Pre 2007 Victor Niederhoffer

Vic's writings from January 2007 onwards can be found under the site-category Victor Niederhoffer, which is linked from the sidebar, or by searching 'Victor Niederhoffer' on the site search engine. Below are Vic's archives from 05/2004 to 12/2006, and much of Vic's writing from before this time can be found on the web and in his two books, Education of a Speculator and Practical Speculations. 11/16/2006 Some Predictions 11/15/2006 Health and Sickness 11/14/2006 A Book Recommendation from a Wise Speculator 11/14/2006 Operant Conditioning 11/09/2006 Delays 11/07/2006 Some Numerical Queries 11/07/2006 A Primer on Correlation and Regression 11/06/2006 From the Jaws of Victory 11/03/2006 Deep in the Heart of Texas 11/02/2006 The Joke Revisited 10/31/2006 Humor of the Markets 10/30/2006 A Bintel Brief 10/27/2006 Some Variations on Happening Again 10/27/2006 One of the Greatest Men & More on the Fantasticks… 10/24/2006 Book Review: The Zurich Axioms 10/23/2006 Some Null Hypotheses 10/20/2006 Drift and the Long Bond 10/19/2006 A Comedy of Errors 10/19/2006 The Drift 10/18/2006 Mojave Crossing 10/17/2006 Rational Exuberance 10/17/2006 The Four Stages of Denial 10/17/2006 Quote of the Day 10/12/2006 The Average in Humans and Stocks 10/11/2006 Very Good in One Role and Very Bad in Another 10/09/2006 Briefly Speaking 10/08/2006 Extreme Values 10/06/2006 How to Act Smart in Front of Your Friends (With Russell Sears) 10/02/2006 Book Review: An Illustrated Guide to Theoretical Ecology 10/02/2006 Guaranteed to Happen 09/28/2006 Buoyancy and the Markets 09/25/2006 Following The News 09/25/2006 Book Review: The Math Behind the Music 09/25/2006 Asian Bears 09/25/2006 Negativity and the Markets 09/20/2006 Nobody Asked Me, But … 09/19/2006 Universal Principles 09/18/2006 Comparators and the Markets 09/13/2006 A Number of Friends 09/11/2006 Specialization and the Division of Labor 09/09/2006 Beneficent Circles 09/05/2006 A New Statistical Framework for the Markets 09/01/2006 It is Pleasing to Me 08/30/2006 On the Markets Last Week 08/28/2006 An Introduction to Bayesian Economics 08/27/2006 The Beauty of Competition 08/25/2006 Patrick O'Brian's Navy 08/22/2006 Trees: Their Natural History 08/15/2006 An Excellent Way of Gaining a Rudder 08/15/2006 A Topsy Turvy Market 08/08/2006 Degrees of Competitiveness 08/02/2006 Extinction 07/27/2006 On Earnings Reports 07/24/2006 Mother Goose 07/20/2006 A True Harbinger 07/19/2006 Counting Questions 07/12/2006 Preliminary Thoughts on Evolution and Sex 07/09/2006 Retrospective Numbers 07/07/2006 A Highly Recommended Book on Finance 07/06/2006 Torture in the Markets 07/03/2006 The Customs of an Operation Steeped in Peril 07/01/2006 Lessons from the Market Moves of May and June 06/30/2006 Briefly Speaking 06/27/2006 Market Imperfections 06/25/2006 Cyclicality, Students, Seasonality 06/24/2006 Briefly Speaking: On Declines 06/22/2006 Hysteresis 06/22/2006 Compression and Expansion 06/22/2006 The Influence of Anecdotes on Markets 06/11/2006 Cause and Correlation in Biology, A Review 06/04/2006 Leverage 05/31/2006 Betting on Myself: Adventures of a Horseplayer and Publisher, A Review 05/30/2006 Letter to a Newborn