Mar

31

Query

March 31, 2021 | Leave a Comment

Victor Niederhoffer  writes:

To what extent were major discoveries in pharmacy like Fleming on penicillin profit  making actives.

Henry Gifford writes

Fleming I heard wanted the world to enjoy and benefit from his discovery, thus he didn't patent it, thus nobody spent the money to get it tested and approved, thus it was another 10+ years until it was widely available. I don't know who footed the bill for his lab or his salary.

Much work on diseases has been done by various military organizations, as "casualties" (solders becoming unavailable to fight) in-theater are caused more by disease than enemy action in many wars. I hear the US Army reportedly cured yellow fever and maybe other things.

Stefan Jovanovich writes:

I think the discovery itself is often not profit motivated. Flemming: "One sometimes finds, what one is not looking for." I suppose one then needs to create an environment whereby one can not look for what one is looking for. Variously, pharma companies have tried it, given up on it, outsourced, and required it, depending upon their shareholders patience for R&D. Perhaps SPACs are the perfect vehicle as they are blind capital? There is an argument that RNA based medicine is going to be more targeted and solution oriented and therefore might fit the capitalist mould better.

Today PFE announced its vaccine is 100% effective on 12-15 year olds and should be distributed amongst that population. Is the justification for vaccinating that group that it will reduce transmission and therefore protect the old? Wouldn't it be better to deploy any injection to vulnerable groups? 12m kids is 15% of 70m seniors. Amid a pandemic, what historical parallel is there for a vaccine being given to one subpopulation (for whom the disease has minimal effect) in order to protect another (the old)? And what about the fact that giving acquired immunity to the young might reduce their innate immune response if there is an evolved variant of the virus (or is this not a possibility)?

Mar

31

Snake Boots

March 31, 2021 | Leave a Comment

I've struggled with snake boots for years. The rattlers are coming out in Slab City so it's time to put on the thinking cap. I've used for snake boots stovepipes like the tin woodsman that proved to be too heavy. While brassing the bombing range on foot I've wrapped coils of detonation wire (found on the range) from ankles-to-knees to look like Magneto. When walking the adjacent orchards i wear bib overalls and tie the cuffs filling the legs with oranges and lemons for a fresh scent if bitten. One year I made leggins of duct tape and ShoeGoo. Each of these methods has had its drawbacks. This year I've tailored leggins of recycled milk jugs that deflect needles, nails, and assumedly fangs. I've been within striking distance of about 200 western diamondbacks and sidewinders in my spell in the desert, and finally have stumbled on the perfect combination. 

Mar

31

Victor Niederhoffer  writes:

How many of the great inventions were made for profit  rather than government sponsored or the common good.    

Peter writes:

If war is government sponsored great inventions (in some cases for profit as well) - I believe you will cover most of the great advances in medicine, aerospace, computers, etc…add the Cold War space race and most of the items in my kitchen can be added to the invention list.

Stefan Jovanovich writes:

The grand achievement of the American integrated freight system - now the world's logistical model - was almost entirely a product of the mass stupidity we call the Civil War.

James Lackey writes:

Mr Stephan,

You've got to admit that pure speculation in rail paper traded in NYC was important.

Victor Niederhoffer  writes:

lets do some more justice to the influence of profits making on invention. I've only listed the ones where great industries were formed and there were patent fights. Newcomen– steam engine, John kay– flying shuttle,  Hargreaves– spinning jenny, James watt steam engine, Cartwright –power loom, Whitney– cotton gin and interchangeable parts, Trevithick road steam locomotive, Stephenson–railways. Isambard Kingdom Brunel - revolvers, colt, brunel steam ship, singer, home sewing machine, Bessemer steel processing, more telegraph, Edison lightbulb Benz internal combustion engine.

Mar

31

studio.youtube.com/video/c83zprvYH8o/edit the market drifting around one time hits, credit Suisse, serial correlation of employment.

Handicapper General on the ball, finally sets all time high in conjunction with service increases. all we need is to sustain his is for Fangs, sage, Palindrome to cheer for even higher service rates without that, regularities are bear from here.

A very progressive day with stocks according at an all time high, instead of unmentionably subjects lets have some wisdom from the great adventure traveler Keely 12:53 PM (5 (cont) https://tl.gd/n_1srl1le 

Mar

31

Proverb of day from Thom Weisel– every defeat not checked today will haunt you by future defeats tomorrow.. defeats that are corrected are transformed into victories.

It was a Harrison Bergerac day with the handicapper general playing an all court game : the teachers in San Diego are teaching the migrants in school to not regulate students– the successful companies are in his sites for cancelation of their patents, and for defending themselves ( in the case of amazon) The General has in his sites the growth companies. and he refuses to hit 4000 sp until the sage calls for more service revenues compared to his secretary.

Mar

31

Xclnt article in Sunday NY times " the house always wins" bet 365 - how does vig compare? in game betting — when will it come to our markets.? what are chances that the sogi will be hit 3 times in next 10 minutes? what chances that sage will call for -before 1100 pm bet 365 limits amount that winners can bet same as robin hood on game stop . polymorphism, coefficient of relatedness.

Could not be a more progressive day and thus more bull. 

