.’ He offered me morphine, fentanyl, and I finally accepted an opiate Norco (Hydrocodone) for the ambulance ride. Suddenly I was streaking on the dark desert highway 111 for two hours to Palm Springs Trauma Center.

The ER was professional and fast. A fascinating fracture case brought the six-man team to my blood-drained face under a chocolate brown cowboy hat like The Good, Bad, and Ugly, as the lead physician whistled the theme song and the lung specialist shook his head. ‘You’ll get better in a private room on the 4th floor.’

Instead, they wheeled the bed down the block long emergency hall to an elevator and I watched the aide press Floor 3. The door opened to a raised dungeon of mops, cobwebs, and people who couldn’t speak English. Tortured screams echoed along myriad halls. They stuck me in a room with a sheet separating my ears from a man moaning in agony for 30-minutes until I called as loud as my lungs could allow, ‘Help!’ A nurse creeped into the room and instructed me to take a blood thinner. ‘That’s contraindicated with hemothorax; are you trying to kill me?’ ‘Then take this anxiety pill first.’ ‘Get me the head nurse!’ She came. ‘Move me to Floor 4 or I’ll crawl to the Palm Springs Newspaper office.’

That’s how I commandeered a 3:00am penthouse in the finest, largest hospital in southern California. It was a private room with two full-time, around-the-clock nurses who fed me 5-star meals and told war stories until I was glutted with tenderness and said I wanted to go home. The requirements were to inhale 1500ml of air on an incentive spirometer (I passed with 3000ml akin to a healthy, 20-year old male); lower my pulse from 90 to 85 beats in a heartbeat, roll out of bed, and walk 50 yards. ‘We’ll call you an Uber,’ praised a nurse.

I was released to my Slab City car mechanic and walked up a wash to my camp. It’s been a month now of daily walking and light yard work. I took one Norco every four nights to fall asleep and shunted my blood to the healing areas, and when it hit my brain added columns of numbers to link the opiate to math instead of getting high.

Life is good again. It’s 10% what happens and 90% how you react to it.

Dec

12

"Free trade" never loses an argument; it is like being in favor of virtue. Even the worst sinner knows that vice is not to be publicly defended. The difficult for those of us in the bleachers is that we have never been able to avoid asking the follow-on question: if you don't like tariffs as taxes, what do you want to have instead? Adam Smith's answers were (1) domestic excises - the sugar is allowed to arrive untaxed and then have a tax levied when it is sold and (2) occupancy taxes - to be measured by how many windows a building had. What is never mentioned, of course, is that Smith was completely in support of the navigation acts; Britain would have "free trade" but only on cargoes carried on British ships that traveled directly to British ports. His specific comment on that question was: “Defense is of much more importance than opulence.”

William Huggins writes:

i'm all ears to hear what national security threat the us is responding to with their 50% tariff on aluminum processed where there is an abundance of clean energy to do so and (until recently) all but perfectly aligned nat sec interests with the processor?

Stefan Jovanovich responds:

The answer offered by the authors and voters who made the Constitution the national law was "protection". I offer this only as an historical explanation, not advocacy, since those of us who live on popcorn and waiting from spring (what Rogers Hornsby said he did after the baseball season ended) have abandoned all attempts to understand what is called "policy", whether monetary or otherwise.

Art Cooper asks:

May I have your thoughts on Henry George's advocacy for the replacement of all other taxes by a land value tax?

Henry Gifford comments:

I think Henry George’s idea has a lot of merit, and not just because I heard that my father once taught at The Henry George School of Economics.

More than one calculation has shown that the cost of complying with tax laws in the US is about equal to the amount of taxes paid. If a land value tax eliminated all other taxes, almost all that cost would be saved. But, this would disadvantage the government because vague and complicated laws can be used by the strong against the weak, something not many in government want to see the end of.

Then there is the issue of jobs. The existing tax systems create a huge number of jobs, most of which would go away with a greatly simplified tax. Sure, those people could find more useful endeavors, increasing wealth for all, but if politicians started talking like that a lot of other things would be seen as folly.

Disagreements about the value of land could be handled like the ancient Greeks did – anyone claiming a lower value for their property can be challenged to sell it at that lower price.

A similar situation exists with the part of building design laws that regulate the energy efficiency of new buildings that get built. Now the laws run to hundreds of pages, which makes them very difficult to enforce. The vagueness gives the government people more power, as they interpret the laws as they see fit, or as they are paid under the table to do. For a time I was advocating a simple energy code: limit the size of the heating and cooling systems installed per the size of the building (you-tube: “The Perfect Energy Code”). Governments around the US were loathe to adopt a simplified energy code, because then jobs would be “lost” and the power to make arbitrary decisions would be reduced and the laws would actually be enforceable. A simplified tax collecting system will probably always be unpopular for similar reasons, despite what I think is a lot to recommend it.

Stefan Jovanovich responds:

Smith agreed with Henry George. He thought a land tax had all the attributes of a good tax, unlike income and employment taxes, which were the worst possible ones. Even tariffs had some virtues compared to those that required citizens to tell the state everything.

Dec

11

I rarely use a squawk box. But on a day like FOMC I do. I don't trade news, mkt is usually earlier. I use it more like an alarm clock. So Y/D I tuned in and so did all the other zillion retailies.

They have a tiered model, there the premium is real-time (+ latency…hmmm) and the rest is delayed. A few major news like FOMC are real-time also on the free tier.