Son, Part IV 05/28/2006 Letter to Barron's Columnist Michael Santoli 05/21/2006 Ecology and Markets 05/20/2006 My Favorite Business Story 05/16/2006 Recursive Functions 05/13/2006 Letter to a Newborn Son, Part II 05/13/2006 Letter to a Newborn Son, Part III 05/05/2006 Letter to a Newborn Son, Part I 05/02/2006 Romance, Bernanke and Discrete Mathematics 05/01/2006 Some Lessons from a Harness Outing 04/29/2006 Thoughts on Restructuring and Meetings 04/27/2006 "Make It An Old-Fashioned, Please" 04/27/2006 A Good Market 04/24/2006 The Fallacy of Perfect Knowledge 04/24/2006 Earnings: A Penny Here, A Penny There 04/20/2006 Briefly Speaking: A Little Humbleness is Good for Investors 04/19/2006 Cycles 04/18/2006 Ambushes and Signals 03/29/2006 How To Raise a Spec Investor (Part II) 03/28/2006 How To Raise a Spec Investor (Part I) 03/26/2006 Does First Quarter Predict the Rest of the Year? 03/24/2006 The Importance of Little Things 03/23/2006 Forward and Back 03/21/2006 Quality versus Growth 03/20/2006 Socks, Stocks and Bundles of Trouble 03/19/2006 How to be Rich in Business, Markets and Life 03/16/2006 Applications for Series Parallel Circuits for Increasing Reliability in Markets and Machines 03/14/2006 Probability, Markets and Decision Making 03/12/2006 Book Review: Winning Ugly by Brad Gilbert 02/28/2006 Stocks Near the Round of 1300; Anatevka 02/27/2006 The Smell of Health: The Dog as Diagnostician 02/26/2006 Abelson a No-Show, but Bears Still Rule at Barron's 02/15/2006 The Origin of Species: A Daily Spec Foru 02/12/2006 7 Common Roads to Stock Market Disaster 02/10/2006 Conversion on the Road to Mountain View: Rethinking Google 02/08/2006 A Healthy Day 02/06/2006 A Hagiography 02/03/2006 Some Thoughts on Roulette Screens 02/03/2006 Briefly Speaking 02/03/2006 January Barometers, Super Bowls and Part-Whole Fallacies, by Dr. Victor Niederhoffer and Dr. Alex Castaldo 02/02/2006 Some Thoughts on Selling 01/29/2006 Market Lessons from Verdi's Rigoletto 01/27/2006 Briefly Speaking: Runs, Davos et al. 01/27/2006 Could ROE Provide for A Meal for a Lifetime? 01/26/2006 Ask the Chair: The Inner Game of Tennis 01/25/2006 Baroque Music and the Markets 01/24/2006 Asking the Right Questions 01/21/2006 A Note on Friday's Decline 01/20/2006 Briefly Speaking: The 2006 Jump Ball Bet; Binion's Luck; Linnaeus 01/19/2006 The Sage, What a Card! 01/19/2006 Shakeout 01/18/2006 Thoughts on Markets Inspired by "On the Origin of Species" 01/17/2006 High and Low 01/14/2006 Patterns of Life and Markets 01/11/2006 Lessons and Stories from a NY City Policeman 01/10/2006 Rational Herds 01/09/2006 A Year End Review 01/09/2006 Spec Library Purchases 01/06/2006 Repetition and the Crocodile 01/05/2006 Let's Vary Piracy with a Little Burglary 01/03/2006 Piracy 01/02/2006 'Hold the Bubbly' 12/31/2005 Herdlike Behavior in the Chicago Pit 12/29/2005 War and Peace 12/27/2005 The Duration and Prevalence of Recessions 12/24/2005 Variations on 'A Christmas Carol' 12/23/2005 Dividend Increases' 12/22/2005 Trade Deficits, Market Crashes and Rumors 12/21/2005 Briefly Speaking: Managed Futures, Dividends, Cascade Effects 12/20/2005 The Judas Goat and the Markets 12/19/2005 Book Review: Timing