Apr

3

The quarter just ended gained 7.4% in the DJIA, after two prior qtr which gained 15% and 11%. Long ago (March 2009) there was a down quarter. Looked for other instances with quarterly return pattern DUUU, also stipulating that the up-qtrs gained more than 5%. Here are the dates, along with the return for the following quarter:

Date        DUUUX qtr
06/01/99    -0.058
09/01/95     0.068
03/01/83     0.081
03/01/71    -0.015
06/01/54     0.081
12/01/38    -0.146
12/02/35     0.085

avg             0.014
stdev          0.090

t                0.408

As a wakeful friend pointed out, we are now up 4 consecutive quarters after the down Q1 2009(or DUUUU). Here are the subsequent qtr assuming all 4 were up >4%:

Date          DUUUUX
09/01/87    -0.253
03/02/36     0.009
06/01/83     0.009
12/01/95     0.092
09/01/54     0.122

avg            -0.004


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