So seconds before the FOMC announcement, at the moment of highest attention by potential future paying customers, they piped in an add:

In the voice of Trump (surely AI generated):
"You are not on the premium feed. You are missing out. Lets make the news great again“

Brilliant

(not an endorsement of news trading )

Dec

11

why it's better to have another entity produce things:

Demystifying Tariffs

A free market operates on Ricardo’s principle of comparative advantage, where trade exists because no country is self-sufficient. Countries either lack resources (e.g., India importing crude from the Middle East), infrastructure (e.g., the US importing pharmaceuticals from India), or expertise (e.g., the US and China importing electronic chips from Taiwan). Countries should specialize in producing goods and services with lower opportunity costs and export them, while freely importing others. This leads to better quality and lower costs for consumers.

4 Quotes on Free Trade from Classical Economists

Nothing is more usual, among states which have made some advances in commerce, than to look on the progress of their neighbours with a suspicious eye, to consider all trading states as their rivals, and to suppose that it is impossible for any of them to flourish, but at their expence. In opposition to this narrow and malignant opinion, I will venture to assert, that the encrease of riches and commerce in any one nation, instead of hurting, commonly promotes the riches and commerce of all its neighbours; and that a state can scarcely carry its trade and industry very far, where all the surrounding states are buried in ignorance, sloth, and barbarism.

Vic's X/twitter feed

Dec

10

the fifties are the new rounds always to be breached from below.

is the fed chair fed with answers that will bull and bear and how can he hurt trump?

sherlock holmes, alan pinkerton and wikipedia hear completely opposite varsions of the Molly Maguires. the first two are reliably, the third is woke trash.

Vic's X/twitter feed

Dec

10

Ye Outside Fools!

December 10, 2025 | Leave a Comment

Is not our business quite as good as that of those who lend their names to float the foreign loans of countries which are in a state of semi-bankruptcy, and which will fail to pay as soon as they can get no further loans? It certainly does much less harm. They catch the real investor, we but clear the weaker speculators out.

Ye Outside Fools! Glimpses Inside the Stock Exchange, by Erasmus Pinto, broker, 1876.

Vic's X/twitter feed

Dec

9

The Structural Collapse: How Google’s Integrated Stack Is Dismantling the OpenAI Thesis
Shanaka Anslem Perera
Nov 22, 2025

A leaked internal memo reveals the tectonic shift reshaping artificial intelligence, where platform economics are defeating venture-backed innovation at the exact moment markets assumed the opposite.

Carder Dimitroff writes:

My Australian daughter is a Google employee. She recently completed Google's 3-month AI training program in the US. From what I understand, Google's AI capabilities are big. When demonstrated to Google's large-cap clients, they were surprised.

Based on her comments, I've concluded that AI technologies will displace accountants, engineers, lawyers, financial analysts, medical staff, educators, sales, and more.

Obviously, leaders in those disciplines will continue to do well. While most normal positions can be eliminated, there must be a human somewhere in the mix. There's an ongoing need to manage the architecture of the questions and review AI responses. Anyone who wants to remain in the game may wish to develop expertise in leadership, program management, systems management, and communication.

Then again, there will be an ongoing need for the crafts. They will reap while others weep.

Musk is right. Work will become optional. But he was not the first.

Dec

7

Andrew Carnegie

December 7, 2025 | Leave a Comment

Andrew Carnegie learned telegraphy by heart.

Andrew Carnegie

In 1849, Carnegie became a telegraph messenger boy in the Pittsburgh Office of the Ohio Telegraph Company, at $2.50 per week ($94 by 2024 inflation) following the recommendation of his uncle. He was a hard worker and would memorize all of the locations of Pittsburgh's businesses and the faces of important men. He made many connections this way. He also paid close attention to his work and quickly learned to distinguish the different sounds the incoming telegraph signals produced. He developed the ability to translate signals by ear, without using the paper slip. Within a year he was promoted to an operator.

Vic's X/twitter feed

Dec

6

Sancho Panza's Porverbs and others that occur in Don Quixote

half of the proverbs contain the word "ass" in it - like this one which I found timely:

When the broom sprouts, the ass is born to eat it.

Dec

4

previous 20-day high at 6875 on 11-12. must be broken soon.

Vic's X/twitter feed

Dec

4

The Battle of Trafalgar and the Ensign of the San Ildefonso: A Testament to Naval Supremacy

The Battle of Trafalgar, fought on October 21, 1805, marked a defining moment in history, securing Britain’s unchallenged supremacy as a naval power. Under the brilliant leadership of Admiral Horatio Nelson, the British Royal Navy triumphed over a larger Franco-Spanish fleet, despite being outnumbered in both manpower and firepower. This clash not only demonstrated tactical brilliance but also symbolized the resilience and innovation of the British naval force.

One of the most remarkable artifacts from this legendary battle is the massive ensign flown by the Spanish warship San Ildefonso. This flag, an enduring symbol of Trafalgar's legacy, provides an extraordinary glimpse into the scale and intensity of 19th-century naval warfare.

Measuring an astonishing 33 feet wide and 47.5 feet long, the San Ildefonso’s flag is a colossal piece of history. Made of wool, it served as the ship’s battle ensign—a flag so large that it could be seen through the dense smoke of cannon fire, ensuring that allies and enemies alike could identify the ship’s status.

Dec

2

Cochrane: Britannia's Sea Wolf, by Donald Thomas, completely exonerates Cochrane from the insider trading scandal. Cochrane made less than 1/4 of a %, and much of the conviction against him depended upon the identification of a red versus green coat.

