I hypothesize that there is a fulcrum in markets at six months from the lows. The idea comes to me from the well known fact (well known to divorce lawyers, at least) that hostility within couples reaches a maximum in February. I hypothesize that as the circular distance from February/from the low increases, the hostility recedes to harmony and back again and that a similar phenomenon occurs in markets. How to test?

Alan Millhone has some predictions:

A MIt is predicted holiday sales will be down this year, isn't it? Also I think many couples will stick it out for now as they can share one roof and different bedrooms! Also many are too financially strapped to file and pay for a divorce. I hypothesize a fall in the divorce rate. I have a couple who live together and have rented from me for ten years. Both draw SSI. She would like to get rid of him but he pays half the rent, so he is still there. This shopping season should be interesting. On another note I bought and moved a very large safe today from a customer of mine. My locksmith re-comboed it and said safes like this are scarce. Demand for safes will be strong, but I did not buy it for price appreciation — I have always liked safes!


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