Jul

25

Risk of another market pullback is high. 2021/07/23

Jul

25

the duckworth-tukey test for differences between medians is useful and interesting and novel. i will give an example later. test 93 from 100 Statistical Tests by Gopal K. Kanji is unusual, useful for testing diffs between medians. consider the smallest observation from one distribution and the largest observation from the other. then take the overlaps

Jul

25

Deep Blue plays Jim Sogi's original songs, Puuo and Waiilikahi

Jul

25

lawyers have been effusive in cross examining the niceties of witnesses in political testimony but I wonder what the appropriate cross examining questions are when a witness says he doesn't know if laptop with dates and places and pictures are his own
 
one of dr. brett's techniques for better trading is to laugh at yourself.  ridicule. i am ridiculing myself for not racking up for new highs
 
anti-capitalism, anti-private-property, capture by the atlanta 100.  attempts at divisiveness and lockdown, pro marxism, agreed what could be worse?
 
let us not forget list of marxism that will lift the S&P to new constructal. the handling of the cuban revolt. they are not allowed to come to us (250000 fine for helping them) but the red carpet is laid out for those who likely vote blue for handouts
 
now while we're at it, the virtue signaling - no more cleveland indians and the general destruction and decryinig of our history

Jul

22

Bitcoin breaks 30k, what's next? Markets rebound. 2021/07/20

Jul

20

Vic's twitter feed

hopefully one side will have a better defense against marxism than that it creates  inflation
 
mentioned marxism in a bad way and lost subscribers.  the loss of subscribers had been much allayed since various suits and complaints
 
it's ironic to see masters 1000 and big tech rooting for marxism as in cuba or venezuala or russia — or are these just anomalies? presumably this idea is captured
 
keys to game. will sp make a dive before breaking the round, will crude turn around after 50-day low.  will compromise on infrastructure show complete nothingness of one side's agenda. how will big tech profit from the red herring of cancel and suppression
 
with all the anxiety and bearishness of the reacent declines, nasdaq is 1.5 from all time high after 3 down days in row
 
yesterday's move from 3:30 to 4:15 was 14th largest in history and the sixth largest from 3:30 to 5:00 pm. will it repeat or disappoint?
 
dare i say wihtout being canceled that news of pandemic increasing revals news of infrastructure as the fastest and most assured way of losing money to the bigs
 
one thing for sure is that the prodigal son is the perfect liar and is a model for the perfect lie

Jul

18

Is stock market pullback over? Crypto? 2021/07/16

Jul

17

Vic's twitter feed

weak longs are margined out or scared out i think
 
why did not sogi have his day today after the 930 open? there was too much non-anti-government. the visceral reaction of every thinking person has to equate the suppression of views as a negative. the crime situation was non-anti also: a NYC attempted kidnapping
 
as the market refused to cross the sogi level after the open, one was reading bill browder's Red Notice and the situation is so similar
 
i have been inspired by chapter 6 of don quixote and wish to find the books that wanted to bring back the good old days of chivalry with don's critique of the bad old days. any suggestions as to which should be burned or saved would be appreciated
 
here's a pretty kettle of fish: bonds at a 5-month high, but stocks 4 days and 50  points from an all-time high. 1 day away from a non-quarterly expiration. becoming  clearer every day that suppression reigns supreme, and things are not what they seem in potomac
 
just a question of time until bonds pull stocks to new high. a guess: within 5 days

Jul

17

101-year-old Maine woman may be the oldest person in the world still lobstering

Jul

15

Vic's twitter feed

bonds continue their response to buying of bonds by Fed and pronouns of Treasury. still  some groups-not getting handouts. buying of votes reigns supreme
 
miss sarah, one notes that crude is at a sane or almost a 29-day minimum at 7250 with the only lower price having occurred on wed june 7 at 7213.  would you say that crude is due for a rise?  the numbers and distance are fairly bullish
 
note to self: if you wish not to lose all followers, don't refer to atlanta 1000, don't refer to family grifters, don't talk about suppression, don't mention the unmentionable founder of multivariate statistics, especially vis a vis diversity and crime
 
burning of books here. bill gross on investing, back files of alan abelson's column, one book falls out: Justin Mamis The Nature of Risk: Stock Market Survival & the Meaning of Life. "life is like stock market, the fear of death causes you to exit too early the mid life crisis causes excessive trading". a keeper
 
don't throw out Justin Mamis books i exhort susan as she throws out all my books and says if we just waited for the all time highs as we did in the childrens' 559 trusts, we'd be much better. but then i read in the nature of risk: venturing is just a beginning 
 
venturing can be cut short by fear and worse by the settling for the ego satisfaction of having tried - "getting out too early us as if to avoid death by tiptoeing  away". another book refuses to burn and I find it life sustaining 

Jul

14

Has the market run up too high on optimism? 07/13/2021

Jul

13

Vic's twitter feed

an archetypical day so far we stand for assembly and rite for familys to profit and a series of all-time highs with a strong opening on Monday.
 
an archetypical day. inflation looks bad so stocks go down 1000 but bonds go up 10 ticks
 
but everything's infrastructure. nw it will be harder to promote unionization
 
which of these words will lead to greatest suppression, anti-americanism, the artistic son, the american flag raised in south, unionization
 
a certain economist from chicago noted that comerce creates freedom. no better example of this than the grey lady displaying a 1st page ad for patrick o brian works which are heroic and support the great contirbution of the English Navy to civilizatn in 19th century
 
finally the anti-americanism reaches a maximorum and by comparison its a maximum

Jul

12

S&P levels and Monday prediction. 2021/07/09

Jul

11

Red Notice

July 11, 2021 | Leave a Comment

the book Red Notice by Bill Browder provides an exciting introduction to starting a business amid many doubters. i recommend it for young people interested in starting a business and anyone interested in how a quant can realized his goals amid the infrastructure.

Jul

9

After 8 days of new highs, a pullback in S&P 500. Is inflation trade over? Crypto, DeFi. 2021/07/06

Jul

7

Vic's twitter feed

it can't get better than a visit by the post office, or their agencies to one's establishment. one hates to make money on this maximum of de-independence and will play the new all time high with trepidation and loathing.
 
one guesses that crude will go up and bonds and stocks will go down…there's a trifecta. lets see how many are wrong.

Jul

4

Steve Keeley: Golden Era of Paddleball and Racquetball

Jul

2

S&P 500 new highs over 4300, 6 up days, bullish? Employment report trade. Crypto chopping 2021/07/01

Jul

2

 The green building insanity had not started at the time Surfside was built (1980).
 
In the 1970s, some professors at Univ. of Illinois at Urbana-Champlain theorized about very well insulated and well air-tightened houses with energy-recovery ventilation to all rooms, and built six of them. The houses required a very small fraction of the energy of comparable houses. After much measuring and public tours, they sold the houses, which last time I saw them were still occupied. The houses were well publicized, including an article in Scientific American that called them “Lo-Cal Houses.” What happened as a result of all the publicity was…..nothing.
 

Comments on buildings and the Surfside collapse continued…

Jun

30

Westerns

June 30, 2021 | Leave a Comment

Vic's twitter feed

i am asked for best western films that do not show hatred and shame of Americanism. i would recommend these be heard on audible, especially The Time It Never Rained.
 
one notes that the 50 best westerns recommended are heavy on debunking of the spirit of individualism and adventure that characterizes the best westerns i would recommend High Noon, The Man Who Shot Liberty Valance, Shane, and the stage coach movies.
 
i don't watch movies to great extent nowadays as it hurts my eyes and makes me late for 7am ET markets. would some readers recommend heroic westerns that don't depend on a single fast gunfighter like the clint eastwood sagas? i like monte walsh for what it could have been.
 
when i wish to regain the spirit of adventure, americanism, individualism, and heroism nowadays that used to characterize westerns, i listen to the patrick obrian novels, narrated by patrick tull. it is ironic that an english author provides so much of this.
 
any westerns by Jack Schaeffer contain the understanding of nature that Loui Lamour has with good character development and appreciation of women and heroism.
 
for timeless adventure and understanding of place and relevance to current days, whenever i have a bad day in markets and are displeased with modern trends i like to listen to don quixote. it requires a day and a half of listening from start to finish but any snippets, chapters.