Mar

30

Jeffrey Watson  writes:

I found the pdf copy of one of my favorite books of all time, A History

of Interest Rates, by. Sydney Homer and Richard Sylla. I found it a

compelling read in the 80's when it first was published, and still find

it compelling today, in 2021. If one is interested in history, money,

exchange, banking, markets, interest rates, then one might find this

book to offer great value and a meal of a lifetime. It certainly gives

one pause and that there is nothing really new, it's all been done before.

http://vnn1.online.fr/Cafeteria/Financial_Accounting_Banking/

A.History.of.Interest.Rates.Wiley.Finance.Series.4th.Ed.eBook-YYePG.pdf

George Zachar writes:

It's a must-have.

I keep a copy at my office, and a copy at home.

Mar

30

Maybe that resonates w you, too,
Savvy traders are good in paying attention how they spend their attention on, vs inexperienced traders (same most ordinary folks) who often get bamboozled by the media, the drama outside and so on.
In the movie Meriln,  the protagonist kept chasing the tail of Queen Mab - but eventually he realized that Queen Mab didn't have the power she proclaimed.    Right now, the wokes are a bit like emotional vampires- sorry for lack of better words- looking four pps attention and the joke is always on us - in trading and life.

Mar

30

Proverb of day "exercising the right of occasional suppression and slight modification, it is truly absurd to see how plastic a limited number of observations become ,in the hands of men with preconceived ideas. quoted by Stigler in The Seven Pillars of Statistical wisdom.

The previous quote is by the namesake of Stigler's hero and my first daughter . it is applicable to most of the mumbo jumbo that is encapped by charting and other coincidences.

Hint : for even mentioning his name as the father of multivariate analysis stretcom fired me and Laurel 20 years ago.  

Mar

28

I'm a collector: Anything that abounds, may be classified, and illuminates I gather This is how i found the most unique dated railroad nails for my collection on the Burma-Siam railroad while traveling through southeast Asia. I spotted the nails as the train sided in the jungle, deboarded at the next town, bought a hammer, and walked the line for an hour pulling nails. The dates on the heads indicate the year the ties were laid, in order to know when to replace them every 20 years or so. They hadn't been replaced in Malaysia since the POW's laid them in the early 1940s. Happy with a pocket of jangling representatives from the 'death railroad', I caught the next train south to Singapore nose deep in my other passion of Louis L'Amour books. 
I generally eschew well-written books for their secondary characteristic of shallowness. However, The Railway Man by a POW who could have pound the nails I pried is a solid exception. Somehow, the author is eloquent in describing his childhood passion of railroads and adult torture on the Burma-Siam railway. 
https://www.amazon.com/Railway-Man-Brutality-Forgiveness-Tie/dp/039334407X/ref=sr_1_1?dchild=1&keywords=the+railway+man&qid=1616947751&sr=8-1

Mar

28

The garden of forking paths: Why multiple comparisons can be a
problem, even when there is no “fishing expedition” or “p-hacking” and
the research hypothesis was posited ahead of time
 Andrew Gelman† and Eric Loken‡ 14 Nov 2013

Abstract
Researcher degrees of freedom can lead to a multiple comparisons
problem, even in settings where researchers perform only a single
analysis on their data. The problem is there can be a large number of
potential comparisons when the details of data analysis are highly
contingent on data, without the researcher having to perform any
conscious procedure of fishing or examining multiple p-values. We
discuss in the context of several examples of published papers where
data-analysis decisions were theoretically-motivated based on previous
literature, but where the details of data selection and analysis were
not pre-specified and, as a result, were contingent on data.

http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/unpublished/forking.pdf

Mar

28

Susan Niederhoffer writes:

https://youtu.be/2anJ8qHGuC4

Victor Niederhoffer writes:

How many of  this typical spec party enjoyed this opus from the greatest piano player of our generation.

Mar

28

Daniel Grossman writes:

As a major user of Vanguard brokerage for many years, I find their newly-introduced Buy/Sell Page (for entering trades) clumsy, slow and inefficient — what computer programmers might refer to as kludgy or klutzy.

Talking to the person at Vanguard running the project has convinced me that the new Buy/Sell Page has not been sensibly designed or tested, but that it is an unstoppable freight train rolling down the track to Vanguard's thirty million customers and Vanguard has no interest in reconsideration or change of any significant aspect.

Having completely failed on my own, I wonder if a group of significant Vanguard brokerage users would have more influence, for example by writing a joint letter to Vanguard's CEO Tim Buckley or by promoting a media story on the faulty Buy/Sell page (also referred to as the "ticket" or, perhaps in general, the trading platform).

If any Speclister has interest in comparing notes on this, please contact me offline at 561-278-5646 or dvgman@gmail.com

Bud Conrad writes:

I have used both Fidelity and Vanguard for years. I have been shocked by Vanguard's lack of sophistication on many fronts, like not charging me for cost for borrowing a stock to short, and not fully understanding some risks in shorting. Their support is weak in aids for trading and research on individual stocks. They don't allow a full complex of financial trading, outside of mutual funds and stocks. No futures, currencies. I've seen them offer more leverage on margin shorts than competition, which would seem attractive. In the early days you could only trade mutual funds, unless you opened up another separate account that they called a Brokerage Account, if you wanted to trade just regular listed stocks. Tha meant trading money between accounts that would not be required in different circumstances. For the lack of support, and other reasons I have done very little trading through them recently. I would guess in these days of "free" commissions pretty much everywhere (profits only made by relatively sophisticated order flow selling, as done by Riding Hood); I would guess they have little reason to invest in new trading platforms

I think it is part of a philosophy going back to John Bogle, of keeping costs down as identified for mutual funds. In any case, they seem surprisingly unsophisticated.

