Panic, from Andrea Ravano

March 15, 2011 |

 Thanks God the panic indicator is back!

The telephone started ringing early in the morning with frantic if not fearful voices of all sexes, inquiring if it was the right moment to dump Asian, European, American, shares, Oil, Natural Gas and start investing at zero percent on Swissie and JPY. As the trading day went by, along with the Dax 30 down 5.5 percent, down went the tone of the panicky voices and up the inquiries to sell.

To say the absolute truth, one does not yet own the Magic to foretell future with unfair odds, but some gut feeling mixed with reasoning as to the speed of the sell off, yes, that we have. Thus the perfect buying moment came as the "oneandonly" came in asking in despair what I thought of the Japanese Market. Indeed, it was not a question. It waited no answer, as I tried to calm the chap down and work out some figures and logical thoughts about NIkkei, and stock markets in general.

Yet, everything to no avail. The answers were already built in by the fear of further losses, irrespective of the possibility of cane buying or economic prospects rosier than these sad times are telling us.

Probably some bottoming out process will have to take place before we can ring the "all clear" siren, but one first, small sign was visible in the depth of the fearful investor's eye.

Steve Ellison writes: 

Recently I reread "A Specialist in Panics". The author recounts:

As a constant reminder I printed a sign with my name at the top and beneath the words:

Specialist in Panics

Below I put this query with a blank space for the answer:

Question: Panic Today?

Answer:  ____________

I decided to buy only when I could truthfully write yes as the answer to the question.

For the first time in 2011, one might have answered yes during the last 24 hours.

Ken Drees writes:

This reminds me of Justin Mamis' work– paraphrasing here:

Buy only when your hand is trembling with fear as you can hardly pick up the phone to call your broke.


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