Jun

30

S&P 500 made another new high, as breadth deteriorates. Crypto and Coinbase COIN rally. 2021/06/28

Jun

29

Hollywood has learned much of Slab City, and Slab City of Hollywood in the past week of cinematography.
 
When you compare a movie highlight reel to the blooper outtakes, and it makes you feel worse, you’re on the wrong road leading from Slab City. No great film can compare to its outtakes, as the Hollywood crew of the movie ‘The Slabs’ discovered this past week when I was their ‘fixer’ who rose to assistant director. Bloopers have universal appeal, as movies may be made of them. These are the behind-the-scenes slips that you won’t see from a theater seat.
 

Hollywood And Slab City Collide continued…

Jun

28

S&P500 finally made new highs, as inflation PCE highest since 1991, but everything's woke 2021/06/25

Jun

28

Vic's twitter feed

"A nation need not be a mob of slaves, clinging to one another through fear, and for the most part incapable of self-government, and begging to be led; but it might consist of vigorous self-reliant men, knit to one another by innumerable ties, into a strong, tense, and elastic organisation."
- Francis Galton
 
one can agree with the thought that energy is the most salient characteristic of eminent persons, and that sports provides a useful model of what energy can accomplish, and how the incentive to work changes but as to how that affects markets, it must be tested.
 
near the beginning of racket games one often allows the opponent to win a point with a drop shot. invariably this leads to the opponent losing 5 times as many points when they try the drop shot later in the game. How can a  political party be so naive as to accept a deal on infrastructure that is sure to be followed by a request and exhortation for 6 times as much infrastructure in the more important later stages of the match. it requires the blessing of useful and envious idiots.

Jun

28

I hadn’t mentioned George Soros for decades until recently because there was no reason to. I don’t read the news and didn’t know a world stand he has climbed to. The fact is I met him hoboing.
 
I boarded a Seaboard freight in Jacksonville, FL and held down flatcars, boxcars, grainers, vans, and containers for two weeks along the east coast to land in Newark, NY. I alighted from a boxcar on the ballast to behold, across the Hudson River, the skyrise of Manhattan. It was an easy stroll through a traffic tunnel into the center of the financial world. I caught a subway to the upper east side, and ran into the raised eyebrows of a doorman in a brownstone, who buzzed up to announce to Victor Niederhoffer, ‘A hobo is here.’
 
Niederhoffer in the mid-90s was the #1 commodities speculator in the nation for four years running. ‘Doc Bo,’ he pinched his nose. ‘I knew you’d be coming one year or another. Jump in the shower, and I’ll lay out clothes for you. We’re going out to eat.’
 
Ten minutes later I had traded my bib overalls for a suitcoat with an apple core and a $100 bill in the pockets. The coat describes the character of Niederhoffer, who had managed George Soros’ Quantum Funds, famous for breaking the Bank of England, before striking out on his own.
 
We took a cab to the esteemed Four Seasons on East 52nd. The table of five included George and his wife Susan, Victor and his wife Gail, and me. It was Thanksgiving, so the order was automatic. I was surprised no drinkers sat at our table.
 
‘How did you like the meal?’ Soros soon asked. I answered with my mouth full, ‘It mashes any Thanksgiving dinner at missions across the country.’ Soros called the chef to our table and made me repeat. I did, and couldn’t understand why the chef laughed, because savory is as much a result of hunger as palate.
 
There was an hour table talk of financial and political dessert that I didn’t partake. My value is always on empty pockets to survive by my wits, with the fewer dollars the more adventures to tell to be treated to such a feast. I felt like the Elephant Man of London celebrated for being different.
 
Thirsty from the long railroad ride, I guzzled bottles of Perrier, until asking one of five waters for a restroom. He pointed to a basement elevator, where I stepped out into the clutch of a man in a tuxedo who yoked me by the elbow to an open urinal. He stood behind like a shadow in a rank of other gents relieving ourselves with towels on the crooks of their arms in case of splashes.
I returned to our party where the table conversation was wound down, and Soros suggested I ride with him and his wife to their Long Island home to meet their 10-year old son. It was proposed that I become his bodyguard, in an era where kidnapping and ransom of children of the wealthy was in vogue. I was shocked and happy when the position was not cleared.
Soros offered instead a game of chess. We played two, with me winning the first with white using a King’s Gambit, and he the second with white using a Queen’s Gambit. He asked where I had learned to push the pieces, and I replied that while my plate was never full the first twenty years of my life, the chess board at our Idaho house always was. I had matriculated across the states to junior chess champion of Jackson, MI. ‘But’ I told him, ‘You have a better chess mind, and if we played more I should be at the losing end.’
 
He grunted competitively, and explained that he had been a baggage boy on a Hungarian railroad, and graduated a philosopher from university before attacking finance. That explained the man to my satisfaction. He owned a hermetically sealed mind from philosophy, was an objectivist, a self-honest fair man, and cheered the working underdog. He concluded instead of a tiebreaker, ‘You have a chip on your shoulder,’ and I cannot help but think he was talking about himself.
 
We met a few times later over the years in Manhattan. I did go on a 13-country tour of the world emerging markets in search of moderate risk with high, fast payoffs in 2nd-and-3rd countries having fresh exchanges that were becoming engaged with global markets. I spent a week each in India, Siri Lanka, Philippines, Indonesia, Korean, Thailand, and others to identify opportunities for Niederhoffer and, later on, Soros. The former made millions per day for weeks from my overnight dispatches of the low life indicators. These are the signs of economic times from the ground up including the length of cigarette butts and price of prostitutes. The honeymoon ended with ‘Black Tuesday’ when Niederhoffer lost much of his net worth due to my non-exacting observations in Thailand and to a quirk in the market.
 
Later, I was sent by the pair, Niederhoffer and Soros, to seed capitalism around the globe. I became Michael Anthony of the TV series ‘The Millionaire’ forty years hence taking cash into 3rd world countries to distribute $3 -5000 each to individuals who met my two criteria of self-honesty and a strong idea for a capitalist venture. These folks on three continents had get-rich thoughts without startup capital for a shoeshine stand, taxi business, barber shop, English school, and a hotdog stand where the delicacy was untasted. I carried cash since ATMs were nonexistent and traveler’s checks were nonnegotiable in backwater towns. The tour ended in Caracas where I was stabbed multiple times with a knife, causing superficial bleeding because of a coat of armor of $100 greenbacks sewn in my clothes that protected me, and robbed. I left on lighter feet, and the project terminated.
 
The Soros I knew was self-honest, which meant the truth hurt but fooling yourself will enslave you. He was fair so attracted birds of a feather. He was also a libertarian who advocates minimal state intervention in the free market and private lives of citizens, granting the right to anyone to go to heaven or hell in his own way. I don’t know if he’s changed, but note he has risen to global influence.

Jun

24

just read meredith wilson's book on work involved in writing The Music Man. so many details involved in the 7 years it took to write the musical and get it produced…last minute changes in previews in Philly and on opening nite. tension and anxiety simlar to waiting for certain premier similar to con man in music man in talking about the sagacity of a leader in the us.  but he did know the territory.
 
self-interview part 7: i like musicals. I've seen all of them. Jack Barnaby started my interest when he played pirates of penzance in my brighton beach home. i had just come from a disastrous event. Ned Bigelow was the main sponsor of squash in that day. he was 80 and was the worst referee in the world besides stu bruans. I thanked bigelow after the game and he said "i didnt do much." I said "that's rite." that remark cost the squash association hundreds of thousands of dollars. I didn't know any gilbert and sullivan then but subsequently saw every show of theirs especially enjoying the bluehill performances (who played the whole repertoire of 22 shows in order, each one magnificent). I knew I was in love with susan my wife at 22 when I called her from a pay phone (something i never did because i am a germaphobic) and told her that she must see the blue hill performance of Mikado. i subsequently saw bluehill perform Mikado on 4 separate occasions each 10 years apart. in addition to G&S, i admire oscar hammerstein as one of the greatest poets of the 20th century.
 
