Apr

22

Hello Mr Sogi how ae you feeing will you be having some Kona coffee later today.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=I6jk0wuCyo0 profit is without honor in his own home.

I am sending out the winner of the Galton quote today. I have winners as follows: Gates Torrey, Ashton Tate, Peter J. Swan, Matthew Gasda, Zee, Henri Huws,Andy Aikon, Venkaksh, Miroslaw, John marris. If there is any other winners please send me your address. 

Apr

20

A transition day to 4200 but then 4 straight breaks of round number without interruptus with terrible backdrop of apologia and exculpation from all corners staring one below the belt.

Transition from major the Sogi level to a minor in the 60's.

I receive a call to intern for me. Mr. Shilopez was my last intern and the next thing he knew he was eating thanksgiving dinner with us. I talk a much better game than I play unfortunately.

Mr. sogi battling the waves in Japan down 900.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=fhJl4JFXbw0 hard to take Kona coffee with Nikkei down 900.

Phil Kerpin ( dare one mention ) asks why all the sudden half of medias overnight came out against outdoor masking.

https://unusualwhales.com/i_am_the_senate " one has to be kidding"

All things considered, it looks good from 4115 to me but I am often wrong.

The frog jumped out at 4110.50.

Apr

19

Jeffrey Watson writes:

I've been thinking a lot about the old physics demo on how metronomes will sync up. I'm wondering if there are any market lessons.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T58lGKREubo

Leo Jia writes

More explanations here: https://youtu.be/t-_VPRCtiUg

Apr

19

Just to clarify the contructals up to 3200 sp futures June are bull . One apologizes for the typos.

It's still possible to make a fortune in tech http://paulgraham.com/richnow.html?curator=MediaREDEF 

Apr

19

The more progressive it gets in the future the more bull it becomes up to 3400. However a look at political economists from Smith to Misses to Hayek to Mises to Ridley is sobering.

https://amazon.com/How-Innovation-Works-Flourishes-Freedom/dp/B07Y8R2GV8/ref=sr_1_1?dchild=1&keywords=how+innovation+works&qid=1618708847&sr=8-1a highly recommended. Informative book with respect to progressive spending versus the market. .the example if the 30 million test of the foregoing in 1940 where the long distance plane sponsored by the former group crashed is highly resonant.

As my tweets could be misinterpreted by the pessimists and the crisis mongers, please remember my request to retweet any thing you find worthy of communication rather than liking it et al 

Apr

19

Very useful interview with Andy Aiken on all things crypto.

studio.youtube.com/video/f07qX-2xIPE/edit very greenish day so far after long scan of green and yellow up days in SP.

Apr

16

studio.youtube.com/video/yqPeBzKLR9k/ed what happens when a streak ends? Lou Gehrig versus Pele, turn in Thursday at 520 for great interview with Andrew Aiken

Apr

14

This isn't cricket so far range of 10 ppts doesn't give top feeders any extra profits from forcing the weak out.. night eminis even less volatile and less profitable for strong.

He crossed the line of campers at Kinidergard last time. must say economy weak this time to be chosen for red team.

Anything to get more stimulus in tribute to those below the median.

Free associations —break from masters tournament via zoom, how dependent a and resentful are you, , you cant afford lobbyists, lawyer any service critics and subsidies for me, one down day, that was dirty trick against CNN manager,, truth serum with a sparrow.

Apr

13

Everything was up today. All the feedback loops are positive. the most bullish thing of all is that now the professional sports leagues and their followers in the big corps will have yet another reason to be one with the idea that has the world in its grip.

As Ridley says the leaders who show the most empathy and are against the most will win the McCartur award or even the Nobel peace award.

And the market's being up 10 days in a row, close toc lose, and 13 items open to close in a row, is quite bullish,4200 SP and of course 30000 Nikkei are in the sights and have the weather gage. and the reasons are exponentially increased by the violence of yesterday.

One demur for asking a favor. but– I have a lot of friends on this site built yup with mutual trust and I believe benefit over many year. but no matter what I tweet, I am losing followers. I believe it is because the algorithms mistakenly believe that I am not woke enough and worse yet I like baseball and the former captain of the Yale baseball team who's edging above the famous sharp golf player. For example when I tweeted that we should all celebrate the Market breaking thru 3100 in the face of tremendous obstacles. I received the greatest response ever for me over 12000 impressions. Yet I lost many subscribers that day. I don't believe it was the bears who gave up on me. Apparently I demurred to the words " stop it, stop it regarding a baseball refraction. Similarly when I allude toe he who must not be mentioned.

