Apr

2

As the S&P 500 is up more than 20% from its lows. It took only 12 calendar days for the S&P 500 to move up 20% from the March 6 low. In this regard, faster may not be better. There has been a strong positive correlation (R squared = 0.51) between the length of time of the initial 20% advance and the ultimate magnitude of the advance before the next 20% decline. The predicted top for this advance is 846, but the margin of error is wide.

First           Total
   date Calendar calendar
   20%     days    days    Gain  log(gain
  above   after  bottom  bottom   bottom
 bottom  bottom  to top  to top  to top)
 01/05/88      77    1000     71%    0.23
 02/06/91     118    2839    304%    0.61
 11/02/98      25     533     68%    0.23
 05/21/01      60      61     22%    0.09
 11/08/01      48     108     25%    0.10
 08/15/02      22      29     24%    0.09
 11/04/02      25    1827    105%    0.31
 10/14/08       4       4     24%    0.09
 11/28/08       7      46     27%    0.11


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