Oct

5

Would everyone agree that the employment numbers serve the same purpose today that the money supply did 15 years ago. Merely a number to make people weak and to flexionisize so that more money to the cronies will be paid. How can the ADP numbers be up while the BLS numbers are down when they both take the same sample. Surely the seasonal adjustments and hedonistic adjustments can't be that different. There must be immense horsetrading going on with the numbers being vetted back and forth, and heads up to the various cronies going this way and that way before the final meaningless tweaks are given. Depends on how close to an election also one would think. Do you feel this is all wrong on my part and I am much too cynical?

George R. Zachar comments:

 One can't be too cynical in this environment.

The ADP and BLS samples do overlap, but they are not identical, the former being literally just the businesses serviced by ADP.

Also the massaging is rather different, with ADP's count subjected to secret sauce by Larry Meyer's firm in St. Louis. And g-d knows what manipulations BLS performs in its bowels.

How odd ADP reported +91 today, having reported
+91 last time, and Blankfein's shop touting a
+91 topline forecast just now on CNBC. Bloomberg
reports +90 is consensus for private payrolls.

The clustering and repetition could be a coincidence, but that's hardly the way to bet these days.


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