For example his suggestion that a traveler in the bush secrete a silver flask with a diamond in lest he be robbed and have no wherewithal l left ( but as Stigler says " beware that you don't get skinned alive in the search for more secreted valuables" 

In any case the favor is this kindly instead of impressioning my tweets or liking it, kindly retweet it. In that way I will counter balance the cascade of algorithmic losses of friend subscribers and will be able to continue tweeting with dignity. Thank you. 

Apr

12

Adventure is strictly probability to me. It rarely occurs as a surprise. I intentionally put myself into risky positions after calculating that beyond a reasonable doubt nothing can be anticipated but situations will crop up that I can survive. Before each outing, the odds of mishaps are analyzed, and for each downside the worst scenario. Sometimes it may be as minimal as leaving one’s comfort zone to injury or sickness, and through-near death or beyond. In five minutes, before buying a ticket or sticking out a thumb to the next escapade, I know exactly what I’m facing. This is tremendous relief. The adventure happens. It is examined and learned from. Probability itself is a beautiful adventure, guiding all avenues from business to sport and romance. I suggest starting with Probability for Dummies and progressing the tenets until the mind defaults to the most rational decisions.  

Apr

12

Adventure Probability interesting application of probably to his one field from Hobo Adventure is strictly (cont) https://tl.gd/n_1srlhfh.

A review of a travel book by he whose name may not be mentioned " do not profess to receive hints for a trip (cont) https://tl.gd/n_1srlhp3 

The top feeders in the ecosystem received a breath of fresh air from the Huang loss of 5 billion and it provided energy for the markets recent and unprecedented rise thru two round numbers. this is typical when a player is margined out bit. one should make a history of such.

Recently 2 companies whose culture was faith based have received considerable attention. Huan and Wework. One should make a study of companies whose culture is based in large part on faith and look at their sub performance. what is good source for faith based companies?

Predictive correlation of faith with subsequent performance seems mixed.

If Mr Bassett wished to be briefed on how to cross a river by holding on to a horses tail and other brilliances he should follow the art of -travel

Use number 35 for a hat. "if a traveler can swim pretty well it is a good idea to make a float when he wishes to cross a river and to lay his breat on it while his valuables are enclosed in a large turban on his head" from an ingenious gentleman whose name not mentioned.

Quote of day " I have observed that not the man who hopes when others despair , but the man who despairs when others hope is admired by a large class of persons as a sage" Jsmill quoted by Matt Ridley in his highly recommended book " the Rational Optimist" .

Apr

12

Proverb of day. Be careful of the opportunity that is knocking may in fact be defeat cloaked in the guise of victory.

Shout out to Lrene Morrison for resilient performance. 5o years ago she ran two companies select a sprint and American almond and did heroic jobs.. Alan millhone played in college checker tournament 50 years ago and is now fine player and president of American checker federation.

 

Apr

10

Zubin Al Genubi writes:

The all time usual rate is about 4% as I recall.

Jared Albert writes

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/working-paper/2020/eight-centuries-of-global-real-interest-rates-r-g-and-the-suprasecular-decline-1311-2018

The graphs are a ton of fun to flip through.

Apr

10

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/working-paper/2020/eight-centuries-of-global-real-interest-rates-r-g-and-the-suprasecular-decline-1311-2018
The graphs are a ton of fun to flip through.
On Thursday, April 8, 2021, 06:54:39 PM EDT, Zubin Al Genubi <zubin.al.genubi@gmail.com> wrote:
The all time usual rate is about 4% as I recall.

Apr

10

Headquarters, Army of Northern Virginia, 10th April 1865.
General Order
No. 9
After four years of arduous service marked by unsurpassed courage and fortitude, the Army of Northern Virginia has been compelled to yield to overwhelming numbers and resources.
I need not tell the survivors of so many hard fought battles, who have remained steadfast to the last, that I have consented to the result from no distrust of them.
But feeling that valour and devotion could accomplish nothing that could compensate for the loss that must have attended the continuance of the contest, I have determined to avoid the useless sacrifice of those whose past services have endeared them to their countrymen.
By the terms of the agreement, officers and men can return to their homes and remain until exchanged. You will take with you the satisfaction that proceeds from the consciousness of duty faithfully performed, and I earnestly pray that a merciful God will extend to you his blessing and protection.
With an unceasing admiration of your constancy and devotion to your Country, and a grateful remembrance of your kind and generous consideration for myself, I bid you an affectionate farewell.
— R. E. Lee, General, General Order No. 9[