the Market: How to Profit in the Stock Market by Deborah Weir 12/16/2005 A Christmas Present: A Little Light on the P/E vs. Returns Speculations 12/15/2005 Briefly Speaking: Round Numbers at Year-End; Balmy Decembers; the Chairman Objects to Multiple Comps from the Firm's Stock Picker, and the Strong Letter That Ensued; A Conversation in the Woods 12/14/2005 P/Es and Returns 12/13/2005 Bear Corner: The Latest from the Weekly Financial Columnist 12/13/2005 Ephemera 12/10/2005 Are Annual Reports Predictive? Vic Looks at an Attempt to Systematize Analysis 12/09/2005 Goetzmann's History 12/08/2005 A Trading Story 12/07/2005 They Held Tightly to the Things They Knew Best 12/06/2005 Diffusion of Innovations 12/05/2005 Five Variations on the Economics of Location 12/01/2005 Frustration-Aggression Theory (by V. Niederhoffer and A. Castaldo, with responses) 11/29/2005 An Essential Book 11/28/2005 Two Conceptions of Communications 11/25/2005 Vic reviews 'Does trend following work on stocks?' 11/24/2005 Give Thanks for Pilgrims (and McDonald's) 11/23/2005 Large Caps 11/22/2005 End of Year Momentum 11/21/2005 Briefly Speaking: On Dr Fama 11/21/2005 Victor Niederhoffer reviews Fewer 11/15/2005 A Random Bearish Column Generator 11/14/2005 Predicting the Dow 11/11/2005 Antipredator Behaviour 11/10/2005 Briefly Speaking: Stasis; Demography; Proposal for Market Health Tests; Sayonara to a Bearish Scenario 11/10/2005 Quiddities 11/09/2005 Cisco Earnings 11/08/2005 Demographics and the Stock Market 11/06/2005 Leaf Shapes, Retail Success 11/06/2005 Retail Magic 11/05/2005 An Irony 11/04/2005 A Strange and Sensitive Situation 11/02/2005 Natural Humility 11/01/2005 The All-Seeing Eye 10/30/2005 Friday Rallies 10/29/2005 Sports Betting 10/28/2005 An Earnings Analysis 10/25/2005 On Round Numbers 10/24/2005 Dow Moves 10/22/2005 Startling Behavior 10/20/2005 A fitting tribute 10/18/2005 Momentum Vs Randomness 10/18/2005 Average Absolute Deviation 10/17/2005 Leaks and Announcement Effects 10/15/2005 Detritivores and Other Destroyers 10/13/2005 Market Moves 10/13/2005 A Note on Refco 10/10/2005 Don't Fear, the Numbers are Clear 10/08/2005 Opening Moves 10/07/2005 Fishing for a Bottom 10/06/2005 An Epic Day in the Market 10/05/2005 Broken Trends 10/02/2005 The Economic and Investment Implications of Delay 09/29/2005 Briefly Speaking 09/27/2005 Greenspan and the Real Estate Speculators 09/25/2005 Polar Coordinates 09/24/2005 I've got a little list 09/23/2005 Market tales of Summer 09/20/2005 Five Variations on Creative Destruction 09/19/2005 The Shape of Prices 09/17/2005 Music, Physics, Stocks & Buffett 09/16/2005 The Cruelty of the Market Mistress 09/15/2005 An Exchange of Letters Regarding a Doomsday Analysis of Dividend Yields 09/13/2005 Briefly Speaking 09/09/2005 Cane Investing 09/08/2005 The Four States of Matter 09/07/2005 The Wisdom of Crowds 09/07/2005 Recent S&P Ranges 09/05/2005 Evaporation and Markets 09/04/2005 Velocities and Distance 09/02/2005 To Rule the Waves 08/30/2005 Converting Rotary Motion 08/22/2005 Three Variations on Duplicity 08/22/2005 Like an old friend 08/16/2005 An Obituary for Jim Lorie 08/16/2005 Stocks as Mosaics 08/15/2005 Competition 08/15/2005 