But it is not my job to fix a company's strategy or implementation. I would expect that if they don't know they have a problem they won't listen to you to say they need to develop a better interface. So the above is just to confirm that they are not trying to offer trading features, and would rather just hold Grand ma's passive mutual funds. And of course, collect money from the largest passive funds like S&P 500.

Mar

28

Please consider for the SpecList

John Ridpath (1935 – March 23, 2021)

John Ridpath taught at York University in Toronto.

Like his close friend Allan Gotthelf and like George Reisman, John was reviled by his colleagues for his philosophical convictions but was over and over again voted as best teacher.

Like Alan Gotthelf and George Reisman, John was able to introduce three or four concepts in a lecture and students would come away with an understanding so clear that they would think them completely obvious.

John was formally a member of the Economics Department at York and formally taught Intellectual History but what he really taught was that a very few intellectually active, philosophically consistent people could change the course of history. His specialty was the amazing coincidence of a small group of men who created the philosophically consistent constitution of the United States, the only constitution ever that recognizes, and defends, the right of each person to have the freedom to better his or her own life. His Canadian(!) students loved it. I had the great good fortune of an open invitation to attend classes led by John during the ugly early 1970’s and, whenever I could escape work, I would go. It was like having the gas tank refilled.

Like the best of the self-interested, he was warm and generous to the point of shaking one’s head: How could someone be so much this way? For me, he was a wonderful mentor.

Mar

28

Hands

March 28, 2021 | Leave a Comment

There must be something about hands and brain - and common sense. and well-being.
most of my male friends who also work w their hands (e.g wood work or so, when they otherwise are traders) seem to have better grasp of simple things now….the hands stand for humanity as well. etc.
the wokes love to be in their head…a lot…in a virtual world.

Mar

28

wsj.com/articles/the-long-tail-of-the-pandemic-puppy-business-11616770770?mod=hp_lista_pos3 the hiways and byways shadows and lights of a great trader Larry Williams.

https://studio.youtube.com/channel/UC85UPcd0vziV3C8ShkRvfCA hiways and by ways of a trader Larry Williams https://studio.youtube.com/channel/UC85UPcd0vziV3C8ShkRvfCA.

Mar

27

Austin Lackey  writes:

Hey Specs,

Does anyone have any experience with the idea of tokenizing fungible assets/commodities? Idea being that you have a lot tracked asset that has the ability to be used in production and/or traded. It may trade hands 1,000 times before it's used, or used by the first buyer. The token coordinates with an exact lot in a warehouse or vault, and would be "burnt" if the owner ever took physical delivery. Has anyone seen (or worked with) anything similar to this, and what pitfalls do you see? I've seen JPMorgan is doing something similar with gold on their platform Quorum.

Laurel Kenner writes:

The chair's son is an expert in this subject. 

Mar

27

Pressure

March 27, 2021 | Leave a Comment

Victor Niederhoffer  writes:

What can the physics of pressure tell us about markets.  when a large accumulation of sel orders is directed at one point the force /area is great as it is in a triple top or double top or break thru the sogi/ what other elementary physical principles apply to markets. 

Zubin Al Genubi writes:

I can venture to say the idea of Gravity does NOT work in markets. Looking at a chart one gets the illusion of height or that gravity might effect prices but it is an illusion and a dangerous misleading illusion.

Peter DeBaz writes:

I'm not a physicist, so I'm sure that any understanding I have of physics would make a pro scoff.  Financial "momentum" could be an expression of newton's first law.  VN's original idea could be a restatement of f=ma, newton's second.  And finally, "value" trading could be a violation of the second law of thermodynamics, which is why, one could argue, that it never worked (lol). 

Andrew Aiken writes:

Black-Scholes-Merton option pricing formula is a direct restatement of the heat (diffusion) equation:

ut − ∆u = f(x, t)

and later refinements such as Heston, which allows for pricing “jumps”, are extensions of this equation with additional conditions.

(I prefer to price options in a way that doesn’t underprice tail risk)

Mar

27

Bonds finally going down but still 1/2 pt above 1 year lows.

Interview today with the great and multi dimensional Larry Williams today on Yelena victor blog at 500pm

Mar

27

Proverb of day. particularly apt for last 3 days - down a cumulative 2.5%, "your game is often less strong in the ending than it appears in the opening - the truth of the matter is that it was lost in the muddle".

One of those irrational reaction. tapering in play. ultimately. that's supposed to bearish for bonds as fed doesn't buy more debt and sell some. but bonds don't go down. but stocks dol. what is the reason? does the liquidity from bonds go directly to stocks?

One nost Germany just down 0.15 %. the sogi level of 3850 is in play. excessive bear in stock in my opinion, buying some before below the sogi level of 3850. one notes bonds finally down 3 tick before was up 10 tips for day. what are chances of blue day if not today then tomorrow.

If it was good for silage and vig and busted spec overnight like at 430am est then why not create some transactions and especially vig now.

The end game didn't work for 75 pts and last 3 games. perhaps a refutation of the infrastructures defense this time.

Mar

24

This is interesting that I've heard from many spec that the move from the low in march is u p 50% and this is very rare and very bear. but tut have tested it. its not so rare and its bullish. Mr. Pink gives me a nice study going back to 1922. the points is that as usual the conventional wisdom and yet another reason to be fearful is totally malarkey and mumbo jumbo.

Gentlemen bout of love hotel at 430 am there time . they stayed a little later than anticipated.

