Jan

4

It is interesting to consider the moves in the S&P after down years. I find 14 years out of the last 60 that were down with an average rise the next year of 9% as follows:

   year of decline   move next year
        1957                    35
        1960                    23
        1962                    20
        1966                    22
        1969                      0
        1970                   -10
       

        1973                   -30
       

        1975                    25
       

        1977                      1
        1981                    15
        1990                    25
        2000                   -20
       

        2001                   -14
       

        2002                    20
       

        2008                    20
     

average                      +8%

I like to do all % calculations in head so some errors will creep in.


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