The Incidence of Epidemics 08/15/2005 Brokerage Stocks and the Market 08/10/2005 Briefly Speaking 08/09/2005 Random thoughts on the Market 08/08/2005 Briefly Speaking 08/08/2005 A Strange Incongruence 08/04/2005 Briefly Speaking 08/03/2005 On the Euro 08/01/2005 An Open Letter to Doomsdayists 07/30/2005 Dept of Hubris 07/29/2005 The Memoir 07/27/2005 What we can learn from Shells 07/26/2005 Horror Movies and the Abelbufflecketts 07/23/2005 Tension and Release 07/22/2005 Briefly Speaking 07/20/2005 The Laws of Actions and Reactions 07/18/2005 The Summer and Jim Lorie 07/15/2005 News Flash: Optimistic Headlines Rampant on Bloomberg! 07/14/2005 Travel through Books 07/14/2005 Tennis and the Markets 07/11/2005 Four Variations on Rates of Return in Commodity-Type Businesses 07/11/2005 An Interesting Discussion of Plant Problems 07/09/2005 Update: Decision-Making Under Uncertainty 07/08/2005 Final Consonance 07/08/2005 A review of 'Why Do Absolute Returns Predict Volatility So Well' by Lars Forsberg and Eric Ghysels 07/08/2005 Important Alert 07/06/2005 Models of the Stars 07/05/2005 Briefly Speaking 06/21/2005 Book Review: Data Driven Investing 06/21/2005 Ten Variations On The Theory of Least Effort 06/18/2005 A Review of the Hidden Language of Baseball 06/16/2005 Pocket Rockets 06/12/2005 Inspirations for Counting 06/12/2005 Broadway Review: Glengarry Glen Ross 06/12/2005 Strikeout 06/12/2005 Briefly Speaking 06/09/2005 A Review of 'Forecasting with Dynamic Regression' 06/08/2005 Hot Stories 06/07/2005 Practical microeconomics 06/02/2005 Variations of Tree Form 05/31/2005 The Iceman 05/27/2005 Summer Reading 05/27/2005 Alacritous Buying 05/27/2005 Tech Stock Valuation 05/25/2005 Understanding Dow Moves (with Chris Hammond and Charles Pennington) 05/25/2005 Ranges by Week 05/23/2005 Waiting in a Tree 05/23/2005 A Rare Event: S&P at 6-Year Low 05/21/2005 Review: Glengarry Glen Ross 05/21/2005 Waiting in a Tree: A Lobagola in Crude 05/20/2005 Orchestration 05/20/2005 Freakonomics, Bagels, Holidays 05/17/2005 Leads, Lags in Industry Groups 05/16/2005 Business Cycles 05/16/2005 A Good Research Project 05/13/2005 Bull & Bear Moves 05/12/2005 I Tip My Hat to the Mistress 05/07/2005 Cumulative Sum Control Charts 05/04/2005 Crude Reversal 05/03/2005 Two-Month Declines 04/29/2005 What the Commodities Markets Are Saying to the Fed 04/26/2005 Track and Floor 04/26/2005 Working Hypotheses 04/26/2005 Dividend Studies 04/22/2005 Needles in Haystacks 04/21/2005 Earnings: So Far, Very Good 04/20/2005 Nebraska Chronicles: The Sage's Best Ideas 04/19/2005 Beware the Slow Descent (IBM) 04/18/2005 Briefly Speaking 04/17/2005 Inflows, Outflows & Tax Day 04/12/2005 Behind the Form 04/11/2005 Racing and Markets: A forum started by Victor Niederhoffer 04/09/2005 Briefly Speaking 04/08/2005 The Pfizer Plagues 04/06/2005 Department of Misconceptions 04/06/2005 Misadventures in Stock Picking 04/04/2005 Pitching the Pinch 04/03/2005 The Elusive Altruism 04/01/2005 Monster Oil 03/28/2005 Optimal Foraging Theory 03/27/2005 Hand Study: Window Dressing 03/25/2005 Book Review: How to Become a Professional Con Artist 03/25/2005 Book Review: Creating Modern Capitalism 03/23/2005 Tail