On Ridpath Tribute Inbox Linden Doerr <lwdoerr@gmail.com> 12:10 PM (1 hour ago) to me Please consider for (cont) http://tl.gd/n_1srkol9 

Mar

23

Proverb of day : if I hadn't gone there:; if I hadn't made that capture: if I hadn't sacrificed a piece: if it were not for the "ifs "wed all be champions.

The stimulus twins testify today. that; must be why bonds going thru roof.

https://zerohedge.com/markets/american-health-regulators-slam-astrazeneca-releasing-incomplete-trial-data problem may be their outsized contribution to a certain governors association.

If I hadn't waited to buy after the opening, if I had bought crude when I wanted to down 270 on the day, if I hadn't waited until cancel gardener said the economy was no god, if I had been , if I hadn't up at 500 am when the SP was hitting 3910, if I hadn't suggested that the basketball team Liberty change its name as its not in keeping with the Tripoli,, if I had bought Nasdaq instead of SP, if I hadn't been turned off buying so because the Nikkei was down big–

Proverb of day. the race is not to the swiftest, nor the slowest. the laurel wreath is awarded to the steadiest and the surest.

It was a blue day yesterday and so far its blue also. with Nasdaq in the green.

Gentlemen get computer warning from love hotel at 28300 Nikkei.

Mar

22

Jeffrey Watson writes:

This Surfline article delves into the reasons that while the waves people are riding are getting bigger and bigger, nobody has died while riding them in a long time. The author attributes this to better training, better conditioning, better equipment, and new safety measures with a team effort. 

Since getting wiped out in the market can be accurately be described with a surfing analogy, what methods have you implemented to protect yourself from a six sigma event in the market?

https://www.surfline.com/surf-news/nobody-died-big-waves-lately/112815?

 

Zubin Al Genubi writes:

Using Ralph Vince's risk management tools.

Mar

22

Happy days a Barron Coleman day bonds and stocks very green.

https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=7285spp some time ago, Mr. Steveelison defined a flexion index as the performance of the financial sector stocks versus the averages. With a flexion in the Defense Dept. deviating his attention to diversity and progressive , this mite be an interesting play. 

Mar

22

Proverb of day goes along with errors in anticipating , every aspect of day. " we all have losing days, drawing days, and wining days: not every day is a loosing day: and not every day is a drawing day, and although we may not like it, not every day is a winning. Not every day is a winning day: that's life in chess, checkers and markets.

Mar

20

Did you know that Dailyspeculations.Com now has a Youtube Channel ?

You can find it here

Or you can find a link on this page, further down on the right side under Resources & Links

Enjoy!

Mar

19

Thank you very much. I was able to shave and then have a refreshing cup with Mr. Sogi virtually.

Mt.ag trader we will pay half and whenever you're ready were game.

For those who just found my twitter I am a shooting star could be canceled at any time as the algorithm's mistakenly believe i am not progressive enough so your following me mite be ephemeral 

Mr. Woland asks me to o pine on an article which says that foreign bonds a re much more attractive than us bonds. I am not an expert on this. but after a 30 big point decline in bonds I would hesitate to be overly bearish on them. the fed is in a pair of pants on bonds.

As mentioned. eventually they will have to stop raising rates as it will hurt the vote buying. as for foreign bonds being much more attractive, the yields are all equilibrated by the forward rates in currencies. so where it look like you are getting extra yields.

In foreign bonds you are expected to lose a much in the exchange rate. I apologize if this is too naïve and doesn't answer your question but I am not astute enough to digest a erudite study in a disparate field with my ageism and stroke. 

Proverb of the day" chess and checkers represent our intellectual nourishment. they are available to all, and they are ours for the taking. Some take to chess, and some take to checkers, like a fish to water" and a few hardy souls like Harry Pillsbury( who could play 30 game.

Pillsbury could play 30 games simultaneously blind folded while engaged in a game of ping pong and exchanging share repartee) develop ability in both games. However, the majority of players are content to play and master one of these great games: although the masters do not.

The masters do no really master either game. Life is too short for either game) Tom Wiswell.

Big cons in the market and life. importance of reducing vig by going for big gains or losses, the best western book of all time, intro to Elmer Kelton, and a meal for limited time on triple witching hour, books my family owned the role of police et al.

Shocking decline Nikkei down2.5% over night. From re sofar green with bonds and stocks. crude say above 60.00. Ms. Harries 50% more likely to be president in 2024 than Mr. Biden according to betting odds. Harvard pretends to be caring of Asians.

The round number couldn't be prenumbered.. the prediction of an up opening was wrong by 8 big pts. grains and crude are up.. bullish vibes for the future especially next week. how low can the fed force bonds down to increase service rates and wealth penalty.

Proverb of day: when you beat players on the way up, let them down gently: you are sure to meet them again.. on the way down. and a bonus: don't play on a heavy meal: a hungry player is a good player.

Beware of getting in over your head so that your brokerage or clearing firm can close you out without notice.

Today was one of those days where you keep looking at the screen after the close, and thinking that some final ticks are missing — and sure to come in a few minutes.

Mar

19

Aftermath of open market meeting, bond vigilantes bring bond down to 153 handle. Nikkei reaches 303000 but then recedes to 299254 now. stock market has nice 2% decline form 3980 high. a bad day for woke .There creating recrimination Damocles sword hangs over chance gardener.

Dr. cattle " its a race between the virus and the vaccine, "could be better in 2022.

Any ideas that were based on the rally fizzling at yesterday's close are vitiated,

Mr. ag trader. can we interview you at 5pm Est time. We admire a man who speaks plain truth.