Monte Walsh has everything a western should have and is easily more exciting and deep than anything of Lamour. Why is it so neglected?

Jack Schaefer was a journalist and writer known for his authentic and memorable characters set in the American West. Schaefer received the Western Literature Association's Distinguished Achievement Award in 1975 and the Saddleman Award in 1986 from the Western Writers of America. His popular Western novels include Shane (1949) and Monte Walsh (1963).

Vic's X/twitter feed

Nov

30

Once upon a time I measured how much electricity it takes to ride on an elevator – I measured about 50 elevators – and seem to be the only person who ever measured that and got the results published. Before, there were numerous scholarly papers published on elevator energy use, all guesses or estimates or computer models (same thing), very “scholarly” because they had footnotes referencing other published guesses and because you paid a lot of money for someone to do that “research”. Several multinational elevator companies were selling energy efficient elevators, but none of the companies knew how much energy a ride took – they had “data” on how much their elevator used in one year vs. an ordinary elevator – an unspecified number of rides, unspecified number of stops (floors), unspecified weight in the cab, etc. All just made up “data”. Surprise, none of the manufacturers wanted me to measure their elevator.

Read the full post with additional comments.

Nov

29

American Colossus: The Triumph of Capitalism, 1865-1900 summarizes the work of Rockefeller, Carnegie and Morgan in building America and pictures a battle between Adam Smith and Thomas Jefferson.

Also:

Why We Run: A Natural History, by Bernd Heinrich

In Why We Run, Heinrich considers the flight endurance of birds, the antelope's running prowess and limitations, and the ultra-endurance of camels to understand how human physiology can or cannot replicate these adaptations. With his characteristic blend of scientific inquiry and philosophical musings, Heinrich offers an original and provocative work combining the rigors of science with the passion of running.

26 days and 0.50 away from last 20-day high very bull.

Vic's X/twitter feed

Nov

28

Anyone have any favorite good luck charms/rituals to help with trading results?

Peter Ringel writes:

some of the old floor traders, we had on this list, reported how superstitious some of the traders were. Cloths, bathroom time…

Asindu Drileba comments:

Lucky charms may sound delusional but they are actually more common than we think. They are more like placebos. I take pill X, my headache goes away. (But pill X is made from wheat flour and a bitter "filler" and has exactly zero pharmaceutical contents, yet it works).

Have you ever pushed the button that opens the door of an elevator? Well, those buttons are completely fake! Elevator doors are pre-programmed to open and close at hard coded intervals. Pushing the button does nothing. They simply exist to give people a sense of control.

Nils Poertner writes:

To have a strong belief one can learn (from mkts or others) is a good start.
ie allowing for mistakes to happen, not fretting them. (many cultures are guilt-ridden, like the German culture on so many fronts. All it takes is sometimes to muster up enough courage and learn from mistakes and don't judge).

Zubin Al Genubi offers:

I'm reading Kidding Ourselves, Hidden Power of Self Deception, by Hallinan, in which he describes real physical and psychological effects of psychosomatic causes such as death, hallucinations. You see what you want to see. You are and become what you believe yourself to be. It affects health, performance, money. He also describes how a feeling of lack of control can be debilitating and even deadly. Some feel a lack of control in that they don't control the market, but one can easily (physically at least) click the keys to buy and sell any time.

From scientific studies: Our results suggest that the activation of a superstition can indeed yield performance-improving effects.

Nov

26

Thanksgiving is about sharing prosperity, and it's a good time to think about where prosperity comes from. The Pilgrims figured it out in 1623. We'll retell that story as we celebrate the way it lives on in countless U.S. families and companies today. And in particular at one company, McDonald's (MCD, news, msgs), that in its humdrum way beautifully demonstrates the source of prosperity and the American way of life.

The Pilgrims started with so little. They had to hide in England because the authorities considered them dangerous. They fled to Holland but found themselves compelled to take menial jobs. On the way to America, many of the company died. They lost their way to Virginia and landed in Massachusetts just as winter set in. The Virginia Co., their backers in London, went bankrupt and couldn't send relief supplies.

To cope with want, the Pilgrims made the same mistake that so many countries do even today: They divided all their land, efforts, supplies and produce in common, to each according to his need.

As always in such systems, need surpassed supply.

The Pilgrims spent their first three years in America suffering from hunger, illness, cold and infighting. People stole from the common stores "despite being well whipped," according to William Bradford's "Of Plymouth Plantation."

Bradford, governor of Plymouth Colony, records what happened next: "They began to think how they might raise as much corn as they could, that they might not continue to languish in misery. After much debate, the Governor decided that each settler should plant corn for themselves."

Under the Land Division of 1623, each family received one acre per family member to farm. That year, three times as many acres were planted as the year before. Prosperity was not long in coming.

The Pilgrims turned from their Old World system of common ownership to incentives. They didn't go that way out of ideological conviction, but because they didn't have the luxury of waiting for support to come to them.

How many families in America tell the same tale? "When we came here, we worked hard and our lives were better."

But that wasn't the end of the story. Before the switch to incentives, the hungry settlers were at each other's throats. Hard workers resented receiving the same portions of food as those who were not able to do even a quarter of the work they did. Young men resented having to work without compensation to feed other men's wives and children. Mature men resented receiving the same allotments as did the younger and meaner sort. Women resented being forced to do laundry and other chores for men other than their husbands. Many people felt too sick to work.