I wish to tell about the 3 greatest hero set pieces in all literature which sustain me and is one of the most ennobling experiences of my life. the three are the railroad scene from atlas shrugged, the stock scene with jack aubrey's old shipmates all come to prevent the enemies and insiders from throwing rocks at him, and the scene from meredith wilsons' book, the music man, where the understudy performs the whole show with 3 hours notice in Philly with the whole cast cuing and rooting him on. I am at the stage where any set piece in a musical is likely to make me cry (a characteristic i inherited from artie).
 
the other reason I am writing this selfie now is that it's just a matter of time perhaps a day or two at most when the S&P will rise to yet another all time high. its' been 7 days since the last all time high, and that's too long. i hope this guess is compensation for you for reading my stories inscribed in this selfie in the middle of a critical market.

Jun

24

Opportunities in De-Fi tokens explained. Uniswap, Curve, Synthetix, PolkaDot, Yearn?

Jun

22

typical running out of weak longs at bitcoin 28000, now up proverbial 15% to 31200.  it's guaranteed to happen.
 
euphemism of the day for description worthless but seeming sense: "gold in choppy waters". what other seemingly sentient things are said to hide their ignorance and uselessness?
 

Vic's twitter feed

Jun

21

Prime Day

June 21, 2021 | Leave a Comment

how does the surge of buying around prime day and the opening of wallets affect stocks? can this effect be generalized?

Jun

20

Vic's twitter feed

"agreement reached that we will not rock the boat tomorrow but will show our steadfastedness and support in the twins agenda thereby reenforcing our job longevity and our market value on the speakership trail"
 
we try to set an example for all our employees and customers. do everything by the book and dont let your guard down. and especially if we are virtuous ourselves lets make sure that the customers are doubly virtuous.
 
fed adopts approach to averaging that shiller, working adopted. let average stay at 2% but the current level be 10% and the past levels be 1%. it averages to 2% the same way p/e are 100 if you use earnigns 20 years ago. 
 
whats it like to be a big brokerage with constant calls on the market — which must be wrong in order to make profits for oneself.
 
what can we learn in markets from how things are seldom what they seem and what can i learn so as not to lose all  followers: Deception in animals
 
i am asked whether the big up move in bonds and the big down move in stocks portends anything predictive. on a qualtiative basis the big move in stocks was due to option expiration and the opportunity for the big boys in the infranstructure to take money from the public.
 
qualtiatively there is no reason for bonds to be up and stocks to be down. if there is inflation worries, then bonds should have been down big. but there are no inflation worries. only oldhearted men who refuse to adjust are concerned about inflation with bonds at this level.
 
however on a quant basis the stocks seem to have a bad monday in for them.  if same happens, there should be a big rise on Tuesday in stocks. the spus at a 18-day low, not quite a 20-day low, to remove all frustration when  the frustration is released by a 20 day lo, then S&P way up.

Jun

20

quote of day of extreme relevance: "A hundred years of faster and bigger transport has kept up and intensified this bombardment of every country by foreign species brought accidentally or on purpose by vessel and by air and also over land from that used to be isolated… the real thing is that we are living in a period of the world's history when the mingling of thousands of kinds of organisms from different parts of the world is setting up terrific dislocations in nature. We are seeing huge changes in the natural population balances of the world." Elton, 1958. The Ecology of Invasion by Animals and Plants. the key to crypto moves.
 
A reader expands:
 
Chair has pointed to N. Shigesada's work on Biological Invasions. The three phases before saturation are covered on p. 27 with many examples from plants, insects and humans for each.
 
A key concept is the Range Distance. Consider a new species, for example the Muskrat unknown in Europe before 1905. In 1905 five muskrats escaped from a farm near Prague; in the next 20 years they spread through all of Germany and Austria-Hungary in a pattern of roughly concentric circles on a map. The range  distance is defined as the square root of the occupied area divided by sqrt(pi). (there are also some other formulas for cases of highly non-concentric spread).
 
How does the Range Distance look like when plotted against time? There are 3 patterns that occur again and again.
 
In the initial establishment phase the range distance shows no increase. After this the Expansion Phase begins.
 
In the simplest and most common case Type 1, it shows linear growth. In the case of the muskrat it is pretty remarkable how close the observations come to a straight line. In the next phase the Saturation Phase the curve levels off and becomes a horizontal straight line.
 
Type 2 called biphasic expansion shows a slow initial linear spread, followed by linear spread at a higher rate. This was seen for the Himalyan thar, the European Starling and European finch, and the Japanese beetle.
 
Type 3 expansion shows a slope constantly increasing over time, resulting in an exponential looking curve. Nevertheless even in this case the Saturation phase follows and the slope decreases to zero. I assume the expansion of cryptocurrencies may be of the Type3 although I have never seen it drawn.
 
There are various explanations for these phases (for example why is there an Establishment Phase with no growth at all) that I will skip over for now. Hope this clarifies a few things. 

Jun

20

Vic's twitter feed

Nadal and Djokovic are incredibly slow for great players. they cant get to 3/4 of all the drop shots hit their opponent. Djokovic stretches too often from  base line instead of taking the extra step. i understand that Chrissie said it was the greatest match but from the screen it looked lackluster. one thing we can all learn from the match is to stop exulting and playing for the audience. if they each stopped emoting when they won a point, they'd have much more energy and concentration at the end. a market player should not talk or emote ever,
a good fast player gets to every drop shot. i never let the ball bounce twice against me in racket sports and i wasn't even fast. also, their overheads were hit down the middle not for winners like Federer. Nadal 's lugubrious style makes him slow to front.
 
by the way i admittedly was the slowest top squash player and had the lowest physical IQ of any players. but when I played tennis i never let an opposing drop shot bounce twice against me. i played thousands of tennis matches and was number 1 on very weak Harvard tennis teams.
 
finally my prediction of Nadal's decline comes true after 12 years. he looks like he's struggling on each shot like a hippopotamus. his mechanical advantage appears to be minus.
 
note that my prediction was made in the midst of Nadal winning the first set. i was also the first to say that Porzingis was a liability who would hurt every team he's on and same for Dantoni. i wish my knowledge and predictions of markets were half as good as my racket.
 
a wristy shot is destined to lose in the pinch in tennis or markets. that's why Tsitsipas will never win and how one predicted Novak would win and why flagellations at the close are non-starters.

Jun

18

Do Day Traders Rationally Learn About Their Ability?

Jun

18

• Stocks are back to their old timey habits of setting a new all-time high on 30% of the days in 2021 versus 23% of all days since 2001. The masters 100 companies know on which side of the bread there's butter and they embrace.
 
• The normally quasi-useful, quasi-academic Jason Zweig writes disparagingly of "investors" who buy a stock "purely because it's gone up a lot". But that must be tested.  The last good study I've seen on that is 20 years old. I believe it's a better-than-darts strategy.
 
• The 30-year bonds have gone up 5% since the beginning of may. The Fed has been vigorous in enforcing proper pronouns and gender speech to their numerous employees and research grantees but seems to be heart felt on helping the infrastructure along.
 

Vic's twitter feed

Jun

17

Vic's twitter feed

nothing about options trading — except it emphasizes a point i made in edspec that you should never trade an inactive market, you should never trade where the vig is large, and you should never trade with a few men named doc who worked at the same hospital.
 
the sander introduced the meeting and said that he met many traders who noted the implied volatility being much too  high. "to a man" he said, "all of those former traders have gone belly up." i referred to Jean Valjean at the trial of a criminal who was going to be falsely accused of stealing the candlesticks. i also referred to davy crocker sending out 5000 posters to his constituents acknowledging that he made a terrible mistake in voting for funds for a georgetown fire.
 
Not Yours to Give (the Davy Crockett story)
 
The one good thing that happened was that Dr. Merton the sociologist father at 80 years old wrote to me afterwards and asked me for the reference to the davy crockett story so I met him.
 
The only good thing that came out of my poker playing was that I visit the gamblers book shop in vegas whenever i go there. artie bailed me out of a $1000 loss in college and he had to go to the credit union to do it.

Jun

17

the pickle ball top players have as much ability as their tennis counterparts. they all have excellent reflexes and volleys at net and seem as fast.

