Sports statistics all show that you should go for it on fourth and short but going for it three times led to the Ravens loss. It provides a caution to those who follow market regularities religiously. There is a good thread on this at VicNiederhoffer@twitter.com.

Ralph Vince writes: 

Football is peculiarly about making the wrong mathematical decisions. I'm not sure why it is, but I suspect the rapid turnover in coaches and the fact that there is an unavoidable second-guessing in the press and by fans, helps coerce these mistakes.

The most glaring example of this is the (lack of) 2 pt conversions. Mathematically, there are a host of times where this should be taken though you'll never see it. When was the last time a tea in the lead ever took one in the first half?

Russ Sears writes: 

Besides second guessing by the press and the fans there's second guessing by their own teammates. The defensive team doesn't like the offense to take risk because they feel they could have stopped the other teams offense given the chance. It's like couples deferring to their partner's lack of risk tolerance.

Ralph Vince writes: 

Team sports, by our definition, should ipso facto be more inherently risk-averse than individual sports.

Alston Mabry writes:

Just re the NFL, I was listening to a roundtable interview with players, and the question was, "What's harder to play, offense or defense?" And I was surprised when the unanimous verdict was defense. The explanation was that the offense knows what's going to happen, whereas the defense doesn't, which adds an extra level of stress and is one reason why you hear about the defense "getting tired" by the 4th quarter but you never hear that about the offense.

Ralph Vince writes:

In terms of expected yards per play, because players at the pro level are so good, it;s hard to argue against the fastest receivers getting out ahead of of coverage, and not throwing the ball short; the potential interference call makes the average yards per play considerably higher.

In football gambling, it is ALL about average yards per play.


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