Nov

26

Markets, markets

November 26, 2021 |

query: do turning pts in crypto lead and create an inordinate tendency for turning pts in gold? crypto had a turning point with etherium up 7%. gold straight down 60 bucks in 4 days before Thanksgiving.

there is a positive monthly correlation between consecutive months. when prev month is up, the next month is up 70 % of time versus 50% up when the previous month is down. the magnitudes are about 1/2% in the positive case and about 0 for next month when prev month down.

the force of destiny and the 12 inevitable forces. the 13th force is a rising stock market, say 10,000 sp in 2 years and 30000 nikkei very soon. the reasons are regulatory capture, power of compound interest, a 15% hurdle rate for invested capital versus a 2% bond rate, et al.

the triumphal trio - the greatest scholars providing periodic table of markets. i was first person to lionize their work - and hopefully they will abrogate their English Disease in future and will not be predicting a Galtonian regression as in past. [See also: GFD Guide to Global Stock Markets]

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