Jan

2

The turn of the year

January 2, 2022 |

thank you to all my correspondents, happy new year. let us hope that the same regularities, drift greet us next year. there seems to be no negative correlation between the S&P moves in one year and the next. in other words the 27% gain this year is not abnormally bearish.

on the two occasions that the S&P dropped a little on dec 31 during the last 10 years, it was bullish for all the relevant subsequent periods. however, on the 6 occasions where the S&P was up big over the preceding 5 months, it was bullish for Jan but there was one big decline that occurred around May that brought the expectation down big.

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