Clever HansThere is the famous story about the horse that could do basic math, but was really picking up on the subtle clues of the professor that "thought" him when to stop stomping the hoof. I suspect this was what Paul [The Octopus] was doing also.

However, intuition comes with experience. Intuition can be counted, to help figure out how you "knew" or if it pure personal biases and random.

Marlowe Cassetti comments:

Isn't that what they refer to as self confirmation bias? I know someone who showed me how using Stochastic Oscillator (a BS misnomer) of several time spans one can make great profits trading options. When I point out some glaring exceptions that he conveniently overlooked, he counters that no indicator is perfect. Believing is seeing, but don't quit your day job.


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