But when they were allowed to farm their own plots, the most amazing thing happened. Everybody — the sick, the women and even the children — went out willingly into the fields to work. People started to respect and like one another again. It wasn't that they were bad people, Bradford explained; it's just human nature. Adam Smith came to the same conclusion later, and Friedrich Hayek updated Smith's ideas for the 20th century. But we don't need to go back to New England for understanding. Similar outcomes can be seen at McDonald's every day.

For centuries, people on the lower rungs of the social ladder weren't able to eat meat. They ate grains and beans. But people like beef. And chicken.

When McDonald's started popping up in every neighborhood, all of a sudden there was an affordable place for families to eat. Previously, one of the main differences between the upper and lower classes was that the rich could eat out. Even if the poor could afford the tab, they couldn't hire baby sitters, and they couldn't bring their kids to the elegant establishments designed for the rich because they would have disturbed the other diners.

Most kids don't like fancy restaurants anyway. They want fries, not polenta with wild mushrooms. They want fried codfish, not turbot. They want burgers, not lamb chops.

How many people has McDonald's made happy? How many families has it brought together? How many Happy Meals have been eaten there? How many kids have enjoyed the playgrounds? How many tired workers have been able to catch a quick meal? How many women are able to pursue careers and other productive activities and dreams because McDonald's has freed them from the task of having to cook every night?

The Pilgrims might have served 200 or 300 American Indians at their Thanksgiving feast. McDonald's serves 26 million customers a day at 13,700 U.S. restaurants.

For the traveler, McDonald's is a home away from home, offering so much for so little. The restrooms are clean. And McDonald's serves hot strong organic coffee in smooth cups of some wonderful material that keeps liquids hot without burning the hand, shaped to fit into the cup holders that just happen to be in your car, with carefully designed tops that permit just the right amount to be sipped.

No regulator, no fascist dictator, no socialist planner decreed sip tops or cup holders. But how many late-night drivers have died for the lack of a good cup of coffee? What could be more munificent than saving lives?

And the story doesn't end there. Consider the employees of McDonald's. How many people have worked there and learned the most important lesson in America: The customer is always right?

The anti-this-and-that people who demonstrate against profit incentives and free markets like to single out McDonald's as a symbol of modern capitalism. (They don't mean that in a nice way.) As the McLibel Support Campaign puts it: "(McDonald's) has pioneered many business practices that have been taken up by others, and have come to represent a symbol of the way that society is going –'McDonaldization.'" But when have you ever seen an unhappy customer at McDonald's? There couldn't be too many of them, because about 10% of America eats there each day. Given the choice of cooking at home or going to other restaurants — and competition ensures that there are other restaurants — people go to McDonald's because they trust they'll find good food, quick service and value for money. What could be more munificent, more representative of sharing the fruits of hard work than McDonald's?

McDonald's and the Pilgrims are the essence of America. The people work hard, motivated by the chance for profits. They provide a welcome to others, whether to Indians joining in harvest celebrations, or to customers looking to satisfy their hunger. Their work results in high quality, low costs and family togetherness.

Those humdrum, everyday attributes are what makes America great. That's what we should be celebrating. It's the source of all our munificence, from the first Thanksgiving to today.

Nov

26

Speculator & Son

November 26, 2025 | 3 Comments

Vic's X/twitter feed

Nov

25

Zapped: From Infrared to X-rays, the Curious History of Invisible Light

From beloved popular science writer Bob Berman, ZAPPED tells the story of all the light we cannot see, tracing infrared, microwaves, ultraviolet, X-rays, gamma rays, radio waves and other forms of radiation from their historic, world-altering discoveries in the 19th century to their central role in our modern way of life, setting the record straight on health costs (and benefits) and exploring the consequences of our newest technologies.

Nils Poertner suggests:

The HoHo Dojo, by Billy Strean.

Laughter and humor are therapeutic allies in healing.

Nov

24

An earlier and more illuminating version of I, Pencil from The Marvels of Modern Industry by William Norman Mitchell 1940:

Have you ever thought of all the work and plans and endless pains in far distant places which were necessary to supply so simple a thing as your breakfast? If you have, you doubtless found that even to enumerate these services constituted a lesson in world geography. There were, perhaps, grapefruit from Texas, sugar from Cuba, syrup from Vermont, toast made from flour milled in Buffalo, possibly from wheat from the valley of the Red River of the North. Butter and cream came from Wisconsin farms, bacon from Iowa, and coffee from distant Brazil. If you looked farther you may have found that this simple meal was served with plates of Bavarian make, on a cloth which was the product of Belgian skill, covering a table fashioned in Carolina hills from Honduras wood, with varnished finish made from gum brought from Algiers. Fork and spoon came from New England where they were fashioned from silver from Nevada's mines, while the knife blade possibly was made of Sheffield steel from iron ore mined in Sweden or war-torn Spain, and by its silvery and stainless sheen indicated that it had drawn upon the nickel from Canadian mines and the chromites of Rhodesian Veldts. And so on, in ever widening spread, until the whole world is drawn into a tangled web and bound on the common mission of serving you your breakfast!

Vic's X/twitter feed

Nov

23

Whether it is the "Mambani win", Brexit, Covid, Ukraine war, whatever - had someone told me 6 months before that this could happen - the answer would have been "no-way…" whereas in 20-20 hindsight - it is always like "oh yes, there were obvious signs."

Zubin Al Genubi responds:

History is made on the edges by outliers which shifts the averages way over in its direction.

