I have noticed a discernable change in the last several dozen Uber rides I have taken across many distances and locales. For example: greater price variability for similar routes, more frequent surge pricing, drivers less familiar with the most direct route, errors in estimated pick up times, drivers quicker to cancel your pick up because you are not at the exact spot and time and therefore collect a penalty fee. Overall the experience and service is good and I continue to use but this is a significant shift from where it was.

Questions to ask: Is there somewhat of an S curve effect in what is happening at Uber? What does this say about other similar technologies? What happens if the competition begins to use the technology more, such as taxis? What does this say, if anything, about overall market valuations and expectations in the future for other market classes, for example the biotech index (NBI) which are imputing certain levels of future growth?

anonymous writes: 

Drivers are figuring out that the normal fares paid by Uber in non-surge times are not commensurate with time, cost of vehicle, maintenance on vehicle, risk of accident and injury, and dealing with drunk inconsiderate riders, so the supply of drivers is not meeting demand. So basic supply-demand economics is causing more surge pricing to encourage more supply of drivers willing to drive at the higher rate.


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