When I was in my prime, my uncle Roy worked for us and was then as always very facile with the computers. at age of 13 he had produced 100 games and had 10 brights from great neck south working for him. He produced voice program that was triggered by prices . and Paul Derosa said it was better than any trading manager. one of the computer vocalizations was " how Loo can bonds go " it is relevant. and we humbly request an interview with Mr. ag trader to augment the computer.

Mr James Altucher worked for us also. and I complement him on one foot he most deceptive door openers that I have ever had the gullibility to be exposed to. ill finish the story when I drink my coffee.

The funny thing about the door opener that induced the hire is that I believe MR. Alutcher would be very proud of it to this day it is. Speaking of Mr. Altucher one must point to the several years that MR. Adam Robinson worked for us. He often played chess with Art beguiler.

Its anyone's game as of 11 pm Est

Mar

17

Last on3 on 1 -22 opened down 48 big pts and then went down 88 from there that would be good for anyone including the croc hunters.

"If you cut off the tall trees the tulips will grow" chance gardener.

Thanks goodness the germens and Japanese were forewarned.

What we can all agree on is if all humans were ordered to sleep with mask's and never get out of bed , the climate would be much better and the virus would be checked. And this doesn't only apply to 2 year old but to new born and old folks also.

I am leaving the table to study checkers proverbs. you can play my hand but at your risk .

While I'm away from the table I'll have a serving of dairy queen milk shake and I'll study all Geico advertisements over the past years to see if they are the apotheosis of the sage's contempt for the common man and call for increased service rates. 

Proverb of the day " if you want to be certain of your position, begin by doubting it" tom would apply that himself . In any hard fought game he'd stop and thoughtfully say " I'm in over my head . I better simplify: tom was undefeated for 25 years while he was world champion.

The funny thing is that all good checker players learn to think 40 moves or so forward. so when a good player says the ending is ambiguous I better simplify he's often thinking 4o moves in advance or several alternative paths depending which for the opponent takes. that's why checkers is a game of exactitude. to say nothing about how a good player will know the book and in the old days have a manuscript with thousands of games.

As Tom says so common is the game of checkers that its profundity if to the lay mind an unreality— a kind of harmless fiction. to the student the wonders of the board are astonishing realities.

youtube.com/watch?v=v_J_PI_vIzc how a pair of pants swayed the folks at Fed to raise interest rates and goose stocks. a solution to climate change, what should be your stopping rule, the influence of luck. the wisdom of Odysseus, arousal of cuome, woke cubed to fan service rates. 

 

Mar

17

Tune in to blog for relation of birds to market, arousal, eating their own, contagious of me too, Brooklyn college losing 85 to -3 to Notra Dame.

Unsolicited guidance for Elon Musk. Follow the blazing path of the Palindrome, the fang founders, the Sage, - be more progressive in your statements, shout out for me service duties on the wealthy. Hank Reardon was destroyed.

I do like a man like Mr. ag trader who tells you right out what's going to happen. don't we all. And the man that's telling the truth when he says he is not, I distrust most of all because that's going contrary to the laws of nature. said the fat man.

The fed is in a pair of pants now. they want to help the progressives along to raise taxes on the above average. so if they knock interest rates down again they can make the case that they better not tighten money or reserve rules or threaten not to buy all the debt.

From innumerable stimulus bills. all rite they want to help the current admin along by increasing interest rates to an unsustainable level( like 3 of the long bond(.but if they do that , they have to make sure that the stocks don't go down 1200 big points like last. So they must change the language or the projections so that its' good for stocks and bad for bonds. What's the sports analogy of the situation the fed is in?

One thing for sure they can count on the bi-partisan congressional budget office to predict that raising taxes will reduce the deficit. you see since they cant use dynamic scoring if taxes were raised to 100% say from their current level of 50% ,they would score it as they would score it as a 500% increase in service revenues received over 5 year. thus no more deficit. if the CDC goes along and they're fellow travelers so that's for sure, they could eliminate all humans from getting out of bed in morning and stay there. with no activity. Not only would the deficit go to zero, but the climate would get colder and carbon emissions would be lower. of course I am very woke because the more it's woke the better for stock market and most of my much needed wealth since I am retired is in the stock market held back the announcement (I think based on a little bird who knows) to sink the former prez.

Proverb of day from Tom Wiswell : no victory depends on chance; instead, skill, science, and study are the winning watch words.

Mar

15

Guaranteed to happen : the "non-partisan" committee will calculate that a wealth tax on those with wealth above 1million will generate 2 trillion in extra taxes in 5 years provided anyone who reduces wealth goes to jail. dynamic scoring will not be allowed.

Mr. Sogi do you take your Kona coffee with milk, sugar, or ice cream for a celebration.

Art disguiser in our chess games when I took four minutes to think after getting myself into an unfathomable , and untenable position would shake his head and say " now you're thinking ?!!!" 

I hasten to add that I could never give Art a god game. I never became a decent chess player. I took the game and lessons up when the Palindrome asked ordered me to play a game. the Palindrome once beat Art in a game. Nigel Davies toyed with Art who by that time was in 70's

In my defense I am a mediocre checker payer and took lessons for 25 years weekly from the great Tom Wiswell. 

Art won the national Jr. national open and National senior championships and beat Reshefsky a few times.

I arranged for Art to teach chess to the Palindrome and his family, but the Palindrome called a halt to it as Art was self taught and had no system although he could annotate the history of any men going back t the 19th century.