Nov

22

Chart: Full-time vs, Part-time Employment Growth Rates

Nov

22

Thanksgiving soon

November 22, 2025 | Leave a Comment

a little thankagiving treat coming shortly. dog stole a bone and hiding it over weekend.

OIL AT $58. don't have necessary data for inflation numbers. an appropriate vestige of remainng use for input-output but on prices not output.

Vic's X/twitter feed

Nov

21

Yesterday's range in VIX was one of the widest & wildest one I have seen in a very long time that happened without any major news. Wednesday close to Thursday low 18% decline followed by 46% rally to the day's high. Is there anyone who can check the occurrences in the past and how SPX traded in the following days of such a massive range explosion?

Asindu Drileba responds:

The Chairman's book, Practical Speculation, has a detailed analysis of the multivariate relationship between the VIX and the SPY. Unfortunately I forgot the page, and I am currently not close to my copy. [see pages 107-110] But it has something to do with how the fluctuations around the average of the VIX affects the SPY.

Paolo Pezzutti does some counting:

#VIX +11.71% at 26.43
Highest close since 24 April
Since 2020 VIX>26 has occurred 290 times.
After 4 days the Emini S&P Futures:
+27.01 pts Mean, 63.4% Wins, 1.63 Profit Factor

Larry Williams cuts to the chase:

Vix goes up when stocks go down they are inverse of each other—no magic there are all.

Nov

21

Sheep needs to be regularly sheared to take off some extra wool- it is actually good for them- healthy!

Henry Gifford adds:

Back in the day sheep didn’t have people handy to shear them. A farmer told me that over the past few hundred years sheep have been bred to grow more wool, thus they need people now, but before that change the sheep didn’t grow as much wool.

Steve Ellison writes:

The S&P 500 reaching its lower 50-day Bollinger band on Thursday might indeed indicate some modicum of panic, as might VIX being well above its upper 50-day Bollinger band.

I have thought sentiment was quite restrained this year given that the S&P 500 was at a record high as recently as October 28. Bears have outnumbered bulls in the AAII survey for the past two weeks. And the publishing of a book titled 1929 was very well publicized. I perceive that out in the general population there is a lot of fear about AI; lots of scaremongering about AI eliminating nearly all white collar jobs.

Cagdas Tuna comments:

Many years ago when I was a teenager, I heard this from the head of top brokerage firm in Turkiye and he said "It is not news until it matters." Circle funding of AI companies and its effect on jobs have been long discussed at least by the people I follow on social media but it has had no impact until yesterday. So can we say it has become news now?

Nov

20

That’s enough

November 20, 2025 | Leave a Comment

that's enuf lobagolaing at 6542

Mixed Identity : LoBagola, the Black-Jewish African Prince

An African savage’s own story chronicles the adventures of LoBagola, a self-proclaimed “Black-Jewish Prince,” as he traveled from his pretended “African birth place” to Great Britain and America.

LoBagola was, in truth, the alter ego of the Baltimore-born African-American, Joseph Howard Lee, who grew up in a life of poverty and deep racial discrimination. In response, Lee fabricated much of this autobiography, initially published as authentic by the leading New York publishing house of Knopf.

Gemini:

In the lore of investors, a LoBagola refers to a market pattern observed by famed speculator Victor Niederhoffer. It is likened to an elephant stampede: the market surges in one direction and then quickly returns along the same path, moving "back and forth".

Vic's X/twitter feed

Nov

20

Following the Equator has a good chapter on thugism and thugee is still part of culture i've found.

Thugee became known to the British authorities in India about 1810, but its wide prevalence was not suspected; it was not regarded as a serious matter, and no systematic measures were taken for its suppression until about 1830. About that time Major Sleeman captured Eugene Sue's Thug-chief, "Feringhea," and got him to turn King's evidence. The revelations were so stupefying that Sleeman was not able to believe them. Sleeman thought he knew every criminal within his jurisdiction, and that the worst of them were merely thieves ; but Feringhea told him that he was in reality living in the midst of a swarm of professional murderers ; that they had been all about him for many years, and that they buried their dead close by. These seemed insane tales; but Feringhea said come and see — and he took him to a grave and dug up a hundred bodies, and told him all the circumstances of the killings, and named the Thugs who had done the work. It was a staggering business.

Vic's X/twitter feed

Nov

19

A good time to buy

November 19, 2025 | Leave a Comment

a good time to buy. gentlemen haven't liked stocks now at 6630.

just getting started at 6650.

Vic's X/twitter feed

Nov

19

Ben Mallah is a real player in the real estate market and offers a palate cleanser that applies to any market.

I Put a House on Auction

Ben Mallah puts a recently renovated house up for auction. The video documents the preparation and the auction process itself, including discussions with the auctioneer and potential buyers. Viewers will see the property's features and the bidding unfold.

Nov

17

I see they are down [at least through Q2]:

FRED: Corporate Profits After Tax (without IVA and CCAdj)

Steve Ellison responds:

Interesting. S&P 500 earnings per share were up both year to date and year over year. And Q3 so far looks better than Q2.

S&P source spreadsheet: Click link to download file: S&P 500 Earnings.

Big Al wonders:

So maybe the big firms are doing better than the smaller ones?

Nils Poertner remembers:

Investment Bank earnings 2007…My very cerebral friend Maurice at the time: "IBs are cheap - look at their PE ratios."

