Nov

14

 My theory is that the general election was decided by the way the HRC-DNC axis betrayed the Bernie Sanders voters, especially particular groups of them. The argument, as a timeline:

(1) Pew Research releases a survey in late July but "mostly completed before Sanders announced that he would support Clinton on June 24". The survey generated a lot of headlines that basically ran, "90% of Sanders voters will vote for Clinton". The breakdown of the survey results were as follows:

Dem voters who consistently backed Clinton in previous surveys (Dec, Mar and Apr): 29% of all Dem voters: Now support in general election: Clinton: 98% Trump: 2%

Dem voters who consistently backed Sanders in previous surveys (Dec, Mar and Apr): 20% of all Dem voters: Now support in general election: Clinton: 90% Trump: 8% Neither: 2%

Dem voters who switched between Sanders and Clinton in previous surveys (Dec, Mar and Apr): 44% of all Dem voters: Now support in general election: Clinton: 88% Trump: 9% Neither: 3%

(7% were Undecided in surveys.)

What this shows is that 8.7% of consistent Bernie voters and switch voters favored Trump vs Clinton as of late June, with another 12% in the Neither/Undecided camp.

Pew doesn't break these numbers down by region or state, but the title on their demographics chart reads, "Consistent Clinton supporters were more likely to be black, older, better educated". Looking at the demographics reveals that consistent Bernie supporters were more likely to be young, white and male.

(2) WikiLeaks releases the DNC emails on 22 July, just before the Democratic Convention. The emails create a scandal because they paint a picture of the DNC as an active ally with the HRC campaign against the Sanders campaign and also disparage and deride the Sanders camp.

It's important to remember that the Sanders campaign started out from scratch and had no national organization at all, especially compared to the HRC campaign. Sanders did not create a SuperPAC for fundraising but instead just took individual donations and ran a largely grassroots campaign. Yet he received 43.1% of all Democratic primary votes nationwide. Those Sanders supporters were self-motivated voters who got themselves to the polls and felt strongly enough about their issues come close to giving the nomination to Bernie. So close, in fact, that they can't help but wonder if maybe Bernie would have won the nomination had not the DNC been indistinguishable from the HRC campaign.

The Democratic National Convention takes place July 25-28. Sanders supporters heckle the proceedings at various points and accuse the organizers of attempting to marginalize them through control of the convention access and seating. Debbie Wasserman-Schultz resigns as DNC Chair at the end of the convention (but only after a call from President Obama). Her resignation confims what the DNC emails exposed.

After the convention, the story of how the DNC worked against the Sanders campaign and voters fades from the MSM.

(3) The General Election

Here are some numbers for a model of the election where some Bernie voters either decide not to vote or decide to vote for Trump. (Hat tip to Stefan for suggesting that actual vote totals be included and not just percentages.) The model focuses on just a few states that were swing states with close votes. The thing to remember is that in a situation where Trump wins by 100 votes, that effect can be created by just 50 Sanders voters flipping, creating -50 votes for HRC and +50 votes for Trump. The model shows how many Bernie voters it would take - either just staying home on election day or actively switching to Trump - to create the margin by which Trump actually won each state.

The result: HRC loses EC when 53,667 Bernie voters (2.8%) out of 1,901,016 Bernie voters in MI, WI and PA, decide to vote for Trump.

So my claim is that the election was decided when the HRC-DNC axis betrayed the grassroots political engagement that the Sanders campaign created. What motivated me to define the issue so clearly is all the post-election bleating by the MSM about how they need to try to understand "Trump's appeal" and how they "got it wrong". What they need to understand is Bernie's appeal, and how people who were motivated to vote for Bernie could switch to Trump who, as a person, is almost an anti-Bernie. Which means that there is a core set of underlying issues that made the two men the same choice for a large enough segment of voters to decide the election.

The HRC-DNC axis presumed ownership of the Democratic Party and felt they could do whatever they wanted to ensure the desired outcome at their convention. At that time I posted that HRC needed to pick Bernie as her running mate, which idea was seen as too extreme or impractical. I thought it was her only chance, and now that seems even more clear.


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1 Comment so far

  1. Jeff Watson on November 14, 2016 3:30 pm

    This is the real reason the Termagant lost the election. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GLG9g7BcjKs(Ignore the first 25 seconds)

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