Apr

21

 The fun spec party trip to the Meadowlands racetrack highlighted many Dailyspec themes. Bacon talked about changing cycles. A system tends to draw down as cycles change. In The Logic of Failure Dorner discusses identifying the dependency of variables in a complex system Some variables regularities may be conditional. A fixed system could be filtered by a variable such as a rising TED spread to avoid degradation in a changing cycle.

The second theme of the trip to the races was that you don't really know about your theories until you have some skin in the game. Also it may not matter so much what your system or theory is as long as you have a theory you can stick with that isn't a sure loser.

The fascinating spec party easter bonnet parade down 5th Ave on a beautiful spring New York day is best recapped by the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principal.
 Just the act of observation changes the outcome. No one is just an observer. By your presence you create and are part of the event and change its reality. Some folks had outrageous bonnets, some watched. All were part of the event.

Wandering around New York on a random fashion highlighted the benefits of randomness, chance and observation. Strolling back from the parade we chanced into the broadway play of Of Mice and Men by Steinbeck starring James Franco and Chris Dowd who gave a great performance.

As Yogi Berra once said it's amazing what you can learn by observing. Many thanks to the Chair and Susan for a wonderful weekend and for the generous hospitality.


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