Jun

20

quote of day of extreme relevance: "A hundred years of faster and bigger transport has kept up and intensified this bombardment of every country by foreign species brought accidentally or on purpose by vessel and by air and also over land from that used to be isolated… the real thing is that we are living in a period of the world's history when the mingling of thousands of kinds of organisms from different parts of the world is setting up terrific dislocations in nature. We are seeing huge changes in the natural population balances of the world." Elton, 1958. The Ecology of Invasion by Animals and Plants. the key to crypto moves.
 
A reader expands:
 
Chair has pointed to N. Shigesada's work on Biological Invasions. The three phases before saturation are covered on p. 27 with many examples from plants, insects and humans for each.
 
A key concept is the Range Distance. Consider a new species, for example the Muskrat unknown in Europe before 1905. In 1905 five muskrats escaped from a farm near Prague; in the next 20 years they spread through all of Germany and Austria-Hungary in a pattern of roughly concentric circles on a map. The range  distance is defined as the square root of the occupied area divided by sqrt(pi). (there are also some other formulas for cases of highly non-concentric spread).
 
How does the Range Distance look like when plotted against time? There are 3 patterns that occur again and again.
 
In the initial establishment phase the range distance shows no increase. After this the Expansion Phase begins.
 
In the simplest and most common case Type 1, it shows linear growth. In the case of the muskrat it is pretty remarkable how close the observations come to a straight line. In the next phase the Saturation Phase the curve levels off and becomes a horizontal straight line.
 
Type 2 called biphasic expansion shows a slow initial linear spread, followed by linear spread at a higher rate. This was seen for the Himalyan thar, the European Starling and European finch, and the Japanese beetle.
 
Type 3 expansion shows a slope constantly increasing over time, resulting in an exponential looking curve. Nevertheless even in this case the Saturation phase follows and the slope decreases to zero. I assume the expansion of cryptocurrencies may be of the Type3 although I have never seen it drawn.
 
There are various explanations for these phases (for example why is there an Establishment Phase with no growth at all) that I will skip over for now. Hope this clarifies a few things. 

Mar

27

 It looks like Slovenia may be the next EMU member up for financial guacamole. Those indicating that the recent troubles of the financial problems in Cyprus, where a euro is worth exactly what the IMF decrees it to be worth and no more and no less, but not necessarily the same as a euro anywhere else in the EMU, were the same who said that the crisis in Greece was limited to Greece, and then that the crisis in Spain was different from Greece so there was no cause for concern. Then it became the crisis in Italy is not the same as that in Spain, which wasn't the same as that in Greece, and therefore there is no need for concern. I'll leave the upcoming problems in France alone for the moment, as it appears that Slovenia is next. (My apologies if this sounds like a financial version of Chad Gadya, but as the saying goes, "If the shoe fits…")

At some point, it's going to hit someone in the IMF/EMU/ECB Troika that it would be a lot less expensive to arrange for an orderly withdrawal of these countries from the EMU than trying to preserve the euro in its current form. I say this as someone for whom foreign exchange isn't a strong suit. It just seems self-evident to me. What am I missing here?

Victor Niederhoffer writes: 

What you are missing is that the troika joined by the present writer's country is not interested in profits. Consult the theory of public choice in the micro-economics book I gave you. The people in Brussels…. my the food is good, the women are Marilyn Monroe when they don't wear pants, and the titles of commissioner, governor, and such and the perks and the employees, and the beholden consultants and suppliers, why life is good with their trillions in the hip to maintain the boat at an even keel.

Apr

4

 This afternoon I went to an estate sale close to where I live. I have to say that I do not feel at ease entering the home of someone who very likely died only a few days before. I feel it's violating the privacy of the person. I feel like it's accessing his or her intimate secrets through the objects, the books, the souvenirs, the mementos, the medicines, even the food which is still in the fridge.

You are able to assess a lot about this person: hobbies, culture, interests, and financial status. Everything is left as it was the day before his death. Everything has a price and a ticket. You buy her life. In this case it was a navy officer who died. I walked through the rooms willing to respect the man and his home. I was immersed in his life: the pictures at the Naval Academy, the flight jacket, his wife's wedding dress, and the bowling league prize. He's gone now. In a few hours his life will be sold.

I came across a book: Watch Officer's Guide, issued in 1956. He must have been young at the time. As a naval officer I was immediately attracted by the book and bought it for $9. I started to read it. After the introduction it reported:

"It is not humanly possible to be letter perfect in everything that may concern an officer of the deck. The superior watch officer, however, is always ready for any situation that may arise and, for that reason, the most important faculty to be cultivated is forehandedness. Always look ahead, a minute, an hour, or a day, and make it to your pride never to be caught unprepared. Rehearse mentally the action you would take in the event of a fire, a man overboard, a steering failure, or any other serious casualty.

"Eternal vigilance is the price of safety. [He must] observe intelligently all that comes within his vision, both outside and inside the ship, but his vigilance must extend beyond this. He must cultivate the faculty of foreseeing situations, as well as seeing them. The same type of mental lethargy which will permit an officer of the deck to stand abreast a lighted gangway after sunrise _ will fail to detect in time an incipient collision.

"On a darkened destroyer in high-speed work at night only essentials count and you must key your mind to its keenest pitch. Finally, he must have technical knowledge of his job. He must know the relative importance of his many responsibilities. He must have experience."

I went back with memory to the time when I served onboard ships as officer of the deck, and I recognized myself in these words of wisdom. "Still valid at sea after quite a few decades." Then I left his home with an undefined sense of sadness.

Thanks, old man, for the time spent together today.

From Victor Hrehorovich:

The Watch Officer's Guide applies to many officers of the deck. The "deck" is everywhere; everywhere an officer is given responsibility to make sure that unforeseen events are kept from becoming catastrophes. They are very applicable to the medical profession! Thanks for sharing these thoughts with me. I will incorporate them in my upcoming address to our first graduating class. 

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