Wind Change in Commodities, with Postscript: The Silver Fox 03/23/2005 Analyzing Board Meetings 03/22/2005 Father/Fed Approval 03/21/2005 A Variable to Consider: Distance From 20-Day High/Low 03/21/2005 When Will Disillusionment With Buffett Set In? 03/20/2005 Book Recommendations 03/18/2005 World Markets 03/17/2005 A Visit to the UPenn Bookstore 03/16/2005 A Review of The Big Con by David Maurer 03/16/2005 Don't Get Conned by the Most Admired Companies 03/15/2005 Why I Don't Believe in Trends 03/13/2005 CEO Resignations 03/13/2005 After the 20-Point Decline, What Then? 03/13/2005 Theater Review: "Dirty Rotten Scoundrels" 03/08/2005 S&P Dot Plot 03/07/2005 Corporate Corruption 03/03/2005 P/E Perspective 03/02/2005 Intraday Moves 03/01/2005 Power Laws 03/01/2005 Commodities: 1% a Year for Two Centuries 02/28/2005 Variations on the Big Con 02/25/2005 Statistical Musicology 02/18/2005 FDA Hearings Showed Rise 02/18/2005 Economics of Volatility 02/16/2005 Reflections - FDA 02/15/2005 Spin-Offs 02/11/2005 All Gamblers Die Broke 02/10/2005 The Big Con 02/07/2005 Nobody Asked Me - Feb. 02/06/2005 Competitive Strategy 02/02/2005 External Controls and Incentives 02/01/2005 January Effect 02/01/2005 Strategy by Liddell Hart 01/29/2005 Wedges and Markets 01/27/2005 Dulcinea 01/23/2005 Review of Academic Work on Evolution of Industries 01/21/2005 The Sage Bloviates on the Dollar, Trade Deficit 01/20/2005 Virtues of Being Certain vs. Taking Risk 01/20/2005 Bellwethers 01/19/2005 Pfizer's 103-Page Interim Report 01/18/2005 Resigned 01/14/2005 Guaranteed Losers 01/13/2005 Father Random, Part II 01/12/2005 The Current Account Deficit: Nobody Asked Me, But… 01/12/2005 Unobtrusive Measures: The Story of Joe McNay and the Yale Endowment 01/09/2005 Gloom, Doom and Record Books 01/01/2005 Film Review: The Aviator 12/26/2004 Nobody Asked Me, But… 12/26/2004 Writings of Marty Whitman, Value Investor 12/24/2004 Reduced Capital 12/23/2004 Higledy Pigledy 12/23/2004 Sometimes a Word is Very Important 12/21/2004 It is rare … 12/19/2004 Relative health in Asia and the US 12/17/2004 Thoughts inspired by the Wisdom kids 12/14/2004 The Election Effect 12/14/2004 Socialist Weekly Tosses Capitalist Coin, Finds Workers Lose Heads or Tails 12/12/2004 Bear Watch 12/09/2004 Contagion and Crude Contagion 12/07/2004 Reflections on Jefferson 12/06/2004 10 Variations on themes of Fibonacci and Markets 12/04/2004 Making a Living 12/02/2004 Nothing Humdrum About Numbers 11/01/2004 November Diary: Idiot Savant vs. Bessel; Juggling Math; A Strong Beginning; Body Snatchers; Bee in the Bonnet 11/22/2004 Anatomy of an Old Time; Intel's ;Bad News; Shakeout 11/18/2004 Vestiges of Jesse Livermore 11/15/2004 Patting Yourself on the Back 11/08/2004 Father Random 11/03/2004 Revulsion 11/03/2004 Election Day Study (with Duncan Coker) 11/02/2004 Frequency of First Digits 11/01/2004 Dolphin Diner 10/28/2004 Nelson Strategy 10/28/2004 Market to Rossini: You Can Get Up Now 10/28/2004 A New Idee 10/27/2004 The Soros Compound 10/26/2004 The Hippocratic Oath 10/26/2004 Blue Market: ""I Expect the Market Will be Way above 1100 by Christmas" 10/22/2004 Casanova 10/20/2004 The Physics of the Inclined Plane 10/20/2004 