Feb

8

A Commenter writes:

Vic, this being a public forum you probably wont reply, but have you ever thought YOUR method is mumbo jumbo and you were just smart enough to stay your whole career on the right side of the drift, with humongous leverage? Think about it. Your junkyard-boeing analogy doesn't hold water. Soros way works. Munger way works. Icahn way works. Even Buffett way works. Time tested. To the $ billions. Yours didn't stand the test of time, not once, but multiple times and this is the most robust stat test. Maybe you were just lucky to skim enough OPM residuals to provide a comfortable life for your family, and more power to you, but otherwise to an outsider, this looks like a huge waste of one's abilities.

Victor Niederhoffer replies:

Yes, I often feel my methods are mumbo jumbo. And I am always trying to improve based on that supposition. I have had enough pitfalls and debacles so that if I didn't doubt my methods, I would be even more of a useless idiot than you think I am. My self skepticism is compounded by the fact that I am pretty much the founder of the field of using statistical interactions to predict markets, and my former employees who I have taught are legion, and use vast financial and human resources that dwarf me by many thousand fold in their extent and erudition. I try to learn from people like Soros and Munger and Icahn, most of whom I have worked for or studied in one way or another. What I learn from them is mainly that they are one with the idea that has the world in its grip, i.e. they profess a line of keeping man small while rising above the tide through clever use of the service and public attachment to the forces of agrarianism to deflect competition and attrition. Luck and the path has much to do with it also. My family and I are quite cognizant of your criticism, and are never hesitant to deflate my exuberance with sobering warnings and critiques such as yours. 


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