Ben Johns vs Tyson McGuffin - Men's Singles GOLD Match Highlights - PPA Atlanta Open 2021

Jun

17

Vic's twitter feed
 
i lost a case with the jury taking 5 minutes to decide unanimously against me.  next the policeman who arrested me sued me for causing 1/8 of his heart attack. my college roommate Wes Horton defended me but the tables were stacked. my experiences in court have been like that.
 
what brings this to mind is the Virginia Chinese mom had her comparison to the cultural revolution shortened to 1 minute. she's lucky she didn't try to complain as I did. picture of arrest forthcoming.
 
for once the core CPI created more cost for the borscht and blintzes at the camp than the unadjusted figures.
 
this was a very progressive day. the meme stocks went down, GME -39% and AMC -13%. the top feeders made money with yet another all time high and the public lost big. further, the news of big guys son was canceled apace despite the Chris Harrison comp.
 
the WAPO fact checkers lame attempt too suppress the actuality of the meeting of the big guys son was buried, and no shout outs to the warp speed's incredible efficacy compared to current regs and procedures was noted. all things considered, it was a very bull day.
 
to say nothing about yet another 60-day high for bonds and the leeway this gives the infrastructure union dream to proceed apace.  all we need is some slight diminution in the recovery and climate change and union activity  will be at an all-time high.
 
it is good that the big pharms that suppressed the news of the efficacy and readiness of the vaccine until 1 day after the election is being rewarded by "Prez plans to purchase 500 million does of Pfizer vaccine to donate to other countries". a reward, a scratching back.
 
in the good old days i made mistake of insisting that i get paid in fulll for all the finders fees I earned. what a terrible mistake. i let my competitiveness in racket sports carry over to negotiations. often i was offered  a 10% reduction and I refused and ended up with zero.

Jun

17

Fans of large numbers say that if a foot falls in the arctic circle it can be felt via causality all the way to sea level in Slab City. This is true if you believe in causality which is chain of events within the realm of large numbers. Causality is the principal that everything has a cause, and causes an action. Chain of events is a number of actions and their effect that result in a particular outcome. Large numbers is the law of the highly interactive world that as a sample size grows, anything can and will happen.
 
Look at yourself in a mirror. This concept makes miracles the rule rather than exception, but my story has more meaning to me.
  
Chain of events is as hardened as #12 steel. These are the links:
 
• In 1979, I beat Miss World with a tennis shoe that led, 35 years later, to meeting the #1 kingpin of the Slabs.
• After beating her with my left Converse in a Sports Illustrated exhibition at Okemos, MI, I asked her out to McDonalds.
• We made love in the back of my ’74 Chevy van. She murmured, ‘That’s my first orgasm. I can’t wait to tell my girlfriends.’ 
• The lady’s photo, actually Miss World Runner-Up from Dearborn, MI, and me holding the Chuck ran in a SI article as evidence.  
• In 2013, my property on the fringe of the Chocolate Mountain bombing range was pillaged and burned by Slab brassers. I chased them in my faithful Converse Chucks with a plastic squirt gun in my pocket. I settled in the Slabs, tracing my stolen articles. 
• The first stop was the Slab kingpin who didn’t take nor have the booty. He heard about Miss World, and asked for proof, and on seeing the photo asked for advice. I became his medical and legal counsel for two years from 2013-5. 
 
If you do not believe this then you don’t believe in cause-and-effect within the context of the law of large numbers to grasp how, mathematically, random brute force can overcome precise logic. This is exactly what happened when I raised the shoe that caused the orgasm that introduced me to the kingpin, and all the other blessings of Slab City.

Jun

16

June 8

One woke up as if in a nitemare and heard a former candidate saying "we have to keep climate from advancing more than 1 1/2 degrees."  next a shot across the bow from the camp: "it would be fine if interest rates were to increase. and don't let this hinder the infrastructure."

amid the 99% anti-former-president news on Bberg, one occasionally heard an unbiased and unrehearsed piece. the chief scientist at John Hopkin opined that those who were vaccinated had no reason to wear a mask as they weren't susceptible or transmissible.
 
June 9
 
i have found that all my interactions with police and judges where i have stood on principle have ended up in disasters for me. I am often asked what artie would say about police diversity interactions these days. i believe he would have been in favor of a civilian corps to monitor traffic infractions. But his student, Bill McCarty, author of Vice Cop and holding the record for number of arrests, believes that problem is that now the arrested are resisting it rather than peaceably acceding. presumably the hate of police in the air engendered by the agrarians who wish to destroy civility incentivizes the problem.
 
Delta airlines came within a whisker of removing me from the plane. There were an infinity of progressive things   that were endemic and carefully mentored but little attention to passenger comfort, e.g. gates 1/2 mile from baggage claim that was cryptic.
 
in earlier days, i would have insisted that it was ridiculous to be timed on the interval between eating and masking, that i insisted on being left alone. but then the stewardess had the captain announce a warning that fbi and red coats would be waiting for any violators.
 
i come back from chicago. susan knows i'm too cantankerous to survive (how close i came to being arrested) but that's another story. worst of all is wheeling my luggage. i cant do it and am too proud to call for a wheelchair. sure enuf when I reach the baggage floor, there's susan. she's gently telling  the delta policeman that they shouldn't explode my lonely bag — that  her husband is always late.

Jun

10

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/see-the-most-bizarre-and-beautiful-animal-eyes-on-earth/?fbclid=IwAR3rbQHW-wXitATV4Bamu1xzYbyEqyjGEooEqhbATQz6P3PBnEIcogqDVDg
A marvelous look at the wonders of nature and the miracle of animal eyes
…there is probably much more in nature - and certainly in markets as well- which our own eyes could perceive…..and something to share with younger traders in particular
And the incredible thing with miracles is that they happen, too…

Jun

10

After reading more about Professor Bejan, am looking at winning /losing streaks in a quite a new way.  
Not just in markets, tennis (Nadal /french open…), but also in politics of course.  Many yrs ago, I met a descendant of Oberst von Stauffenberg - the fellow who tried to assisinate Hitler back in '44.   And we spoke about why none of the assisinatiions (there were so many) work?  Now I know why.  Because Hitler was in a bull-market.

Jun

10

Diversity , native American. tv commercials at least 100 to 1 in favor of persons of color compared to steml very bull.

In honor of 4 great men, George, Stigler, Steve Stigler, James Lorie, and Arthur Niederhoffer, one will attend their 30th consecutive memorial in Chicago Monday, Susan is very concerned that I may not make it back. Do your best.

The movements of prices of markets have been compared to many things, ( I have not been remiss in this regard) , random walks, ball room dancing (darvis), football downs, sonata forms , traffic flows, etc, kindly add a few but one that I have not seen before that I believe is quite apt is bird watching. many minutes of waiting with nothing happening , then a seconds of a flurry as the birds come into sight, the best times for bird watching in markets (et) are 3.48 pm, 930 pm, 330 am . (these times must be tested)

Jun

10

Prices are as deceptive as any flora or fauna in nature. they use all the techniques that they naturally have from evolution as well as a million depletive traits that they have learned from nature and culture I shave about 3o feet from my price and trading setup. I have live prices in both places. it takes me about10 second to put down my razor and sprint to the trading. today was typical. I take on stroke of the razor down, and I not that sp is 2084.50. I know from past quantifications that before employment this is very bull. I rush to the trading setup. about 8 seconds. by the time I get to the trading room, price has risen to 4284.50 ( correction) to 4292 a typical happening . solution don't shave and spend every second at trading but nature knows i cant do this because of ageism and stroke. so its not possible for me t profit from deception. but one has to admire the exility of the deception which is recurring and just for me. other deceptions are just for you.

Sumo bout takes 60 seconds many twists turn, holds strategies in just 60 seconds. its very fast paced and compressed. like the prices in 3 seconds they move a world. what other events have as much exciting happening in a short time? 