Free associations Hand size as a door opener with young high heeled blonds with dress: no dynamic scoring allowed in "non-partisan congressional budget office– importance of break thru to new high and fast conquering of 50's level for SP and Bitcoin. remember you cant.

You cant have breakfast all day . and the Sogi level can bed a magnet both ways. anyway Kona coffee all around. new all time high for SP after 30 days of waiting.

youtube.com/watch?v=Vq4ftBaRuwY you cant have breakfast all day at 26: 54 second into performance.

Mar

15

“In a ZIRP/NIRP world, every asset feels like a [principal only] PO, and there are scant [interest only] IO assets,” notes our old pal Nom de Plumber, a senior risk manager with a penchant for suing federal agencies. “So, assets generally behave in a digital manner, ping-ponging between 0:00 (extension and default) and 100:00 (prepayment), as you illustrate via accounting treatment. And market volatility and illiquidity go in tandem. Thank you.” 

- Chris Whalen The IRA Analyst

Mar

15

Grocery store workers are working, meat packers are working, hell bars and restaurants are open in many (cont) http://tl.gd/n_1srkchr is max interruptus bull or bear. Sennett victor blog will have answer today as well as non-overlapping expectations for key markets wen in habitat or Nas down and SP up.

One can imagine the delays that would have been visited on the vaccines if the CDC, and FDA had their way before " early Nov" guaranteed to happen: dr. cattle says that climate change will create more pandemics. 2the Fed twins will call for more stimulus. 3 the irascible governor will be given 100 times more latitude than one who was not poster boy for anti-former. 4. sec. defense diversity. While were at it, what to expect from the fed vis ai vis serial correlation on on 5 pm. march 15 pod.

Guaranteed to happen : the "non-partisan" committee will calculate that a wealth tax on those with wealth above 1million will generate 2 trillion in extra taxes in 5 years provided anyone who reduces wealth goes to jail. dynamic scoring will not be allowed.

Mar

15

Interesting to see relative performance of SP and Nas with no overlap when both diverge over last 60 day, i.e. when one is up and the other down, how does it compete to random days in last 12 years.

I am very fortunate when algorithms aren't taking followers away because of their incorrect calculation that I am not progressive enough, I am greeted by advertisements for specials offers to buy NY times and offers to buy dairy queen chickens bites, that is shot across bow.

Go to office of handicapper general for punishment https://youtube.com/watch?v=T-4LZj_jGEE to immerse yourself in Berkshire and NY times advertisements.

Proverb of the day from Tom Wiswell " some players never fall for the same trap twice. they are very good at finding new ways to lose. ( shout out to former President, and director of woke on algorithm).

Mar

12

back to new 1yr low for bonds' at 15794 basis March.

Defense dept. fires shot across the bow at news media. maintains steadfast defense of capitol with more force than in Afghanistan.. bonds at new low. very woke very bull.

Dr. cattle lobs critique 

The calm before the storm Monday 

Shocking prediction https://youtube.com/watch?v=T-4LZj_jGEE when SP up and Nasdaq down over last 60 days? when bonds ware at new 6o day low is SP bear? hey all American from Martin Niederhoffer to coach Irons at Brooklyn college. Slow steady rise doesn't force bear out the frog.

Mar

12

Good movie on video , Kurt Vonnegot, the more you lose in sales, the more I give you of other peoples money. lesson on difference between sales and profits appropriate.

Keys to game. 1 will the SP break old high of 3954 set on 2 -15 -2021.

The more woke the more bull… suppression of impairment, forgiveness for certain farmers,, steady beat of the relentless rise to new highs, long time between drinks, money to certain groups , banning of right to work.

Finally the tech assuming their rightful lead over old faithful's . a la mode de rigeur, the way woke world should be.

The number of susceptible, those not already vaccinated to woke is keeps getting smaller. will there be enough to bring the SP to new high or will the market succumb to the English disease. 

Very thoughtful and valuable discussion of checker playing and proverbs on last two videos of Sennetttniederhoffer .

Mar

11

Forgotten Books

March 11, 2021 | Leave a Comment

Bo Keely writes:

Forgotten Books  https://www.forgottenbooks.com/en  may be the answer to the ret of your free time from the distant past. It is online or paper books from 1920 or prior to the 18th century. The books are free or cheap, electronic or paper. I've read about 50 mostly first-hand accounts. At the home page just select the topic and up pops the selections. 

Peter Saint-Andre writes:

Related, I maintain a website containing literary and philosophical

writings (often liberty-related) that have passed into the public domain:https://monadnock.net/

Most of these texts are optimized for reading on your smartphone

(although I'm still splitting some of them into smaller chunks).

Suggestions are welcome for the roadmap of future publications.

Mar

11

youtube.com/watch?v=jfYHXL4p8GA the more stimulus bill. the more you lose in 2020 ,the more I pay.

Find out about the romantic life of the 3 greatest composers of the 19th century.

"Ex food and energy" 1.4% for hermits. Speaking of hermits a helpful hint from Forgotten Books
 
Forgotten Books https://forgottenbooks.com/en may be the answer to the rest of your free time from the distant past. It is online or paper books from 1920 or prior to the 1. everything's  groovy. perhaps a Barron Coleman day, everything is woke.

Adding insult to injury Roger Clemens
12 OF 16
Scooping up a piece of Piazza's shattered bat, Clemens tossed it in the direction of the former catcher, making it look like he was intentionally trying to hurt the guy—which was probably his plan. 

