A Spec notes: I have found that markets are moving in the direction of the announcement to an inordinate extent recently. And relates it to who knows what and the sneakers he sent the fake Doc and the book he sent to Patrick Ewing, the most sullen player to ever put on baggy long shorts, asking these two to change places. But Rocky is doubtful and demands to see the evidence.

Philip J. McDonnell comments:

Personally I am waiting for Occupy the White House. But that is not likely to come from the ACORN backed OWS movement. The Chair can use me as a human shield. But in a sense I agree with Rocky but for a different reason. I assume you are speaking of a significant correlation regarding such pre announcement movements. The practical problem is that all one can really assert is that someone figured it out in advance. For example the jobs number can be gamed by looking at the number of jobs posted on Monster.com or even craigslist.org. If the market moves in advance is it because someone leaked or someone legally gamed it using a little cunning. Personally I lean toward the conspiracy/leak theory as more likely but it fails the legal hurdle of proof.

The other problem is that legal standards require proof beyond a reasonable doubt, but we trade on mere correlations alone. We also know that correlation does not imply causation but it is usually good enough to trade on.


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