You might think that the solution is to use limit orders but even in the off hours the high frequency boys beat you o every price. you mite think this unfair and that corrective actions to conquer the high frequency is appropriate. but if you try it, and are too obvious you could get fined 1000 times the amount a issue and have to beg not to go to jail. at a hearing concerning your attempt to even the paying field, you must give away all your rites and appeal to the mercy of the stat committee not to behead or hang you pair of pants . not tooo low and not tooo high. good for infrastructure and reflection of socialist programs past and future both sides of disunity can berate the other that the numbers show bad or good as the numbers were apparently set at a meeting at the camp de rigeur am short until 9 am

Okay I shave a pyrrhic victory so many if only if only I didn't have foot drop I could reached trading in 5 seconds. I made reasonable on my longs broke even at 4208 on my shorts. if only I ha done what I wanted to do. and I held all my longs at 4179 if only I am still angry. I try again at 1030

Jun

8

"The fact is that, except in rare cases, man is not a reasoning being. He is dominated by authority, and when the facts are not in accord with the view imposed by authority, so much the worse for the facts. They may and indeed must win in the long run; but in the meantime the world gropes needlessly in darkness and endures much suffering that might have been avoided."
William H. Bates  (Opthamologist).  1921 (New York)
Dr Bates was a very curious man, and an idealist, and he encouraged his patients to see whether they needed corrective lenses at all (or perhaps weaker lenses were sufficient.) The more general point for us is that we often don't test things in life or markets enough and maybe we don't even know what we ought to test.  Glad to be part of this group for markets though as large institutions often keep ppl in sort of a trance and hinder curiosity.
https://www.bettereyesightnow.com/blog/31377-what-we-believe-affects-what-we-see

May

25

Jack Cook writes:

UBS, Nomura Fined $450 Million For Bond Cartel Chatroom Collusion

Thursday, May 20, 2021 - 03:16 PM

As if having clueless prime brokers who just cost them hundreds of millions in losses wasn't enough, on Thursday morning Nomura and UBS, both of which were hammered by the Archegos implosion, were hit with another heft fine totaling 371 million euros ($452 million) by the European Union for colluding on euro government bond trading during the region’s sovereign debt crisis.

UBS was fined €172 million and Nomura will have to pay €129.6 million for participating in a traders’ cartel that swapped commercially sensitive information from 2007 to 2011 when eurozone bond yields soared; UniCredit was fined 69 million euros, according to Bloomberg.

Today's fines are the culmination of the EU spending the past decade probing how bank traders swapped information in chatrooms. At the same time it approved billions of euros in government support to keep many European lenders alive during the financial crisis.

The EU said traders on European government bond desks were in regular contact, mainly on Bloomberg terminal chatrooms, where they “informed and updated each other on their prices and volumes offered in the run-up” to eurozone government bond auctions “and the prices shown to their customers or to the market in general.”

Citigroup, RBS and JPMorgan were among five banks that agreed in 2019 to pay EU fines of over 1 billion euros for colluding on foreign-exchange trading strategies. Bank of America, Credit Suisse and Credit Agricole were fined about 28.5 million euros last month over chatrooms where traders swapped information on trading of U.S. supra-sovereign, sovereign and agency bonds. The EU is still investigating some banks for a related cartel.

It was “unacceptable, that in the middle of the financial crisis, when many financial institutions had to be rescued by public funding these investment banks colluded in this market at the expense of EU member states,” Margrethe Vestager, the EU’s antitrust chief, said in an emailed statement according to Bloomberg. Her criticism appears to have been aimed at two banks that weren’t fined. A Royal Bank of Scotland Group unit escaped a fine because it was the first to tell regulators. It received a U.K. bailout in 2008. Portigon, the successor bank to bailed-out and failed German lender WestLB, avoided a levy because it had no revenue last year.

Bank of America Corp. and Natixis SA participated in the cartel but weren’t fined because they had quit the cartel five years before the EU started its probe. While the euro-bond fines are far lower than previous EU cartels, they do allow the banks’ customers sue for damages if they can prove higher costs were passed on to them.

The news was not what UBS shareholders wanted to hear just weeks after the bank sheepishly revealed that it too had been hammered by Archegos, if not quite as badly as its cross-town rival; the bank said the fine could hurt second-quarter results by as much as $100 million. It’s considering an appeal and has “taken appropriate action years ago to mitigate and improve processes,” it said in a statement.

For its part, Nomura said the fine “relates to historic behavior” by two former employees “for an approximate 10-month period in 2011.” The bank “will consider all options, including an appeal” and “has introduced increased measures to ensure that we conduct our business with the highest levels of integrity,” it said in an emailed statement

Other banks were also unhappy: UniCredit “vigorously contests” the fine and will appeal to the EU courts, it said in a statement. The bank “maintains that the findings do not demonstrate any wrongdoing.”

Because since when do banks view criminal rigging of markets as a "wrongdoing."

Bud Conrad  writes

Thanks for the report.

The on-going fines sound big, but they keep coming. I don't have the numbers, but I guess that the profits are much larger than the fines. More importantly nobody goes to jail. The result is that the new crop comes along to repeat the scams and rigging. The banks pay huge bonuses. Nothing changes. The banks just consider modest fines as a cost of doing business, and the regulators often don't prosecute even what problems are revealed. 

The US SEC never investigated Madoff, even when they were given the scam on a silver platter. My interpretation after Clayton is that the SEC doesn't want to mess up markets by doing their job. They let CEO Musk openly lie and only slap him on the wrist, because they said they wouldn't want to hurt the shareholders. It was Madoff running out of money and turning himself in, to then die in jail. In the electronic world we have better tracking, but I think they will have better ways to cover up their processes.  Maybe Europe is better, but I doubt.

May

20

Covid

May 20, 2021 | Leave a Comment

Bo Keely writes:

Some will sneeze at my advice not to get the Covid vaccine. My credential is having studied epidemiology ad nauseum @ university, and being notified months before Covid came to USA that ‘the next war will not be nuclear but biological, and it will come from China.’ Coronavirus to me is a sham, just a strong cold. People don’t how many millions similar colds have been killing annually for centuries. The cold season was my sub-teaching heyday not because the regulars died, but they were laid up for days. So, my advice is not to get the vaccine. You get it, they will just release another strain demanding a new vaccine. It's a pre-planned money maker. 

Larry Williams writes

Amen

Vaccine is not a vaccine that stops you from getting anything; It only abates the symptoms. Ask the Yankees

May

20

Penny Brown writes:

So now Fauci comes out with saying that the real death rate might have been much higher - in the range of over 900,000 not the 560,000 number  - so that the cost benefit analysis looks a little better and he can't be faulted.

Steve Ellison  writes

900,000 seems way too high. The Occam's Razor starting point for an estimate would be 504,000, the increase in total US deaths in 2020 compared to 2019, as cited here:  https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2778234

May

20

Starting may 10 3 reds followed by two green and this week starting with may 17 , 3 reds in a row. Mr. David hand would say this is manifestation of randomness.

https://amazon.com/Improbability-Principle-Coincidences-Miracles-Events/dp/1427258821 I say it s not random, in predictive sense.

Nice rise in gold in last 20 days from 1748 t to 1870 

He who not be mentioned pint scout the similarity of herd like behavior of oxe, birds, cats, and humans to not having to scratch on a living for themselves. everything market move is stimulus bill. the more likely the more bull

Nice article in newspaper that may not be mentioned on suppression of science articles that are not double blind but have ample supportive evidence from social media platforms.

Its a collaborators birthday today and I'm taking her to a fish dinner and thru with mutton for a day.

My favorite fish dinner is at Sam's bush street petrale with some pancake anisette from 60 years ago

looks like I may having barnacles and whelk

Perhaps some turtle soup is left.

Thought for a minute it would be collaborators treat

There stands Mr. Sogi preventing me from ordering a full bottle of the expensive sauterne 

May

20

Camp meeting between infrastructure twins of opposite sex was particularly important as all American showing sighs of mortality.

Apparently the minutes were cryptic music must have distracted temporarily.

What's all the talk about tapering how will that engender the pickle ball infrastructure in Orange county.

This will be played at new facility in Orange country.

Very poor emphasis of slice at net rather than hard too.

A sendoff worthy of Patrick O Brian and Captain crozier and Professor Bejan https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uxDkffIKzCs

May

20

Finally got a reservation at Keenes.

May

20

Ordered take out mutton, only goat beats mutton for start of hard day.

