Dec

18

It is interesting to note that the serial correlation of the one day moves on consecutive fed (FOMC announcement) days is -0.23 %.

The last one was down 1/2 %. One notes the scholarly market is up about 1/3 of a % today . I hypothesized that the Governors would not wish to inflict pain in their December meeting.

on Dec 11, 2012 meeting. market down 1.5%.

on Dec 14, 2010 meeting market unchanged 0%

on Dec 15, 2009 meeting, market down 1/2 %
on Dec 16, 2008 meeting market up 4%
on Dec 11 2007 meeting market down 3%
on Dec 12, 2006 meeting market unchanged
on Dec 13, 2005 meeting market up 1/2 %
on Dec 14, 2004 meeting market up 1/2%
on Dec 9, 2003 meeting market down 1/2%.
on Dec 19, 2002 meeting market down 3%.

Another hypothesis hits the dust.

Strangely all the December meetings since 1996 were on Tuesdays, i.e. one day meetings. The Governors are working harder with this two day meeting. vic


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