Final Prediction

September 28, 2020 |

Stefan Jovanovich writes: 

On election day Trump will be behind in every battleground state by a margin of at least 4 points.  The public polling numbers will look even worse than they did in 2016.  The current raw poll data - ignore RCP et. al. - shows Trump with a 40% chance of winning - which is what he had at this time in 2016.

I am betting against those odds and predicting that Trump will win, based on two assumptions about "events": 

(1) on Saturday he will choose Barbara Lagoa as his nominee and the Democrats will do a Kavanaugh melt-down that lock down Florida and gain Trump 2-4 points in Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico and Colorado.  It may even save Cory Gardner.  If he chooses Amy (Opus Dei) Barrett, he loses.

(2) the 3rd quarter GDP and economic numbers will be a blow-out that will ease the minds of the people who still resent Trump for allowing himself to be conned into betraying the people who earn a living outside of the corporate, government and non-profit moat - the land that I now think of as Oregano world..

Daniel grossman writes: 

Thanks Stefan.

I agree, Trump will win.  Although the Dems will put a tremendous final effort into PA and the Midwest swing states, so it will be touch and go.

Lagoa is the smart political choice.  Harder to attack a Wise Latina.

Zubin Al Genubi  writes: 

Stefan, Now that he chose Barrett do you and all you other Trump supporters on this list think he will lose?  And do you continue to think this is bearish?


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