Apr

10

James Michener

April 10, 2021 | Leave a Comment

James Michener is the most prolific producer of tomes on my passion of travel. His best is the nearly forgotten 'The Drifters' dealing with what I have lectured to outfitting stores that the world is an anthill of travelers under backpacks who, because their trails cross frequently around the globe, meet each other continually. One sees the same person in South Africa that he saw in Japan. This would seem mathematically impossible without the idea of large numbers, and is proven true. Michener's autobiography 'The World is my Home' is also worth reading. I am not fond of the rest of his works, novels, due to excessive dialogue; however, I read them after traveling to the specific regions which is a lot of books having visited 105 countries and makes fun reading. 
The Drifters      https://www.amazon.com/Drifters-Novel-James-Michener-ebook/dp/B00H6JHMHM/ref=sr_1_1?dchild=1&keywords=the+drifters+michener&qid=1617982988&sr=8-1

'The World is My Home'   https://www.amazon.com/World-My-Home-Memoir-ebook/dp/B00H6JHOX4/ref=sr_1_1?dchild=1&keywords=the+world+is+my+home+michener&qid=1617983151&sr=8-1

Apr

10

An interesting recommendation from the Hobo Michener is the most prolific producer of tomes on my passion of (cont) https://tl.gd/n_1srlffc

Apr

8

The signs of gentrification at Slab City are everywhere. The first to pop out at the hot spring are tattoos. When I moved here seven years ago, you could judge a person by his cover when his tattoos jumped at you like Ray Bradberry’s ‘Illustrated Man’ where each represented an event in a person’s life. Most of them were of prison art, martial arts, and road tales. Now during gentrification, they represent the dreams of newcomers. Today a senior with an hourglass figure inquired of mine. I described the mouse with a smile and teardrop tells of the pathos of the road; the tarantula crawled on me from a sidewalk in Brazil; and the marijuana leaf out the pen of a Hong Kong artist who didn’t have maple in his vocabulary. ‘That completes the set of fauna, flora and insect,’ I explained expecting a tumble in the weeds until she sniffed, swam off, and had judged me less than a he-man. 

Gentrification has altered Berkeley, Venice, Brooklyn and Aspen but nothing like the Slabs in the past year.  I miss the old days when spartan conditions brought out that nature in the residents. When I moved here seven years ago there were no generators, few solar, next-to-no cash, which meant no booze, no hostel or Airbnb, and the green barter was marijuana. There were no cars except my rental used to chase the bad guys who robbed my property across the bombing to the Slabs where I settled because there was no place else to go. Everyone was thirsty and looked like stick figures. 

The cause of gentrification is different from anywhere else – pandemic unemployment assistance. For one year nearly every resident in the outlaw resort has gone from penniless to become unemployed in a manner that was affected by the virus. Some reported they mow concrete Slabs from WWII that the tourists no longer visit, and only recently has the county’s biggest roadside attraction Salvation Mountain started admitting tourist with masks. Today there is $3 million and its products floating around the Slabs with a population quadrupled by COVID refugees from all corners of the nation. The reason is the one-square mile town via the internet is advertised as sneeze-free and rent-free. 

It is disease free but the signals of gentrification are like Burma-Shave. 

 

 

 

Signs aside, gentrification is a process of neighborhood change in a historically disinvested area due to a boon or new higher-income residents moving in. Most gentrified towns hang on and have led to the nation’s overall ‘back-to-the-city’ trend. But one warm summer and the halt of pandemic assistance will restore our historic conditions. The best the world offers is change and it’s a rare privilege to live here at this time.  

Apr

8

Patrick Boyle  writes:

The article states: "The offer from Washington reflects Biden’s broader goal of ending what officials have described as a race-to-the-bottom on global taxation that has deprived governments of revenue needed to fund basic services and investments." 

I was surprised to see that governments are suffering this deprivation and wondered what percentage of GDP is collected by various governments worldwide.  It would appear that the US Government collects 27.1% of GDP as taxes while spending 38.1% of GDP.  Singapore seems to get by with 14.1% of GDP in taxes.