Nock has a beaut passage about the birds outside of his window. they're fed by the housekeepers and they forgot or don't wish anymore to scratch up a living for themselves. Elmer Kelton has a similar passage about the cat in the bard versus the car in the house. the former

The cat in barn can spot ,neutralize a mouse from 5 feet away. the cat in the house always fed generously by Mary would wither away without her sufferance. with so many public getting almost as much or more, on the dole, will they ever be able or willing to get back real job

P.312 memoires of a superfluous man "every day I divert myself with watching outside my window, a concourse (cont) https://tl.gd/n_1srmqd3

May

20

Often come across situation where we have alternate forecasts of an event. for example today, a forecasts based on the close on Friday is bearish but a forecasts base on the logoboal is bullish. how to combine? a good source with many answers is.

youtube.com/watch?v=SEZwkbliJr8 was asked to attend sage annual meeting to discuss why not to invest in sage stock. learned from the interview. His ping pong game is poor. he hits with stiff arm. he admires wealth of nation in addition to graham books his best friend is gates.

Main lesson left out pay attention to service expenses ,save them in every conceivable way, including dividends of companies bought, and rates paid by companies owned, be strident cheerleaders for higher rates for yourself and other wealthy. bridge is good game. breaking the four minute mile in stocks. when will someone do a study of the price performance of stocks breaking 1000 for first time, like Ethereum, tesla, I tried to do this 60 years ago but haven't seen proper study since. A file including all deletions is necessary.

A nice retrospective list https://walletinvestor.com/stock-forecast/stocks-over-1000-dollars 

couldn't get a reservation at Keenes over weekend as it ran out of space for social distancing . so we will call that one a draw . and note that Lobogola lives 

 

May

20

A foundation: we have witnessed a strake of 3 big declines in a row followed by a streak of 2 big rises. such has happened only 6 times in last 10 http://years.it could be a while to digest the muttons keenes.

boston.com/news/local-news/2021/05/13/i-hate-the-letter-s-this-college-essay-on-the-loss-of-a-parent-helped-a-bridgewater-teen-into-harvard-and-went-viral?p1=hp_featurebox a key ..she operated a phone bank for Joe Biden 

May

20

As I am too decrepit and acerbic to drive myself I ordered an Uber for a quarter after.

I read in my favorite book "the time it never rained "that most ranchers prefer goat meet and mutton to lamb as it settles easier on the stomach.

May

8

Jack Cook writes:

Now I know why Mr. Softy owns so much farm land…

New research from Princeton University and Bloomberg confirms that renewables require 300 - 400 times more land than natural gas and nuclear plants

https://michaelshellenberger.substack.com/p/finally-they-admit-renewables-are

KK Law writes

The answer is yes and no. It could be somewhat offset if homeowners would let solar cells be installed on their roof tops. Also, the calculation is likely based on legacy solar cell technologies with low optical to electric efficiency. I am not against renewables but I will read anything with a grain of salt.

Henry Gifford writes:

The vast majority of house roofs are not well suited to solar because they are not at the optimal angle (latitude angle from horizontal), not at the optimal azimuth (South), and shaded. This does not stop anyone from installing them on roofs of homes.

A more suitable location is roofs of large stores and warehouses, where there is no shade, and they can be oriented optimally, and where a large need for electricity is located immediately below.

Another benefit of locating them on commercial buildings is that they offset purchase of electricity at higher (commercial) prices.

As warehouse roofs are generally not utilized for anything else, the panels arguably occupy zero space, which the study authors presumably thought of.

The reason so many panels are installed on house is politics - taxpayers paying for someone’s social statement. In New York City the subsidies have advanced the industry to where they are routinely installed flat or vertical, in the shade, or facing North (Columbus Ave & 100st, for example). I have never met anyone who likes solar panels enough to pay for them with their own money.

Whenever I see wind turbines the land under them is being used for farming or grazing or etc. Saying they use a lot of land is like saying planes use up all the land they fly over.

Henry Gifford

Stefan Jovanovich writes

HG's comments are, as always, wonderfully exact.  Our new roof that will go up this week will not have solar panels because no one in NC is willing to pay us for the waste of money; in California they were happy to.

May

7

I'll try a little against the batters on base.

Meeting at Camp Kinderland revised the numbers to augment calls for infrastructure for pickle ball et al? 

Replay based on appeal of previous play upholds appeal that she didn't go.

Relief pitcher comes in two minutes.

Apr

8

Patrick Boyle  writes:

The article states: "The offer from Washington reflects Biden’s broader goal of ending what officials have described as a race-to-the-bottom on global taxation that has deprived governments of revenue needed to fund basic services and investments." 

I was surprised to see that governments are suffering this deprivation and wondered what percentage of GDP is collected by various governments worldwide.  It would appear that the US Government collects 27.1% of GDP as taxes while spending 38.1% of GDP.  Singapore seems to get by with 14.1% of GDP in taxes.

Here is the full list on wikipedia:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_tax_revenue_to_GDP_ratio

Stefan Jovanovich  writes

As a economic denominator GDP has always troubled me since it pretends that there is an absolute equivalence between the Department of Education's paying for further studies of whole word instruction and parents' struggles to show their children that understanding the American language depends on recognizing the sounds of syllables and using the alphabet to write and read the notations of those sounds.  

In this particular example, the fiction of GDP is even worse: what the Federal Government spends on the 21st century's answer to phrenology counts as output because it is paid for in dollars.  What the parents do gets no accounting at all.

Assessing American public spending right now is tricky because this is the first time in our history as a nation that we have done what William James wanted and found a moral equivalence of war without the spending on arms and destruction.  There have been no net deaths in Trump's war against Covid; measured against the mortality rates for an average flu year, the casualty rate has been negative.  Instead of incurring debt to build ships, planes and other military assets that will be pure waste, that, unlike the capital equipment used in the "private" sector will have no residual value other than as scrap, this Federal war has spent it's money on direct transfers to people's bank accounts,  raises for hospital employees, and what has been effectively a continuation of the Census' part-time employment for official counting.  

There has been no wartime inflation because the largest part of the "spending" has been no spending at all but simply a non-recourse loan from the government to taxpayers that they have chosen to save.  

This really is different this time.

 

Patrick Boyle  writes:

I frequently see an argument from the left where any tax reduction is described as a government giveaway to the rich.  It is based on the idea that 100% of income belongs to the government and if you get to keep any at all is a gift.

It is one thing when a government increases taxes for their own benefit, but I don't think I can think of another example of a government encouraging other nations to tax its companies.  In fact trade wars are often fought over issues like this.  It is hard to view such a push from the new administration as anything other than a hatred of wealth generation.

Stefan Jovanovich  writes

f PB could offer a specific example of a "trade war" that became an actual war - one where the politicians spend money without limit and have their armies and navies work to kill people, it would help.  I looked through the list of conflicts for the past four centuries and I could not find one that was fought over tax rates and currency exchange terms.  As for how much money the U.S. government can tax, there is no limit.  The Constitution gave Congress total authority with the only limit being that direct taxes had to be apportioned by population among the states.   That was eliminated by the 16th amendment.

Apr

7

Practical booklet for children and parents - perhaps even some traders?
From Ray Gottlieb (retired eye doctor) - on learning, memory, imagination, attention, vision using the trampoline…..
As Goethe once said.   Theory is all grey, whereas life (and nature) is so colorful.
So are mkts and birds etc we would say..

Apr

5

Vix Part 2

April 5, 2021 | Leave a Comment

Michael Cook writes:

I know we tend to go into a stock market bullish period next week but I just got a Vix buy signal which generates from recent price behaviour of Vix index. Historically if it is going to work, (it doesn't always of course, what does?) it tends to start the move within a couple of bars.

Anonymous  writes

what is the green line? Also what is the time frame on each candle is it in the next day or 2 or next week or next month?

Michael Cook writes:

Daily bars, dark green signals utilize a 44 bar look back (so 2 months), light green are a 22 bar look back. 

Anoymous writes:

Ok what does the green signal line mean. Is it an indicator if so what. How are you supposed to be reading it pls.

Michael Cook writes:

This came about from [what I thought of as] a nice little bit of research by Andrew Thrasher who won the 2017 Charles Dow Award for his paper forecasting a volatility tsunami. https://cmtassociation.org/association/awards/charles-h-dow-award/

The two indicators are just two ways I mapped of looking at the dispersion of Vix.

In response to Gary's point, it isnt really that brave. It gets 1/4% to 1/2% of risk and I always have the expectation that at least half trades hit max loss or, if long options, expire at nil anyway!