Beethoven trained a telescope on school so he could be sure that Karl towed the mark and that the school treated him well. Have often followed on those footsteps to make sure my kids were being treated well by their school. before that my father did the same for me " The principal always said to me " you should know better your father is a cop" the principal of my high school tried with all his mte to get me not admitted to Harvard. he ran a competitive tutoring service.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=jfYHXL4p8GA the more stimulus bill. the more you lose in 2020 ,the more I pay.

Mar

10

247 million false entries memorialized on big platform for Prez. 45- 69 million false entries memorialize for Prez 44. Luv Governor mentions before 25 and after 45 shows similar bull bias.

Advice from two greats: if you want to be creative "Walk " preferably in the woods or forest. Beethoven and Brahms waked an average of 4 hours a day in Vienna woods. school boys used to think Beethoven was madman as they met him murmuring and gesticulating on their way. The school boys met him going to school and the coming back from school. he yelled and howled as he was thinking of music because he was deaf.

"A spike and channel bear trend" https://investing.com/analysis/emini-big-reversals-in-middle-of-3week-trading-range-200566012 there's hope for counters as long as wsj espouses — 

Mar

9

"Caught my attention " , tightening, ' go big ", 350 billon Argentina, 15 weeks paid leave.

What could be more woke https://federalreserve.gov/foia/files/chair-yellen-calendar-062014.pdf camp kinderland " go big ".

Mar

8

A flirt comes back, a true one does! But it goes when the host is convinced that it has come, for good. Who is a better flirt than Ms. Markets? So that was putting the Chair's Theory of Rounds with some colour. 
Now, there have been so many who suddenly found this pattern, that pattern, this yield that related contract justifying all together that the end of the world is now confirmed. But then the whole art and science of taking risks is that the Ms. will never allow many or any to be actually ever benefitting from what is confirmed. She is a flirt, she will come back again & then when the whole world will be again convinced its never going to end on a breach of 4000 there … she will go again. 

Mar

8

https://www.credit-suisse.com/about-us-news/en/articles/media-releases/credit-suisse-global-investment-returns-yearbook-2021-202103.html

Mar

8

Rates  return graph of the triumphal trio yet but every since  their work appeared in 1997 which I first popularize dand reviewed  they have  been presenting work  that  pushed the expected return down by 5% or so a ear. I call  it the English disease. I have  tried to counter this  but they always have a new argument. they are like shiller in that content. I am not as facile now as I was 20 years ago, but I will find  time and they ability to understand their real return graph and then will  serif it part of the  English disease. However,  no one has more respect for the  triumphal  trio than I . 

Mar

8

I'll take a red sandwich on green. " life is tooo short to wake up in the morning with regrets".

This will go down with " baker did it" in the annals of disintegration. " the former president did it " 

Mar

8

K SUBSCRIBER, 6 minutes ago
These guys are clueless. No inflation?? Slack labor market???
Visit the world of manufacturing, with chronic shortages of everything, including skilled labor, and prices on everything going up 5-30%
Likethumb_up3 a very sagacious wsj reader.

I feel much secure with the thousands of national guard guarding the capital. it makes me doubly happy that there will be a stimulus bill. let us hope the statisticians return from camp kinder so that they can put the final touches on the need for employment.

The most bullish thing is the revulsion that thinking people will feel towards a certain letter to the wsj blaming others for the plight we are in now. this will love a significant number of voters who are needed to reverse the turn to agrarianism.

youtube.com/watch?v=2iqqAIZpp2c protection from the putative takeover of the capital by the Guard.

The market is content with breaking on constructal level and one Sogi and flirts with second Sogi only to demur for some Kona coffee.

We let it all hang out. Japanese love hotels, big minima, forcing the weak out , total 8% move today better than entire move for year. all the woke things that fostered market along.

Mar

8

Nikkei refuses to stay below 29000.

Hello Mr. Sogi, perhaps we will meet in virtual Japan.

Free association https://google.com/search?q=camp+kinderland&rlz=1C1CHBF_enUS920US920&oq=camp+kinderland&aqs=chrome..

69i57j46i175i199i275j35i39l2j0l3j0i22i30l3.20819j0j4&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8 the bls, ,weak hiring, Texas - Missouri ,plot that endangers capital and guard, not eating. 

Hello Mr. Sogi waves had a undertow. only 2 down to 1 am and 1o up after a bad previous day before employ I forgot to say that everything depends on the Nikkei. ca they keep the support as they did yesterday before capitulating Nikkei low is 28300.

Key to the game 1. the Japanese lose face by allowing the Nikkei to stay below 29000. 2. will the people at a certain bureau put the final touché on the number to insure that the stimulus bill is imperative especially planned parenthood and the relief for gov workers. Gov workers with children going to school online. Should they receive paid staycation for life like deserving farmers of color

Mar

8

Finally the chance gardener and fellow camp kinderland begin to realize at the 159 handle for bonds that something is not rite. at least it wont hurt the stimulus . that's the game I think.

Mar

2

Book Recco

March 2, 2021 | Leave a Comment

Gary Boddicker  writes:

I recently picked up https://www.amazon.com/Cattle-Kingdom-Hidden-History-Cowboy/dp/0544369963 on a recommendation from Ryan Holiday’s excellent reading newsletter: https://ryanholiday.us1.list-manage.com/track/click?u=dcd3642d86121fbcaa9914228&id=03b4ecb2d5&e=879beeec35 

Panoramic history of what could be America’s first nationwide industry with entrepreneurs and risk takers for days: the decimation of the buffalo, cow town stock yard developments,  “assembly line” manufacturing predating Mr.Ford and his automobiles, refrigerated rail cars, “dead meat” exports to Europe, Delmonico’s, a great big commodity speculative bubble fueled in part by global investors in the US industry…plus the real skinny on life as a cowboy, cattle drive misery, gunfights (or the lack thereof)… very well written, engaging tale, with characters galore. I’m halfway through and it’s not easily put down. Highly recommend. 