Here is the full list on wikipedia:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_tax_revenue_to_GDP_ratio

Stefan Jovanovich  writes

As a economic denominator GDP has always troubled me since it pretends that there is an absolute equivalence between the Department of Education's paying for further studies of whole word instruction and parents' struggles to show their children that understanding the American language depends on recognizing the sounds of syllables and using the alphabet to write and read the notations of those sounds.  

In this particular example, the fiction of GDP is even worse: what the Federal Government spends on the 21st century's answer to phrenology counts as output because it is paid for in dollars.  What the parents do gets no accounting at all.

Assessing American public spending right now is tricky because this is the first time in our history as a nation that we have done what William James wanted and found a moral equivalence of war without the spending on arms and destruction.  There have been no net deaths in Trump's war against Covid; measured against the mortality rates for an average flu year, the casualty rate has been negative.  Instead of incurring debt to build ships, planes and other military assets that will be pure waste, that, unlike the capital equipment used in the "private" sector will have no residual value other than as scrap, this Federal war has spent it's money on direct transfers to people's bank accounts,  raises for hospital employees, and what has been effectively a continuation of the Census' part-time employment for official counting.  

There has been no wartime inflation because the largest part of the "spending" has been no spending at all but simply a non-recourse loan from the government to taxpayers that they have chosen to save.  

This really is different this time.

 

Patrick Boyle  writes:

I frequently see an argument from the left where any tax reduction is described as a government giveaway to the rich.  It is based on the idea that 100% of income belongs to the government and if you get to keep any at all is a gift.

It is one thing when a government increases taxes for their own benefit, but I don't think I can think of another example of a government encouraging other nations to tax its companies.  In fact trade wars are often fought over issues like this.  It is hard to view such a push from the new administration as anything other than a hatred of wealth generation.

Stefan Jovanovich  writes

f PB could offer a specific example of a "trade war" that became an actual war - one where the politicians spend money without limit and have their armies and navies work to kill people, it would help.  I looked through the list of conflicts for the past four centuries and I could not find one that was fought over tax rates and currency exchange terms.  As for how much money the U.S. government can tax, there is no limit.  The Constitution gave Congress total authority with the only limit being that direct taxes had to be apportioned by population among the states.   That was eliminated by the 16th amendment.

Apr

8

The Archi Huang loss to credit Suisse and Nomura calls into review the famous essay by the great man of the 19th century " the efficacy of Prayer:" Mr. Huang liked to deal with those wearing cross necklaces and when a stock went up he often said " it was blessed by the Good one. On the efficacy of prayer. after careful study of the lives of missionaries and those most prayer for and the rates on annuities for the prayerful, the author concludes " it seems to me clear that all belief in the efficacy of prayer must be yielded:"

"The evidence I have been able to collect ( and it is extensive in 10 fields) bears wholly and solely in the direction( of inefficacy) and in the face of it the onus probandi must henceforth lie on the other side.

What are the chances that the SP will hit rise above 4100 before falling below 4050? a statistically study seems appropriate . of the last 9 where the SP reached a new high in the 80's, eight of them sailed on the hundred before succumbing to the 50"s.( thanks to Susan)

Susan for 45 years has studiously assisted in studies like this and now that she has 1 grand children and counting it is good to see she still can organize and memorialize a study in the spirit of the great quantifier of the 19th century. 

Apr

7

https://studio.youtube.com/video/NXCRJMETC1o/edit invasion of the body snatchers, a very progressive and therefore bull day forthcoming, odds of presidential election changing against former prez. a series of maxs interruptus.

Proverbs from two great men one from the 19th century,1 from the 20th century. the rational optimist.

Mr. tiger where have you been? I've missed you. what do you think about the quintessential American game being politicized. Larry and I would have felt this very bearish. he was " doc Greenspans " thesis adviser and gave me the skinny on its falsity.

The operatives get out of their love hotels and note the humiliations of the Nikkei below 3000 while the SP breaches 4000 with ease on its way to 5000.

To the 10 people who won the search for the great mans quote from 1883 , please bear with me as it will take a week or two to send your prize as I am just a individual trader with no back up without much mobility but as Art Bisguier liked to say " the Hindhu will do.

What he can do>> I believe this was a reference to the great Indian player who beat Capablanca without so much as considering castling as it was not in their rules.

Nobody asked me but there is something loathsome about the official saying " stop it, stop it" in response to legit query. also interesting is the officials apparent failure to remember his treasury secretary's name.