Nov

15

Federal government current tax receipts: Taxes on production and imports: Customs duties

Asindu Drileba writes:

I remember when Trump spoke at a recent market open. (NYSE market opens at around 4:30pm in Uganda). Crypto closed very bullish on that day. Every time he mentioned "Tax Cuts" the market blipped some more. Laffer Curve at work?

Rich Bubb adds:

I was idea hunting and found Wisdom from Larry Williams:

Larry Williams: Why Gold, Bitcoin, and Stocks Are Flashing Warning Signs

Nov

13

The $38 Trillion Question: An Interview with Stanford Professor Hanno Lustig

Hanno Lustig: I started thinking about the valuation of government debt by looking at the valuation of all Treasuries. What do we have to believe to get to a number like $38 trillion? You must believe there will be a huge fiscal correction, because ultimately the value of debt should be backed by future primary government surpluses. When you do the numbers, you realize that either bond investors are pricing in a huge fiscal correction that seems impossible, or Treasuries are significantly overpriced.

Carder Dimitroff notes:

The interest on debt is approaching $1 trillion per year and continues to compound. Interest costs currently exceed Department of Defense spending.

Larry Williams disagrees:

Meaningless measure look at debt vs gdp

Carder Dimitroff responds:

Yes, that makes sense. However, from a different perspective, it becomes meaningful under the One Beautiful Budget Bill when automatic sequestrations are implemented. Unless new legislation is passed, sequestrations will result in Medicare cuts and other reductions in expenditures. Current projections suggest sequestration will present in early 2026.

Big Al checks with FRED:

Nils Poertner writes:

recession + zero short term rates + lots of QE ….leading to a lot more public debt
maybe that is more likely path.

Stefan Jovanovich offers some history:

This chart shows the solvency ratios that can be found from the Census and other data [by decade 1880 to 2020] - how much "we the people" have in money divided by how much the American governments promise to pay.

Nov

12

intellectual support / motivation to look at more extreme scenarios from time to time (extreme only appearing in the moment of course).

Hand writing: The Improbability Principle

The law of the probability lever is to do with choosing models. With poor assumptions even highly likely events can seem very improbable. Small changes in initial conditions can have an extremely large effect on outcomes.

Nov

11

Long-Term Asset Return Study - The Ultimate Guide to Long-Term Investing

This study examines how asset classes have performed across a wide range of macroeconomic, policy, and valuation environments. Drawing on data that in some cases stretches back to the 18th century, we analyse both nominal and real returns to understand how different assets have behaved under varying conditions. We explore correlations with key drivers such as real and nominal GDP growth, inflation, interest rates, bond yields, debt and deficit levels, and more — with the goal of helping investors tilt the odds in their favour.

Nov

10

The more goods cost, the more money visa makes since the fees they charge Issuing banks & acquiring banks are based on a percentage basis. So, higher prices (inflation) –> better predicted revenues for Visa? Inspired by a nice documentary on the history of VISA.

I wonder what the best indicator for inflation would be for testing this? CPI? Oil?

Cagdas Tuna writes:

I was thinking as to find a similar indicator for economic slow turn, spending cuts. It came to my mind to follow sales slips. I live in Malta which is a very tech friendly country for spending habits such as Apple/Google Pay availabilities, many digital banks access etc. I often asked if I need a receipt that I usually don’t. It depends for every country but if there is a rule for stores/restaurants to keep at least a copy for each transaction then it might be the indicator to follow. It might be used for inflation as well but of course needs detailed information.

Pamela Van Giessen comments:

To the best of my knowledge, merchants are not required to keep receipts. We track each sale but it will be the credit card processor or platform such as Square that holds the credit card or Apple or Google pay receipts. I can’t imagine that merchants would be willing to share their sales data. I know I wouldn’t.

Visa doesn’t care how much goods cost. They get their nearly 3% processing fee (+ .10 or .15 per transaction) whether there are 20 transactions for $100/ea or 40 transactions for $50/ea. In fact, they make more $ on a higher volume of transactions.

I don’t think tracking Visa or MC, etc could be a meaningful prediction of inflation as all the credit card companies continuously fight for market share. Note that they all send out multiple credit card offers to everyone all the time. Then, you have a store like Costco that only accepts their credit card (Citibank).

Additionally, there are people who use primarily cash. Those $ would be left out. You may say that cash use is low, and maybe it is. What I can tell you is that today at a market 80% of my sales were cash and that was likely the case for all the other merchants at this market. Older people especially use cash a lot. Just like drug dealers.

I have a theory that the cash economy is much bigger than everyone thinks. Insight into that might be more interesting.

Carder Dimitroff responds:

After considering Panela's cash sales point, I remembered that several companies required customers to switch from credit card payments to bank transfers. Additionally, several small establishments offer incentives for customers to pay in cash. They may be attempting to simplify their accounting and tax reporting. I do know that the federal government has immediate access to individual credit card transactions.

Pamela Van Giessen adds:

I thought it was the Fed that used to report on aggregated credit card data.

The other challenge with using credit card financials is that the credit card processors raise their % cut all the time. This is not due to actual inflation; it is due to them having a government protected moat that allows them to take more and more whenever they want because merchants are stuck with the whole system and consumers don’t realize that they will pay for the service — in increased prices. Every time Square, PayPal, etc., send me notices that they will be increasing fees, I increase my prices. I guess that is a kind of proxy for inflation but it’s a lousy sort of financial market induced inflation not based on anything more than their desire for more profits. I am all about free markets but the credit card processing biz is not even close to a free market.

The government using credit card processing to surveil us may be one reason I see more and more people using cash.

