Jul

6

Stocks are roughly flat over the past 13 years, albeit with considerable volatility. A similar pattern occurred in the 1963-82 period. The attached chart compares log DOW monthly closes for two periods: 5/63-4/82, and 5/97-6/10 (dates on the X-axis are all from the older period).

Comparison suggests the 63-82 period was characterized by smaller peak/valley amplitude and more frequent swings (advances/declines) than the recent period, which (so far) had larger and longer regimes.

Does a more "accommodative" FED lead to bigger bubbles, and if so, what happens with perma-accommodation vis-a-vis Japan?


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