Sep

28

A Veltman1/ Gold: our suspicions, based on decline in Open Interest, proved right. The jump $780 -> $891 was entirely on Spec short-covering, while Commercials liquidated longs. This is not the hallmark of flight-to-safety circa '79-'80. On the other side of the coin, Silver commitments relatively improved: Commercials unexpectedly covered some shorts during the jump $10.52 -> $13.17, while Specs covered some longs. Open interest gains in Platinum Group Metals (PGM) proved not of bullish make-up: Commercials duly shorted the rally. Note: both PGMs already slid nearly 10% in three days since the report!

2/ Nov Crude $15 mark-up occured, as Large Spec short-covered Oct Crude! Small Specs went Net new Short into Novee rally — making us much friendlier! Moreover, bullish C.O.T. divergence is uncovered in RBOB: Commercials became 10% more Net Long in course of 10% price rally! NG commitments improved a bit further: Large Specs notched yet another Short Open Interest record, while sentiment is bordering dramatically over-sold!

3/ CD and BP 4% rally didn't trigger Commercial selling; thus, we can expect more rally! Not as bullish in EU, SF, JY, AD.

4/ SP futures quarterly rollover showed plenty of Commercial short-covering, while Small Specs assumed new shorts — a recipe for a dramatic short-covering rally!

5/ Treasuries display dramatic Open Interest drop-off, a sign that little quality is perceived in traditional "flight-to-quality." Of note: the only willing shorts at the short-end remain Commercials; while Specs are bearish long-dated!


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