3Q Earnings: Perception and Propaganda 10/20/2004 Take Out the Canes 10/17/2004 Trading Lessons From L'Amour's Hondo 10/13/2004 Metals Meltdown 10/13/2004 Lobagola Redux 10/12/2004 "This Isn't Squash" 10/09/2004 Magic Squares 10/06/2004 Update on the Fed Model 09/24/2004 Signal, Shoulder, Mirror 09/24/2004 Trees and The Axiom of Uniform Stress 09/22/2004 Corn: A Dangerous Commodity to Nibble On 09/22/2004: Thoughts on Buy and Hold 09/19/2004: The Oldest Profession 09/16/2004: A Conversation With a Great Man 09/15/2004: The Joys of Trend Following 08/21/2004: The Normal Variation 08/10/2004: Quote of the Day Supply and demand vs. oil prices 08/07/2004: Flagition and Friday 08/05/2004: One Notes… Interesting examples of convergence. 08/03/2004: No one asked me but… Victor answers 12 questions that nobody asked. 08/02/2004: The Creative Power of Enterprise An uplifting exercise. 08/02/2004: Trendists versus Reversalists Who is really making the money and why. 07/30/2004: The Rain in Siberia… …falls mainly after the crop has been harvested. 07/29/2004: The Myth Thread The Power of Myth 07/28/2004: 12 Thoughts Sparked by the Euro near 1.20. 07/28/2004: Review of Delovely. 07/20/2004: A Contest of Extremes. Contest with a $500 reward. 07/20/2004: The Rhythms of the News. Musings on those with fixed beliefs. 07/20/2004: An Interesting Dance. Moby Dick and the Markets 07/16/2004: A Happy Thought. "everythinggggs uppa xcept my widdlaaar" 06/29/2004: Deception in Retail Comps. Tips from a master of the retail trade over lunch at the Century Club. 06/28/2004: The Tower of Hanoi. Difference equations. 06/23/2004: The Darwinian Speculator: A collection of comments from the Chairman and other Specs. 06/22/2004: Summertime in the Market. Changes in the market ecology relating to the public's contributions to the infrastructure. 06/22/2004: Shorting Berkshire 06/15/2004: Film Review: "Broadway: The Golden Age" 06/15/2004: Herd Behavior in the S&Ps. 06/11/2004: A Word on Jobs. With comment by Donald Boudreaux, George Mason University. 06/09/2004: Racquet Sports and the Market 06/09/2004: Market Sins 06/09/2004: Movements and Comovements 06/08/2004: Academic Arbitrageurs 06/04/2004 The Cobweb Theorem. A True Application and Precursor of "Reflexivity" 06/04/2004 Lessons in Bargaining. Stalking horses, substitution, bright colors, simplicity. 05/31/2004: The Specs in Vegas. Deception, roulette. 05/31/2004: Price as Rationer. Economic principles. 04/26/2004: Variability. The central concept in statistics, with comment by Steve Stigler. 04/26/2004: Seasonality Redux. Changing cycles and day-of-week anomalies, with comment by Philip J. McDonnell 04/23/2004: Stock Tradin'. A typical day in the market seen in the light of Ben Green's Horse Tradin', a book we cannot recommend enough to Speculators in any market. With Laurel Kenner 04/13/2004: Never Lose on Two Different Sides in One Day. Strategy. 04/13/2004: Promotions. Pretenders. 04/06/2004: Resilience. A letter from an EdSpec reader inspires an exchange on losses. 01/05/2004: Economics of Location. Vic explores the subject quantitatively after a trip to Istanbul.


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