Nobody asked me but there is something out of kilter with a high official trying to increase corporate service rates over the world .

What's the name of Chinese house of rep who always knows the minutes before hand and makes big bet with exotics and where is she now.

Judy chu always seems to have skinny on what's happening with government announce. they used to follow fed open market board to the men's room before open market announcements. some one should put an hour guard around Judy chu before such announcements as coming 200 pm. One guesses she's long until close.

Quote of day " life 'in general may be looked upon as a republic where the individuals ae for the most part unconscious that while they are working for themselves they are also working for the greater good.

Apr

7

Practical booklet for children and parents - perhaps even some traders?
From Ray Gottlieb (retired eye doctor) - on learning, memory, imagination, attention, vision using the trampoline…..
As Goethe once said.   Theory is all grey, whereas life (and nature) is so colorful.
So are mkts and birds etc we would say..

Apr

6

The new year 2021 has been a time of reflections in Slab City. Spooky inexplicable reflections. I examine the mysterious to clarify and can shed some light on why six people independently told me in the past three months that they thought they were losing their minds. 

 

A general view is the men-like mirages have been popping out of the ground or sitting in trees and smiling down at like Cheshire Cats. These are not ghostly but shimmering mirages appearing between sunrise and sunset. All of the sightings have been in South Slabs just south of the Library to the orchard power line in the vicinity where I live. 

 

Of course, I went looking for them and, as warned by most, ‘You will not see them unless they want to be seen.’ The closest I have come to a personal encounter was one sunset as a large figure rose off the ground where I had just looked and there was none. He stood and shrugged a net-like cover off his shoulders, stared through me, and walked in a military manner down the canal road. 

 

The spottings by others have been eerier still. Each describes them as starting at dusk, sitting or standing holding a bush, and nearly immobile moving a fraction-of-an-inch at a time through the night. They often return every other evening or weekly. Sometimes single, usually a pair, and often 3-4 of the visitors. Their favorite spots are in the crooks of trees or sitting on stumps. 

 

In two cases the residents’ dogs have gone up to sniff the phantoms and barked, each time to recoil as if struck by a stun or ultrasound gun. One man shot a specter with his pellet rifle and found blood on the limb the following dawn. They don’t leave footprints because on close examination wear a cloth booty over their shoes. 

  

The first person in January to tell me about the desert reflections claimed his dog barked at something in a tree, but was propelled backward. The owner walked to the tree where the thing peered down at him but could see it only as an outline of a flickering man. ‘I see you,’ he yelled from immediately below its feet. ‘Get the hell out of here.’ He returned to a fitful sleep in his truck bed, and on awakening an hour later, walked to the tree again. ‘You are trespassing, I feel threatened, and believe you may harm my dog.’ The climber didn’t respond, so he went to his truck, raised a pellet rifle, and shot it in the leg, as evidenced by the blood the next morning.  

 

The apparitions returned to his camp every few nights through the first two months of this year. They were single, or one sunset he spotted five trudging ten steps away across his camp to a bluff. He watched through his rifle scope, where suddenly there was a whir and they disappeared. A murmur like an electric motor started and trailed toward the canal. In a few minutes in more light, he walked over and saw vehicle tracks where there had been none before. ‘I think their transportation lowered some kind of screen to hide it and them as they got in, and drove off.’ 

 

The spotting have all been in open desert with creosote bushes, palo verde, cactus, and their favorite haunt ironwoods. The next person I talked a half-mile south of me is an ex-marine who is said to be the toughest man in Slab City. He nonetheless admitted, ‘Something stood at dusk at the entrance to my driveway. I walked up in a zigzag because it kept disappearing and reappearing in the same place. It shimmered like heat off the desert floor around the shape of a man only it was chilly out. I got 8’ away and yelled, ‘I see you, dumbass. Don’t think I’m crazy.’ The man stared back calmly. ‘I didn’t touch it because either I was mad or it was military and I didn’t like how either panned out.’ He exhaled a sigh as I related that others had similar sightings. ‘Thank you,’ he replied. ‘I didn’t think I was going crazy but who knows the limits of PTS. I cross-dress to bring out my feminine side, and adjusted my bra and left him standing in the middle of my driveway.’  