Larry Williams suggests:

Stock market is good predictor of inflation.

Nov

9

Came to our financial firm 2007 and gave a 100 page presentation full of bullet points and cartesian logic (why housing boom will last). Either 3,5, or 9 bullet points per page.

At the end of the presentation I was tempted to go over to the presenter and ask him "why do you love your wife? (I didn't). The answer might have been bullet points.

Pamela Van Giessen writes:

Michael Korda tells in his memoir, Another Life, of the time that Simon & Schuster hired probably the same prestigious consulting firm to study how to improve revenues/profitability. Prestigious consulting firm (after taking the prestigious consulting firm fee) told the publishing company that they should publish more bestsellers.

Laurel Kenner comments:

I bet the prestigious firm concluded with ‘Key Takeaways’ as a final insult to the intelligence of the client.

Asindu Drileba writes:

I heard that people pay consultancy firms not for their knowledge, but for the fact that executives use them as a scape goat. If an executive wants to pursue policy X. They simply hire a consultancy to recommend policy X. If policy X ends up as a disaster (legally, morally or financially). They can simply say "Policy X was an idea from XYZ consultancy", we had nothing to do with it.

Peter Ringel adds:

a variation of this are fighting owners/ partners about policy. If decision pipelines are blocked, external council is used. Like a neutral arbitrator. I think, these are the main situations externals are used. Usually a good reason to short the entity, especially outside of markets. If they don't have the capability to decide and act on strategy in-house, it‘s a red flag.

Henry Gifford responds:

Even better is hiring a licensed engineer to instruct everyone to do something stupid that they know won’t work, so everyone who did as the engineer decided is blameless.

Jeff Watson offers:

A consultant is a person who knows 1000 ways to make love to a woman…..but he doesn’t know any women.

Nov

8

"Tevye the Dairy Man" - one of my favs in High school.

In those days I was not the same person I am now. That is, I was the same Tevye, but different. As they say, the same old woman but under a different veil was then - may this never happen to you - as poor as poor can be, although, to tell the truth, I am by far no rich man today. You and I together should this summer earn what I would need to be as rich as Brodsky, but as compared to those days I am today a well-to-do man with my own horse and wagon, with a couple of, knock on wood, milch cows and another cow that is due to calve any day now. It would be a sin to complain, we have cheese and butter and fresh cream every day, all earned with our own labor, we all work, nobody is idle. My wife, bless her, milks the cows, the children carry the jugs and churn the butter, while I myself, as you see, drive to the market early every morning and call at every Boiberik dacha. I get to meet this person, that person, all the important people from Yehupetz, I chat a while with them and this makes me feel that I am also worth something in the world, that I am, as they say, no "lame tailor".

Tevye the Dairyman and the Other Stories, by Sholom Aleichem.

Vic's X/twitter feed

Nov

7

10 days since all-time high. very bullish.

Steve Ellison comments on CAPE:

[Click chart for original post on X.]

6637-6660 is an important level for the ES December contract; not breaching this level (yet) in today's selloff is short-term bullish in my opinion, but the second highest valuation in history means the longer-term risk is high.

And I'm not sure exactly what the "rolling historical average" is, but by my calculation, the 30-year average CAPE is 28, which might make 40 somewhat less overvalued.

Vic's X/twitter feed

Nov

6

I notice how journalist select for stories to use percentages versus discrete values to server their own interests and the "public" is easily confused. Today, they pick the number nearing 1T to describe Mr. Tesla's pay which seems high. But they could have framed the story as he could be raising his ownership to 12% to 25% of a company he founded. Not much of a story there. Other places like crime statistics they usually go with the %. As in violent crime has risen 100%, this could mean 1 homicide to 2. Without the data with percent's the conclusions are obfuscatory. Percents can never go down more than 99.9%, but they can rise by an infinite amount. This fact also leaves much room for spurious selection.

Nov

4

Edmund Clarence Stedman was the editor of this history, The New York Stock Exchange, quoted below on this site.

From Grok:

Edmund Clarence Stedman (1833–1908) was a prominent American poet, literary critic, and essayist, often dubbed the "Bard of Wall Street" for his successful dual career in literature and finance. Born in Hartford, Connecticut, on October 8, 1833, he was orphaned young after his father's death from tuberculosis and raised by relatives. He briefly attended Yale University (expelled after two years but later honored with a degree) before launching into journalism in the 1850s, working for outlets like the New York Tribune and New York World, including as a Civil War correspondent. He studied law and briefly served as private secretary to U.S. Attorney General Edward Bates.

Connection to the New York Stock Exchange

Stedman's ties to the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) spanned over three decades, from 1865 to 1900, where he worked as a banker and stockbroker on Wall Street. This financial role provided stability amid his literary endeavors, allowing him to support his family while pursuing poetry and criticism. After retiring from the Exchange in 1900, he remained deeply involved in its institutional history. In 1905, at age 71, he served as editor of the landmark publication The New York Stock Exchange: Its History, Its Contribution to National Prosperity, and Its Relation to American Finance at the Outset of the Twentieth Century, a comprehensive two-volume work commissioned by the Stock Exchange Historical Company. Co-edited with Alexander N. Easton and others, it chronicled the NYSE's evolution from its founding in 1792 under the Buttonwood Agreement through its role in American economic growth. The book, limited to 3,000 copies (with a rare signed edition of 50 for select members), is a key historical resource on early 20th-century finance.