Stefan Jovanovich writes:

If GB's review were on Amazon, it would join many others.  Mine would be tucked away at the bottom and would probably be rejected for being unkind to authors …..

Knowlton has written a lazy book.  To think that the beef ranching, stockyard and wholesale butchering trades were "America’s first nationwide industry" you have to know less than nothing about American history.  Mr. Swift Cowboys and cattle drives were a minor adjunct to a secondary business for the railroads.  They disappeared as soon as the spur lines were built out.  There is also some pure crap: "A direct link connects vigilante justice on the open range and U.S. involvement in Vietnam." I recommend a few minutes reading about the SRL as an emetic.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swift_Refrigerator_Line

 

Gary Boddicker  writes:

Stephan- in fairness to the “lazy” book, there is a good discussion of the SRL development you highlight including Swift’s fight with the rail lines, who preferred perpetuating the more lucrative live cattle shipping they had been enjoying, and his ultimate victory. The “emetic” was included. In fact, the major railroad’s market hold had to be “overcome” at a couple junctures in the book…usually by utilizing smaller competitors. 
The discussion of Swift’s further battle to get “refrigerated meat” accepted by East Coast butchers and consumers reminded me of my formative years when my father was fighting a similar war to get IBP’s innovative “boxed beef” accepted in the same protected, unionized,”mobbed up,” markets:  
https://www.encyclopedia.com/social-sciences-and-law/economics-business-and-labor/businesses-and-occupations/ibp-inc
As to “nationwide,” That wasn’t the author’s claim, but my hyperbole. It’s possible I spent too many Saturday mornings in Denison packing houses, Sioux City stockyards “smells like money”, and Plainview feedlots and I was willing to give “Beef” an outsized designation having stumbled across this history. Still have a little romance in my heart for that tough industry, its people, and the western geography. ;) Also love a good steak. 
Vietnam? No clue. Haven’t read that yet.  Agree that smells like BS more than napalm smells like victory. Does he mention Robert Duvall’s hat and the Air Cav?
 

Stefan Jovanovich  writes:

Thx, GB.  I am being unfair.  And I have no good excuse.  The author's first book about the Florida land rush bugged me because the author made a reach to compare that episode with the 2008/9 bubble without regard to their relative magnitudes.  (If any real estate bust in the 1920s was comparable, it was Chicago's).  So, reading your comments, I thought "here we go again".  Flipping through electronic pages and using my own version of the Hitler test (bad thinking always gets to some mention of the Fuhrer or Viet-Nam) is not reading or thinking or even vigilante literary justice.  Time once again to wash out my smart aleck mouth with a mea culpa
 
 

Gary Boddicker  writes:

No worries Stefan, always enjoy your perspective…also, based on past posts,  I am quite certain you’ve forgotten more of American History than I’ve ever known. I hope to continue to learn from you

Mar

2

If ones decomposes the driver of value or growth what will find is that it is all about price. the fundamentals change very slow and by small amounts. here is a good academic paper that analyzes this link: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2083166

In other words, value was driven mainly by long-term (>5years) price mean-reversion. the reason for the underperformance over the last decade(s) is that long-term price reversals have not worked. 
this paper as well https://www.q-group.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Linnainmaa-Dissecting-Factors.pdf 

Mar

2

Outperforming the S&P 500 with 50 Consensus Stock Holdings of 40 Large
Hedge Funds
• This investment strategy holds a maximum of 50 consensus stock picks
from 40 hedge funds with more than $3,500 million Assets Under
Management.
• Changes in the holdings occur only every three months when the end
of the quarter 13F filings becomes public information; the latest date
was February 15, 2021.
• From 02/24/08 – 02/19/21 this strategy would have produced an
annualized return (CAGR) of 18.7%, significantly more than the 10.7%
CAGR of the S&P 500 ETF (SPY).
• Here we report the most recent holdings, and also list the stocks
removed and added as of the week ending 2/19/2021.

Mar

2

https://jameslindlibrary.org/articles/charles-frederick-fred-mosteller-1916-2006/ attribute to a great m an and teacher. who had interests in poker, chess, magic, and folk dancing. the consummate teacher. a humble man. my thesis adviser. His autobiography the pleasure of statistics. His autobiography https://amazon.com/Pleasures-Statistics-Autobiography-Frederick-Mosteller/dp/0387779558 so many good people , so many memories, always ran through lectures a for 2 hours before giving them. was chairman of 4 Harvard faculty schools, started out in social relations with Talcott parsons. wrote many papers on runs.

Lessons from sports statistics: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/254330967_Lessons_from_Sports_Statistics 

goodreads.com/book/show/413617.Good_Bye_Mr_Chips a English counterpart without the 555 contributions to research.

Mar

2

(Free associations) three strikes, " may I take the liberty ", governor, Dr. Seuss, earmarks, Nikkei down 330, bonds at161, diversity in boards, assistance from Dr wife, "the incorruptible" ,contagion . crude below $60.00, resolve of chance gardener for a day.

Archives

Resources & Links

Search