Apr

5

Vix

April 5, 2021 | Leave a Comment

Anonymous writes:

Do you mind sharing what's needed to be read inferred in your svxy chart  for beginners.

Gary Phillips writes

nothing particularly esoteric here, other than the dotted yellow line is a level that has shown support in the past, and old support may become new resistance. in terms of constructal law it is an area that has evolved over time to allow greater access to the currents that flow through it.

Duncan Coker writes:

Feb of 2018 was quite a move for SVXY, down 90%.  SVXY is really a proxy for selling the term structure of VIX which is almost always in contango.(ie sell the distance month, cover after a month, rinse and repeat).  Except when the spot and front month explode upward and go into backwardation.  I did a study a while back showing backwardation of futures term structure is very bullish for SP500, but not that many trades.

Mar

31

Victor Niederhoffer  writes:

How many of the great inventions were made for profit  rather than government sponsored or the common good.    

Peter writes:

If war is government sponsored great inventions (in some cases for profit as well) - I believe you will cover most of the great advances in medicine, aerospace, computers, etc…add the Cold War space race and most of the items in my kitchen can be added to the invention list.

Stefan Jovanovich writes:

The grand achievement of the American integrated freight system - now the world's logistical model - was almost entirely a product of the mass stupidity we call the Civil War.

James Lackey writes:

Mr Stephan,

You've got to admit that pure speculation in rail paper traded in NYC was important.

Victor Niederhoffer  writes:

lets do some more justice to the influence of profits making on invention. I've only listed the ones where great industries were formed and there were patent fights. Newcomen– steam engine, John kay– flying shuttle,  Hargreaves– spinning jenny, James watt steam engine, Cartwright –power loom, Whitney– cotton gin and interchangeable parts, Trevithick road steam locomotive, Stephenson–railways. Isambard Kingdom Brunel - revolvers, colt, brunel steam ship, singer, home sewing machine, Bessemer steel processing, more telegraph, Edison lightbulb Benz internal combustion engine.

Mar

30

Maybe that resonates w you, too,
Savvy traders are good in paying attention how they spend their attention on, vs inexperienced traders (same most ordinary folks) who often get bamboozled by the media, the drama outside and so on.
In the movie Meriln,  the protagonist kept chasing the tail of Queen Mab - but eventually he realized that Queen Mab didn't have the power she proclaimed.    Right now, the wokes are a bit like emotional vampires- sorry for lack of better words- looking four pps attention and the joke is always on us - in trading and life.

Mar

28

Please consider for the SpecList

John Ridpath (1935 – March 23, 2021)

John Ridpath taught at York University in Toronto.

Like his close friend Allan Gotthelf and like George Reisman, John was reviled by his colleagues for his philosophical convictions but was over and over again voted as best teacher.

Like Alan Gotthelf and George Reisman, John was able to introduce three or four concepts in a lecture and students would come away with an understanding so clear that they would think them completely obvious.

John was formally a member of the Economics Department at York and formally taught Intellectual History but what he really taught was that a very few intellectually active, philosophically consistent people could change the course of history. His specialty was the amazing coincidence of a small group of men who created the philosophically consistent constitution of the United States, the only constitution ever that recognizes, and defends, the right of each person to have the freedom to better his or her own life. His Canadian(!) students loved it. I had the great good fortune of an open invitation to attend classes led by John during the ugly early 1970’s and, whenever I could escape work, I would go. It was like having the gas tank refilled.

Like the best of the self-interested, he was warm and generous to the point of shaking one’s head: How could someone be so much this way? For me, he was a wonderful mentor.

Mar

28

Hands

March 28, 2021 | Leave a Comment

There must be something about hands and brain - and common sense. and well-being.
most of my male friends who also work w their hands (e.g wood work or so, when they otherwise are traders) seem to have better grasp of simple things now….the hands stand for humanity as well. etc.
the wokes love to be in their head…a lot…in a virtual world.

Mar

27

Austin Lackey  writes:

Hey Specs,

Does anyone have any experience with the idea of tokenizing fungible assets/commodities? Idea being that you have a lot tracked asset that has the ability to be used in production and/or traded. It may trade hands 1,000 times before it's used, or used by the first buyer. The token coordinates with an exact lot in a warehouse or vault, and would be "burnt" if the owner ever took physical delivery. Has anyone seen (or worked with) anything similar to this, and what pitfalls do you see? I've seen JPMorgan is doing something similar with gold on their platform Quorum.

Laurel Kenner writes:

The chair's son is an expert in this subject. 

Mar

27

Pressure

March 27, 2021 | Leave a Comment

Victor Niederhoffer  writes:

What can the physics of pressure tell us about markets.  when a large accumulation of sel orders is directed at one point the force /area is great as it is in a triple top or double top or break thru the sogi/ what other elementary physical principles apply to markets. 

Zubin Al Genubi writes:

I can venture to say the idea of Gravity does NOT work in markets. Looking at a chart one gets the illusion of height or that gravity might effect prices but it is an illusion and a dangerous misleading illusion.

Peter DeBaz writes:

I'm not a physicist, so I'm sure that any understanding I have of physics would make a pro scoff.  Financial "momentum" could be an expression of newton's first law.  VN's original idea could be a restatement of f=ma, newton's second.  And finally, "value" trading could be a violation of the second law of thermodynamics, which is why, one could argue, that it never worked (lol). 

Andrew Aiken writes:

Black-Scholes-Merton option pricing formula is a direct restatement of the heat (diffusion) equation:

ut − ∆u = f(x, t)

and later refinements such as Heston, which allows for pricing “jumps”, are extensions of this equation with additional conditions.

(I prefer to price options in a way that doesn’t underprice tail risk)

Mar

11

youtube.com/watch?v=jfYHXL4p8GA the more stimulus bill. the more you lose in 2020 ,the more I pay.

Find out about the romantic life of the 3 greatest composers of the 19th century.

"Ex food and energy" 1.4% for hermits. Speaking of hermits a helpful hint from Forgotten Books
 
Forgotten Books https://forgottenbooks.com/en may be the answer to the rest of your free time from the distant past. It is online or paper books from 1920 or prior to the 1. everything's  groovy. perhaps a Barron Coleman day, everything is woke.

Adding insult to injury Roger Clemens
12 OF 16
Scooping up a piece of Piazza's shattered bat, Clemens tossed it in the direction of the former catcher, making it look like he was intentionally trying to hurt the guy—which was probably his plan. 

Beethoven trained a telescope on school so he could be sure that Karl towed the mark and that the school treated him well. Have often followed on those footsteps to make sure my kids were being treated well by their school. before that my father did the same for me " The principal always said to me " you should know better your father is a cop" the principal of my high school tried with all his mte to get me not admitted to Harvard. he ran a competitive tutoring service.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=jfYHXL4p8GA the more stimulus bill. the more you lose in 2020 ,the more I pay.

Mar

2

Book Recco

March 2, 2021 | Leave a Comment

Gary Boddicker  writes:

I recently picked up https://www.amazon.com/Cattle-Kingdom-Hidden-History-Cowboy/dp/0544369963 on a recommendation from Ryan Holiday’s excellent reading newsletter: https://ryanholiday.us1.list-manage.com/track/click?u=dcd3642d86121fbcaa9914228&id=03b4ecb2d5&e=879beeec35 

Panoramic history of what could be America’s first nationwide industry with entrepreneurs and risk takers for days: the decimation of the buffalo, cow town stock yard developments,  “assembly line” manufacturing predating Mr.Ford and his automobiles, refrigerated rail cars, “dead meat” exports to Europe, Delmonico’s, a great big commodity speculative bubble fueled in part by global investors in the US industry…plus the real skinny on life as a cowboy, cattle drive misery, gunfights (or the lack thereof)… very well written, engaging tale, with characters galore. I’m halfway through and it’s not easily put down. Highly recommend. 

Stefan Jovanovich writes:

If GB's review were on Amazon, it would join many others.  Mine would be tucked away at the bottom and would probably be rejected for being unkind to authors …..