 

Another ex-marine camped on Walmart Wash explained that his two dogs ran barking up to something that wasn’t there in the night. He got out of his tent and approached as the dogs were suddenly invisibly propelled backward. ‘The single figure was like a hologram but it wasn’t. It was easiest to see in the pitch black. When I shined a flashlight it cut it in half. I stepped forward and shouted, ‘‘I don’t know if I’m hallucinating you or not, but why are you here?’ When it didn’t answer I ran away with the dogs to the canal. I’ve faced bullets and fists, but I wasn’t trained to fight ghosts.’ 

 

The Belle of Slab City and her boyfriend took it with more equanimity. They have been living in an abandoned trailer near the shoe tree, sprouting old tennies and oxfords where no fruit grows. She revealed without hesitation, ‘Something has been visiting our camp regularly but it’s not so serious. What I don’t like is it doesn’t talk back.’ ‘And,’ chimed her boyfriend, ‘It doesn’t laugh at my jokes.’ ‘Neither do I,’ she quipped. ‘It began getting on our nerves when we returned late at night and found things moved around and it sitting on a stump in the front yard. I blamed him’ … ‘And she blamed me’ … ‘But we knew they had done it.’ Each described the 1-3 spooks at a time for a total of a dozen visits as like human mirages, immobile, and nonreactive. He theorized, ‘I think they’re from Camp Billy Machen military base down the road and training, or trying out new equipment. We learned to live with them.’   

  

Another man described the same sort of encounter. ‘It was like a projection standing holding the branch of a Creosote. I told it to leave. It was nonresponsive. So at dawn I looked again through binoculars from 20’ and could see a human mirage that was the same in appearance as the background where it stood, depending on the angle I viewed it from. I brandished a pistol but didn’t fire.’ A few minutes later when he looked, ‘A solid man in a black T-shirt, mid-forties, stood where it had been. I walked up and said, ‘I don’t know who you and your friends are, but I don’t like you.‘’ The intruder stared silently, shook his finger in the camper’s face, and wheeled away.    

 

I talked to the Mayor of Slab City who reported from the brink of Walmart Wash, ‘I was driving on Canal Road when two figures that looked like they came out of the ground rose up covered with what looked like dead leaves and moss. But there are no leaves in the desert. I thought they might be my passed-father and one of his buddies come back to haunt me, so I sped home and grabbed a bible.’ 

 

I thought back to my own camp under a spreading palo verde tree in the target spook area where someone one night placed a Teddy bear on a tire next to where I slept on the ground. The next morning I was looking in the eyes of a cross-eyed bear. The following morning the bear’s eyes were uncrossed. Another sunrise and it had shifted so it was gazing over its shoulder at me. I thought, At least whoever the visitor is has a sense of humor and none of harm. 

 

Since the reflections are invisible I searched the internet. There you may see the military has invented tactical clothing that reflects ambient light to make the wearer appear as his surroundings. It is called the albedo effect and one may try to see pictures of it online.  

 

Who are they?  The mayor thinks the living dead. The Belle believes the DARPA who guard the adjacent military base. The ex-soldiers are sure they’re Marines or Navy Seals. I think they are independent mercenaries working in conjunction with Camp Billy Machen. In any case, Slab City may rest assured they are being surveyed by flesh-and-blood. 

Apr

6

Quote of day " the conditions that direct the order of the whole of the living world around us are marked by their persistence in improving the birthright of successive generations " they determine at much cost of individual comfort that each plant and animal shall on.

The general average be endowed at its birth with more suitable individual faculties than those of its representative in the preceding generation" a great man's quote and along with Ridley's idea and its extension the real reason for the 50000 fold a century drift.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=F7xjzAn510s influence of baseball, the day's progressive news, a continuous rise of 150 points et al .

A prize of signed copy of education of a speculator will be given to the first 10 individuals who can finish the next sentence of the optimistic quote of the great man . send to vniederhoffer@gmail.com.

Thank the good one that the odds on the Governor are catching up to the former Prez. Let us hope that a verdictive bitter critique is not forthcoming.

There have been some good detective work on the great man's quote.// Mr. Ze suggests that I give his regards to Mr. Sogi. what are the chances that Mr. Sogi will have to disgorge his cup of Kona today? 

The winners so far are Aiken, Venkatech, Howe, Owen. Ashton, swan, Pitt, Martin, two more you can post here if you couldn't get thru. but don't put any names in it, as one doesn't want to lose any more subscriber friends.