Literary and Other Achievements

Parallel to his NYSE career, Stedman produced influential works like Poems, Lyrical and Idyllic (1860), Victorian Poets (1875), and massive anthologies such as A Library of American Literature (1888–1890, 11 volumes) and An American Anthology (1900). He also dabbled in science, proposing an early rigid airship design in 1879. Elected to the American Academy of Arts and Letters in 1904, he died in New York City on January 18, 1908, from heart disease, survived by two sons.

Nov

2

Optimism fulfilled

November 2, 2025 | Leave a Comment

The New York Stock Exchange
Its history, its contribution to national prosperity, and its relation to American finance at the outset of the twentieth century
Edmund Clarence Stedman, Editor
Stock Exchange Historical Company
New York, 1905

From the preface:

The present writer remembers the impression left upon an educated Englishman, a well-known publicist, who made a visit to Wall Street some eighteen years ago. He had been taken through the largest commercial structures in the vicinity, and even to the Stock Exchange itself, without giving expression to unusual interest. But on returning to his friend's offices, upon the upper floor of a building in the rear of the Exchange, he saw a sight that instantly gave him a realization of the extent of our peopled territory, and of the meaning of the Stock Exchange as the focus to which all currents of American purpose and energy converge. It was shortly before the time when the wires of New York's electric system were buried, by enactment, out of sight. Through the air, over New Street, hundreds, seemingly thousands, of these wires stretched toward the Exchange. No bird could fly through their network, a man could almost walk upon them; in fact, they darkened the street and the windows below their level. The visitor's host suggested that those going north, west, south were carrying messages to and from scores of inland cities and towns — financial ganglia of this land of national wealth and effort — names of which were mentioned. Certain wires were transcontinental, communicating with the towns of the Pacific States. Others served the uses of Montreal, Toronto and kindred points in the Great Dominion. Finally, the competing ocean cables were of course laden with incessant "arbitrage" and other messages to and from London, Paris and Berlin. This ocular demonstration of the relations of the New York Exchange to the Republic in its entirety, and even to the world overseas, proved almost startling to the English traveller. He asserted that within this central field of financial energy and intercommunication it was impossible not to have the imagination aroused, and the reason convinced of the enormous interests of which Wall Street, through its representative Exchange, is the ceaseless regulator. With philosophic impartiality, he predicted the time when even the largest money centres of the old world would become more or less subsidiary to this dominant market of the Western hemisphere.

Oct

30

Funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, five scientists associated with California's Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory claim that data centers are not a significant cause of retail electricity price increases. Counterintuitively, they suggest that data centers could have a beneficial effect in lowering costs. But more research is needed.

Factors influencing recent trends in retail electricity prices in the United States

Summarizing their "Ten Key Findings":

4.1. National-average retail electricity prices have tracked inflation in recent years.

4.2. State-level retail electricity price trends vary widely.

4.3. Residential customers and investor-owned utilities experienced greater increases.

4.4. Load growth has tended to depress retail electricity prices in recent years.

4.5. Behind-the-meter solar was associated with higher prices.

4.6. Utility-scale wind and solar are not—alone—broadly related to recent price increases.

4.7. State renewables portfolio standards are associated with recent price increases.

4.8. Exposure to natural gas price risk increases electricity prices when gas prices rise.

4.9. Hurricanes, storms, and wildfires have increased retail prices.

4.10. Several other variables appear to have limited statistical explanatory power.

Oct

29

An attempt

October 29, 2025 | Leave a Comment

An attempt by chair to halt margin of victory in 2026 for opposition.

Vic's X/twitter feed

Oct

29

70++ Trades the Miners
Laurel Kenner

When China suggested Oct. 9 it would strangle rare earth metal exports to the U.S., U.S. mining stocks looked like the easiest way to make a killing since the Internet bubble in 1999.

Being arrogant enough to believe myself among the few who saw the opportunity, I bought a mining stock targeted by Goldman Sachs for a 100% gain.

The stock rose. Then swooned. I sold.

It quickly rose past the earlier high. I bought again. It tumbled below where I had sold the first time.

Greed had led me to forget old investment wisdom. Such as a warning against trying to get even, from Max Gunther’s 1985 “The Zurich Axioms.” Entitled “Stubbornness”, the 11th Major Axiom accurately describes my trade.

I also should have remembered advice from Nick Colas, head of DataTrekResearch, who made his bones at Credit Suisse and Steve Cohen’s SAC Capital. It’s my job, he explained years ago, to know things before they land in the media.

Meaning that if someone is giving tips to news outlets, keep in mind that he inevitably will take better care of his interests than yours.

Read the full post:

70++ Trades the Miners

Oct

28

Looking at some of the megacaps and comparing their share price growth and FCF growth between Q2 2015 and Q2 2025. The price/FCF figures are the most recent.

Oct

27

Here’s an interesting breakdown and analysis of the debt of individual states. All the usual subjects are near the top.

Report ranks every state’s debt, from California’s $497 billion to South Dakota’s $2 billion

State governments had $2.7 trillion in debt at the end of 2023, a new Reason Foundation analysis finds. This state debt is equivalent to approximately $8,000 per person nationally.

On a per capita basis, Connecticut had the highest state debt, with $26,187 of debt per state resident at the end of 2023. With $22,968 in debt per resident, New Jersey was the only other state with more than $20,000 in liabilities per capita.

Reason Foundation finds 13 states—Connecticut, New Jersey, Hawaii, Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, Wyoming, Alaska, North Dakota, California, Washington, New York, and Vermont—had more than $10,000 in debt per resident.


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