I would posit that the Asian markets, and the emerging markets in particular have had a predictive and leading impact on the US stock market. They went down hard before our crash, and now are going up strong before the Dow and SPU close the year at all time highs. However, I ask a general question. Is there one market, anywhere in the world an any time in the 24 hour cycle that has a predictive and profitable impact on another, and if so how long will it be before the cycles change?

John Floyd writes: 

On a slightly more qualitative avenue I would consider the prevalence over the past decade plus to say the least of "bad economics leading to bad politics leading to bad economics loop"

The recent Portugal elections and ECB statements today are an upwelling of fertile information to consider in terms of Europe in the immediate future.

The extension could go to Asia as well where the capital outflow and reserve losses from China share some parallels with that of Russia in 1998.


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