Had a dream based in Mill valley, cal.. I was not a financial adviser but a Dr. The streets outside were empty, for sale signs were up all over. no one was washing windows. and my patients kept coming in with a strange malady. their fathers, kids didn't seem to be the sane anymore.

Mr. Ze was a winner too. 

wsj.com/articles/vaccine-passports-prolong-lockdowns-11617726629?mod=hp_opin_pos_2 how did Harvard let this one get out the door (cont) https://tl.gd/n_1srlbrk.

The world traveler and man of many talents shares what's happening in slab city https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#inbox/FMfcgxwLtQNngcbMLNTsNDZljgWpcPTn (cont) https://tl.gd/n_1srlbs3 

The man of many talents and the world traveler once used the match marking sites of his day. He mentioned (cont) https://tl.gd/n_1srlbs7 .

Proverb of day" speaking of defeat: after a couple of losses:: the poorest draw looks like a brilliancy: stick in there ( a very appropriate one for bears who were confronted by a 170 point continuous SP rise and be visited with a 2 point decline today. 

Apr

5

Amazon Travel

April 5, 2021 | Leave a Comment

The best means of travel in the Amazon is to hitch rides on boats. The waterways of Peru, Ecuador and Brazil are highways leading from the largest interstates to the narrowest jungle lanes. When the stream gets too narrow for canoes I turn around and go back to the interstate. 

The best way of land travel has been to the hike the jungle paths from village to village hiring local guides at each to get me to the next. The key is to get the name of the previous guide as a recommendation down the line.  

One covers hundreds or thousands of miles of jungle in either the water or land method with replete adventures. Meals and accommodation are not a problem for there is competition to invite the first gringo the town has seen in for food or a bed.  

There are no Ugly Americans in the Amazon.  

Apr

5

Today I am reminded of the other bank one keeps through life in his mental wallet. it is stacked with experiences that yield high dividends. Investing in experiences is more fun than money, and managing them more diverse. I was just contacted from South America by a man with three masters and one PhD who collects bugs for a living. I hooked him twenty years ago after being abandoned by a nervous guide to the Peruvian Mayoruna ‘Cat People’ who one generation earlier ate each other. They didn’t invite me to dinner, and I survived to relate the story in an investment manner that quickly spread through Iquitos at the headwaters of the Amazon. Iquitos has some heavy hitter ex-patriots whose ears I wanted. I knew the two handfuls of them comingled and with that managed the story as follows. I told being held by the cannibals to one person, then I told a tale from the rails to another, of a gorilla faceoff to another, a rip tide near-death to one more … and a total of ten different stories invested in as many people. The grapevine rattled and two days later I began getting invitations to dinner with prominent people that led to my settling in Peru for a year. It’s not only having experiences in your brain bank but how you spend the withdrawals that lead to success.   


Apr

5

Vix Part 2

April 5, 2021 | Leave a Comment

Michael Cook writes:

I know we tend to go into a stock market bullish period next week but I just got a Vix buy signal which generates from recent price behaviour of Vix index. Historically if it is going to work, (it doesn't always of course, what does?) it tends to start the move within a couple of bars.

Anonymous  writes

what is the green line? Also what is the time frame on each candle is it in the next day or 2 or next week or next month?

Michael Cook writes:

Daily bars, dark green signals utilize a 44 bar look back (so 2 months), light green are a 22 bar look back. 

Anoymous writes:

Ok what does the green signal line mean. Is it an indicator if so what. How are you supposed to be reading it pls.

Michael Cook writes:

This came about from [what I thought of as] a nice little bit of research by Andrew Thrasher who won the 2017 Charles Dow Award for his paper forecasting a volatility tsunami. https://cmtassociation.org/association/awards/charles-h-dow-award/

The two indicators are just two ways I mapped of looking at the dispersion of Vix.

In response to Gary's point, it isnt really that brave. It gets 1/4% to 1/2% of risk and I always have the expectation that at least half trades hit max loss or, if long options, expire at nil anyway!

Apr

5

Vix

April 5, 2021 | Leave a Comment

Anonymous writes:

Do you mind sharing what's needed to be read inferred in your svxy chart  for beginners.

Gary Phillips writes

nothing particularly esoteric here, other than the dotted yellow line is a level that has shown support in the past, and old support may become new resistance. in terms of constructal law it is an area that has evolved over time to allow greater access to the currents that flow through it.

