This "Bubbles" study was posted some time back. It is difficult to know if it is predictive in the current climate.

In the past housing 'busts' have had longer lasting and more extensive GDP effects than stock market busts. To qualify as a bust the housing market has to lose more than 14% of its peak 'boom' value. So I understand that the US is now there.

From Laurence Glazier:

I am sure that the human spirit will drive the market ever forward, along with the entropic force that requires participants to have at least a minimum incentive. But the use of what seems to the uninitiated (like me), like complex credit derivatives, along with wide acceptance of multiple mortgages, leads me to images of bubbles and pins (quite apart from finely balanced domino structures).

One hopes to learn more and be reassured.



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