Civics, from Duncan Coker

January 25, 2012 |

 I thought it my civic duty to do some counting this eve of the annual presidential address to congress. Who in fact is the best speaker of the century ( or at least 1930), not in terms of rhetoric, but in terms of moving the market up. I am using Dow industrial index since 1928 understanding there are substitution and other biases involved. Looking a week after the speech, here are the average percentage moves ranked by president.

Bush Sr  1.5%  n=4
Clinton 1.3%  n=8
FDR  1.2%  n=9
Reagan .7%  n=7
Truman .6%  n=7
Johnson .6%  n=6
Ford .6%  n=3
Bush Jr .2%  n=8
Kennedy (0.9%)  n=3
Eike (.6%)  n=8
Carter (1%)  n=4
Hoover(2%)  n=4
Nixon(2.3%)  n=4
Obama(2.5%)  n=3

all Reps (.20%)  n=38
all Dems .35%  n=40

There were a total of 78 speeches in the period. Here is an interesting link.

The Democrats appear to be more beguiling speakers at least to the markets' ear.

I would be glad to add Grant in honor of Stefan if someone will forward any market data from 1869 to 1876. I am sure U.S.G would bring up the Rep. average.


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