Jan

12

 Just did some searches and found 6 apocalypse theories for Dec. 21, 2012.

Though they can be judged by many as BS theories, they are not trivial ones, and should have many believers.

A search on Amazon for 2012 yields these popular books.

There are also some analysis from the scientific side regarding likely potential disasters that could happen at any time, including the strengthening solar storms, the earth's weakening magnetic field, the super volcanoes both under the sea and on land, etc. All this strengthens people's belief about the incoming apocalypse.Depressed feelings from world economies will also exacerbate for the belief. Further on that, people's herding instinct will tremendously increase the number of believers.

What is more important is how people think others believe in it, and more, how people think others think others believe in it, and so on. My feeling is that these derivative expectations will be very strong. The two sides (believers and non-believers) will become polarized as we move on in the year, with the believers dominating as we come closer to the date.

Is it reasonable to expect the following for this year and beyond from all this?

1) Ordinary investment assets will have high volatility (due to large fights between believers and non-believers), resulting in a depressing trend (possibly a panicking one) for later part of the year (believers win). This should apply to real-estate, arts, antiques, many commodities, and the overall stock markets.

2) Some consumption will see large increases in both price and volume, including entertainment, pleasure, food-drinks, tourism, transportation, luxurism, exoticism, etc.

3) Related equities and commodities will increase in value, but market will still remain downward biased. Most commodities will face backwardation.

4) Interest rates will likely go up, and banks may face liquidity problems.

5) If the world doesn't end as anticipated, world economy will likely have a big recovery in 2013 as a result of all the 2012 activities.

6) Prices will shoot to new highs starting at the end of 2012 for many assets.

Anyhow, with this stone cast, I beg for the real jade.


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