In discussing the importance of deception, Stonewall Jackson minced no words: "Always mystify, mislead, and surprise the enemy if possible, and when you strike and overcome him, never let up in the pursuit so long as your men have strength to follow, for an army routed, if hotly pursued, becomes panic stricken and can then be destroyed by half the number. The other rule is never fight against heavy odds, if by any possible manoeuvering you can hurl your own force on only a part, and that the weakest part of your enemy and crush it. Such tactics will win every time, and a small army may thus destroy a large one in detail, and repeated victory will make it invincible." This quote from the excellent and non-PC book Don't Tread on Me by H. W. Crocker III, bought at the Military Bookman, is similar to one in Education of a Speculator and could have come directly out of Liddell Hart.

It has myriad applications in markets, but let us start with the 23 point drop on 09 01 2009. What could have been more unexpected? On the liberal almanackian's favorite day of the month, the day that is above all completely invulnerable. It started at 11:00 with a nice 15 point drop. Apparently the forces of the bears were marshalled by an invisible hand to destroy the weakest part of the enemy that was fearful because of the random September bias. It would have taken only a few divisions of the bears to mount that attack. And once they were near Mr. Round, it was only a question of when the crush would occur. They did destroy a large one in detail but reinforcements were sent in, perhaps under the generalship of bobby bull.

Ken Drees adds:

Actually the first ambushes occurred on 8/31, one day ahead of schedule, scattering the light rifle infantry trying to hold the flank in sparse woods. They were thus chased into the treelines and foothills on 9/1 and quickly captured, killed or disperse — but, reinforced by better terrain and dug in forces, the maruaders had to retreat, regroup and reassess. A strong down — maybe not fully over?

This well announced September weakness has shrugged off a first assault, but has taken some casualties due to too many non battle days and lax preparedness on the fringe as scouts and light rifle infantry were routed. But now the company has been alerted to the fact of attack — how strong is this force? And how strong are the bull defenders? It's been quiet for three days now.

Victor Niederhoffer replies:

But such moves overcome the least observable difference and therefore are prone to enemy reinforcements as Irving Redel, former chairman of Comex, a mentor, and great man often likes to say.

Irving Redel


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