Knowlton has written a lazy book.  To think that the beef ranching, stockyard and wholesale butchering trades were "America’s first nationwide industry" you have to know less than nothing about American history.  Mr. Swift Cowboys and cattle drives were a minor adjunct to a secondary business for the railroads.  They disappeared as soon as the spur lines were built out.  There is also some pure crap: "A direct link connects vigilante justice on the open range and U.S. involvement in Vietnam." I recommend a few minutes reading about the SRL as an emetic.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swift_Refrigerator_Line

 

Gary Boddicker  writes:

Stephan- in fairness to the “lazy” book, there is a good discussion of the SRL development you highlight including Swift’s fight with the rail lines, who preferred perpetuating the more lucrative live cattle shipping they had been enjoying, and his ultimate victory. The “emetic” was included. In fact, the major railroad’s market hold had to be “overcome” at a couple junctures in the book…usually by utilizing smaller competitors. 
The discussion of Swift’s further battle to get “refrigerated meat” accepted by East Coast butchers and consumers reminded me of my formative years when my father was fighting a similar war to get IBP’s innovative “boxed beef” accepted in the same protected, unionized,”mobbed up,” markets:  
https://www.encyclopedia.com/social-sciences-and-law/economics-business-and-labor/businesses-and-occupations/ibp-inc
As to “nationwide,” That wasn’t the author’s claim, but my hyperbole. It’s possible I spent too many Saturday mornings in Denison packing houses, Sioux City stockyards “smells like money”, and Plainview feedlots and I was willing to give “Beef” an outsized designation having stumbled across this history. Still have a little romance in my heart for that tough industry, its people, and the western geography. ;) Also love a good steak. 
Vietnam? No clue. Haven’t read that yet.  Agree that smells like BS more than napalm smells like victory. Does he mention Robert Duvall’s hat and the Air Cav?
 

Stefan Jovanovich  writes:

Thx, GB.  I am being unfair.  And I have no good excuse.  The author's first book about the Florida land rush bugged me because the author made a reach to compare that episode with the 2008/9 bubble without regard to their relative magnitudes.  (If any real estate bust in the 1920s was comparable, it was Chicago's).  So, reading your comments, I thought "here we go again".  Flipping through electronic pages and using my own version of the Hitler test (bad thinking always gets to some mention of the Fuhrer or Viet-Nam) is not reading or thinking or even vigilante literary justice.  Time once again to wash out my smart aleck mouth with a mea culpa
 
 

Gary Boddicker  writes:

No worries Stefan, always enjoy your perspective…also, based on past posts,  I am quite certain you’ve forgotten more of American History than I’ve ever known. I hope to continue to learn from you

Mar

2

If ones decomposes the driver of value or growth what will find is that it is all about price. the fundamentals change very slow and by small amounts. here is a good academic paper that analyzes this link: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2083166

In other words, value was driven mainly by long-term (>5years) price mean-reversion. the reason for the underperformance over the last decade(s) is that long-term price reversals have not worked. 
this paper as well https://www.q-group.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Linnainmaa-Dissecting-Factors.pdf 

Feb

28

Fed Model

February 28, 2021 | Leave a Comment

Looking at the 10year bond rates I see a roughly 1.5% yield and another 0.9% from rolling down the yield curve. Total carry ~2.4%

If you adjust that to match equity volatility you get multiplier of 2. So on vol/risk/duration adjusted basis bonds have 4.8% yield
Looking at the sp500 fwd earnings yield I see it stands at 4.5%
Bonds have become again an equity competitor
Perhaps this is the start of the move of tectonic plates

Feb

15

Three Point

February 15, 2021 | Leave a Comment

Victor Niederhoffer writes:

Phil Musia in the post has an article about  how the three point shot which has gone up to 80 per game from 20 years ago is ruining the basketball game.  What aspects of markets have changed for the worse in the last 20 years? 

Penny Brown writes:

What's worse?  The abandonment of the up tick rule for shoring.

Feb

11

Alex Castaldo writes:

what does dr burry mean by his btc mining tweet today

(20) Cassandra on Twitter: "70% of $BTC is mined in sanctioned countries, China, Iran, Russia. Crypto is in a race - add enough reputable agents of commerce to counter and overcome the inevitable coordinated actions of the ECB/BoJ/Fed/IMF/WorldBank-level powers-that-be to crush it. https://t.co/glYdmeTJ4g." / Twitter

70% of $BTC is mined in sanctioned countries, China, Iran, Russia. Crypto is in a race - add enough reputable agents of commerce to counter and overcome the inevitable coordinated actions of the ECB/BoJ/Fed/IMF/WorldBank-level powers-that-be to crush it. 

Pete Earle writes:

He's saying that BTC needs to grow its network and become a more compelling medium of exchange in order to survive the likely outcome of the governments and monetary authorities in China and Russia (Iran?) putting severe criminal penalties on its mining and usage. Meh. 

Does not follow that if mining were quashed in those countries other miners elsewhere wouldn't fill the gap, but it would be a bumpy ride and the price would almost definitely suffer. (There's also the remote chance that in the tumult that would follow miners going offline there could be a 51% attack.) But it strikes me that when an illicit enterprise becomes big enough (gambling, marijuana, etc.) governments would rather become privileged providers and gatekeepers than suppressors. 

Jayson Pifer writes:

Burry seems to be missing that cheap electricity wins.  It's not a matter of simply adding reputable agents when they will not be able to scale to compete with Chinese miners.  Not to mention that those sanctioned countries are incentivized to mine heavily and therefore keep the security of the network high.  I don't really see this changing.

I'm curious what sort of coordinated actions he supposes will be taken by the power-that-be.  For the foreseeable future it appears to be concurrent debasement of currencies to the benefit of cryptos.

I forget who on the list was running a mining operation, the information shared was valuable.  Perhaps we could get some recent insight.

Jan

30

Niches

January 30, 2021 | Leave a Comment

Zubin Al writes: 

At a surf break, the waves tend to focus and break in a small area ideal for taking off in a surfboard.  In a normal surf line up where the surfers wait for waves people crowd up, and informally queue up for their turn at the wave. However, 20% of the surfers usually get 80% of the waves.  These are the top feeders.  

I've learned how to foil surf on hydrofoils that fly above the water.  The take off spot is in a different spot that where the board surfers drop in, and the high speed and efficiency of the foil allow riding in places where the board riders don't and can't ride.  I can also ride breaks and wave conditions where board riders cannot and don't want to ride.  After close to 60 years surfing, its opened up a whole new world of surfing for me.  Due to the extreme difficulty learning to foil, and the very high expense of the equipment, there are only a handful of foil surfers around.  We reap uncrowded waves and   thrilling high speed rides flying above the water.  

In the ecology of the market, there are many niches.  Props to the GME traders who found a new niche.  In the law of changing cycles,though, the top feeders and brokers move to protect their niche in the greater picture of the market. 

The question is whether the de leveraging and higher margins and deposits for brokers in that niche will spread and affect the general market bringing it down a notch.

One theory I've had is that big waves correlate with high volatility.  Its pure superstition.  Under my theory, wive big waves down this weekend and with big waves possible Wednesday and Thursday market vol will be up midweek.  This is pure mumbo, never tested and just for fun.

 

Jeff Watsurf writes: 

I started foil surfing a few years ago, using a kite. A total game changer in my humble opinion.

Jan

22

Arc Sine Law

January 22, 2021 | Leave a Comment

50's gravitational effect in  effect today, together with the tendency toward new highs to continue.  Hard to believe but that  is what creates the wall of worry bull markets climb.

Jan

22

Learn

January 22, 2021 | Leave a Comment

Victor Niederhoffer  writes:

What can we learn and what insights do the football  games and quan regularities has to teach us about markets. I often feel that the 50 years zone is  transition to likely touchdown as is the 80 to 100 level the redone where  it is likely to go to 100.

Eric Lindell   writes:

I've found that general knowledge of shenanigans can be helpful. Consider deflategate, where Tom Brady/Patriots were accused of using deflated footballs.

Careful review of highlight reel shows intentionally missed passes by the Colts, which even the announcer noticed.

Deflated footballs were used as a minor cheating scandal to conceal a much more serious one. They were also used to create the illusion that the Colts were resisting Patriots' attempt to cheat.

It was partly because Brady and concomitant shenanigans moved to the Buccaneers that I predicted a good season for them. I still do.

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