The December Jobs data is neither encouraging nor exciting. Admittedly there is considerable hope and some announcements of future hiring, but of course no change is yet visible. I will post a chart based on payroll taxes this week before Friday.

One particular concern for future jobs should be the minimum wage hikes. It is rational to expect that higher minimum wage rates in some locales will stifle employment increases in those locations while neighboring areas experience growth. The good side of these rules is that each changed location will in effect become an economic Petri dish, so we finally get to see unequivocal evidence on the matter. Local experiments that underperform are better than a failed national experiment.

It is also possible that reductions in regulations (among other changes) will create such a successful business climate that demand for workers will render minimum wage laws moot.


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