Duncan Coker writes:

Feb of 2018 was quite a move for SVXY, down 90%.  SVXY is really a proxy for selling the term structure of VIX which is almost always in contango.(ie sell the distance month, cover after a month, rinse and repeat).  Except when the spot and front month explode upward and go into backwardation.  I did a study a while back showing backwardation of futures term structure is very bullish for SP500, but not that many trades.

Apr

5

The best person to catch a thief is another thief because he or she knows how thieves think in Slab City. But there’s a twist here. Naked at the hot spring today she revealed all. 

‘I turned honest here three years ago because the pickings are so easy. Now I just rob thieves and people who deserve to be robbed.’ 

The practice of setting a thief to catch another is more popular than thought. The government hires a stockbroker convicted of fraudulent activities to entrap the stockbroker they were investigating for fraud. In the Slabs, where the only stock sold is in stolen articles, you may order them by cell and delivered if you know the right numbers. If they aren’t in stock, they soon are. One gentleman here arrested for hacking by the FBI went to work for them. The Imperial County, CA sheriff’s department is forever tantalizing residents they collar to snitch for them. Few do, however, there are at least eight government informants on early release from prison who have turned state evidence. 

Yet the girl at the hot spring is one step ahead of the rest. She could not be persuaded to work for the police and, instead after going straight, now steals items from camps. In a couple days she returns to the camp and offers to track and recover the goods. ‘It takes a thief to catch a thief,’ she tells them. She returns the things and is given a cash reward that she never asks for. 

 

‘So this isn’t illegal after all.’  

Apr

5

Some numbers 60 million bird watchers in America, 5 millions members of book clubs– what other number of Bourgleois virtues can you dig up?

Apparently 20- 25 million anticipants each of baseball , basketball, and football. 

Apr

5

Play Ball

April 5, 2021 | Leave a Comment

Since we are all in the predictions market, any early season baseball
prognostications?  Rockies were able to host 21k fans yesterday and win the
opener, and driving around town seeing high school ball in action was a fine
sight.

Apr

5

https://amazon.com/Bourgeois-Virtues-Ethics-Age-Commerce/dp/B01NBJOANS/ref=sr_1_1?dchild=1&keywords=bourgeois+virtues&qid=1617546179&sr=8-1 another bourgeois virtue being tarnished or destroyed by elites, big corps, et al

https://www.amazon.com/Bourgeois-Virtues-Ethics-Age-Commerce/dp/B01NBJOANS/ref=sr_1_1?dchild=1&keywords=bourgeois+virtues&qid=1617546179&sr=8-1 

Birdwatching, square dancing, , chess, shell collecting, baseball.. national pastimes what ordinary people do. how will it affect the markets? barbershop, square dancing, birdwatching, a visit to their national conventions– or halls of fame, frequently attended by 25000 or more gives one confidence in the strength of the common person. how will politics, infringe on baseball, the former nat pastime.

Apr

5

Homeostasis and contructal having been achieved, the 4030's seem high.

His is the worst decision baseball has made since the [1994] strike," Travis wrote. "You need an ID to pick up tickets to attend a baseball game. Or to get a beer inside once you’re there. But MLB is moving the all star game because you need an ID to vote? This is pure insanity." 

Dr Cattle says he doesn't think anyone would consider him a scare monger. One would ask him if he has ever sad anything that a reasonable person would not think would have the effect of making the progressive case more rewarding and the other side more costly. 

Excellent books recommended from Marginal Analysis 

https://econjwatch.org/articles/what-21st-century-works-will-merit-a-close-reading-in-2050-second-tranche-of-responses 

Apr

2

… Was a nice turn of phrase by the Chair and Collab in Practical Speculation. Remembering the greatest permabear of all time, Alan Abelson, and his modern fellow travelers like the personage who predicted doom and gloom at a Junto in 2013 until interrupted by the Chair, how fitting that the S&P 500 topped 4000 on April Fool's Day.

Apr

2

Proverb of day. Wiswell. " weakness of character are normally shown in a game of chess" Gary Kasparov. " weakness of character are normally chown in a game of checkers" Wiswell. " weakness of character are normally shown in the game of markets " victor

SP at 3983 perilously close to 4000. what we need is service rates raised for corps and individuals ," office of Handicapper General.

Plus sa change, plus cest la meme chose "

https://www.saturdayeveningpost.com/2018/11/the-history-of-stealing-elections/ 

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