February - 2021
Sunday
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
1
 S&P +58.50
 USB +0.09
2
 S&P +57.00
 USB -0.13
3
 S&P +14.25
 USB -0.26
4
 S&P +43.00
 USB -0.14
5
 S&P +15.80
 USB -0.24
6
7
8
 S&P +30.25
 USB +0.06
9
 S&P +2.00
 USB -0.03
10
 S&P +1.00
 USB +0.20
11
 S&P +8.90
 USB -0.15
12
 S&P +23.00
 USB -1.11
13
14
15
16
 S&P -3.50
 USB -2.05
17
 S&P -1.25
 USB +0.21
18
 S&P -17.25
 USB -0.03
19
 S&P -6.50
 USB -1.13
20
21
22
 S&P -29.50
 USB -0.23
23
 S&P +1.00
 USB +0.06
24
 S&P +49.00
 USB -0.15
25
 S&P -91.00
 USB -1.18
26
27
28

Feb

26

Tweets-Feb/26/2021

February 26, 2021 | Leave a Comment

Hello Mr. Sogi I'm delighted that you're doing some evening surfing..is their disconsolate or hope among your colleagues in Japan?

An ecological fact. " mosquitos have amplifiers on them".

The NEW Rotisserie-style Chicken Bites are perfect alone or any way you want to eat them. Finally, unbreaded, tender, juicy chicken that doesn’t need anything else to stand out. #HappyTastesGood

 

470.3 the new ads of the sages firm, not as "humorous" as Geiogo ads.

"At least we were able to press stocks back up and out supporters are coming back " heard with eggs benedict as former chairman shook their heads/ "" but unless we get the bonds above 16000, well look bad".

google.com/search?q=zillow+stock+price&oq=zillow+stock+price&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i20i131i263i433j0l8.16159j1j4&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8 great move to buy homes direct and price action good but not enough diversity.

Feb

26

Tweets-Feb/24/2021

February 26, 2021 | Leave a Comment

A note passed to chance gardener before hearings., somethings not rite? you cant just support the them. "Show them your force" captain Aubrey.

What tom would whisper to chance gardener " we're in over our head . better simplify. "" interrupt eggs benedict breakfast with woke counterpart? 

Professor Biden can you catch a basketball with chop sticks? The professor matriculated at mit hoping to play on the basketball team. but he couldn't afford the price of sneakers and mit policy prohibited any financial aid to athletes.

Bonds creeping up from 16000 handle, lunch interrupted in fed dining hall? A visit with Pres adviser? what will happen to all the earmarks and pork in stimulus bill? The more woke the more bull.

One can pretend to see all and be pleased that bonds are back in 16000 handle proving that a man who doesn't know gnp for the last quarter and has no training in e economics can not jolly bonds to ever higher levels by emphasizing that the stimulus is needed. 

Recall that on a one day binary forecast the red days are most bull for Sp ( as documented on Tues feb23 video apologies for the tec glitches on Feb 24 video but what was said about frog and constructal numbers and Japanese resilience is timeless despite my lapses. 

Feb

24

Tweets-Feb/23/2021

February 24, 2021 | Leave a Comment

There stands Mr. Sogi teetering amid the waves will the Nikke tide be helpful?

The Japanese never give up. the bull market remains intact.

Helllo Dr. bejan. have the yellowed you to see any basketball lately. 

After 3 bad years in early 2000's QQQ outperformed SPY by a large amount. this chart is referred to in our video giving up dates of performance of best stocks versus worst. growth wins out. good thing to do is to replace spider with qqq I think 

Welcome back to Dr Castaldo from Italy after 5 months with his parents. the chart and data is his handiwork.  

youtube.com/watch?v=acVLNQG_YVo Nikkei never surrender, Nasdaq versus spider.

Insights into startling offensive behavior, gestalt psychology, the Nikkei never surrendering a 30000, growth versus value over 20 years, very woke day good for market, and prediction as to when 39000 will be breached.

Must have been some heavy broker would have liquidated you when margin reduced to 3000.. but never complain you would have had 2 minutes to get a bank wire to them at 940.

Feb

24

Tweets-Feb/22/2021

February 24, 2021 | Leave a Comment

youtube.com/watch?v=PmIh7JtzaYM the trickster.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=w8uL-lxVpwE&feature=youtu.be 

Video contains constructal sig of Nikkei, binary splits predicting SP next day, results of buying the best, shout out to everchanging cycles, predictions meals for lifetime.

In their quiet and respectful way, Nikkei refuses to sink below 30000. also a lagniappe the absurdity of sheller analysis, no interest rates, 10 years  moving averages as absurd predictor of current earnings, part hole correlations, always bearish non wonder won the prize.

Feb

21

what is a Recent

February 21, 2021 | Leave a Comment

Big AI writes:

from 2005 (may have been posted already):

Does Trend Following Work on Stocks?

Cole Wilcox, Managing Partner Director of Research & Trading Blackstar 

Funds, LLC

Eric Crittenden, Blackstar Funds, LLC

https://www.cis.upenn.edu/~mkearns/finread/trend.pdf

Over the years many commodity trading advisors, proprietary traders,

and global macro hedge funds have successfully applied various trend

following methods to profitably trade in global futures markets. Very

little research, however, has been published regarding trend following

strategies applied to stocks. Is it reasonable to assume that trend

following works on futures but not stocks? We decided to put a long

only trend following strategy to the test by running it against a

comprehensive database of U.S. stocks that have been adjusted for

corporate actions. Delisted companies were included to account for

survivorship bias. Realistic transaction cost estimates (slippage &

commission) were applied. Liquidity filters were used to limit

hypothetical trading to only stocks that would have been liquid enough

to trade, at the time of the trade. Coverage included 24,000+

securities spanning 22 years. The empirical results strongly suggest

that trend following on stocks does offer a positive mathematical

expectancy, an essential building block of an effective investing or

trading system.

Jared Albert  writes:

This is obviously the hardest(or most expensive) part of a study like this:

<<<Data Integrity Data Coverage The database used included 24,000+ individual securities from the NYSE, AMEX & NASDAQ exchanges. Coverage spanned from January-1983 to December-2004. 

Survivorship bias The database used for this project included historical data for all stocks that were delisted at some point between 1983 and 2004. Slightly more than half of the database is comprised of delisted stocks. 

Corporate actions All stock prices were proportionately back adjusted for corporate actions, including cash dividends, splits, mergers, spin-offs, stock dividends, reverse splits, etc. Realistic investable universe A minimum stock price filter was used to avoid penny stocks7 . 

A minimum daily liquidity filter was used to avoid stocks that would not have been liquid enough to generate realistic historical results from. Both filters were evaluated for every stock and for every day of history in the database, mimicking how results would have appeared in real time.>>>

The data vendor they used has these prices listed:

PowerST will run on any Windows computer.

Cost:

The cost of PowerST is:

Initial Purchase: $25,000

Monthly Maintenance: $1,000

Calculation Engine Source Code: $100,000

Does anyone know of an economical source for at least merger and delisted data is accounted for:)?

This site has delisted symbols so long as they are not reused ex:http://www.eoddata.com/StockQuote/NYSE/LEH.htm 

Feb

21

Tweets-Feb/21/2021

February 21, 2021 | Leave a Comment

A good read for publics stranded in last year's habitats.

coreknowledge.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/CKSci_G3_U3_Habitats-and-Change_SR.pdf 

It is distressing to have a 2007 article posted when I wouldn't and couldn't talk to the author because of positions. I held that would have been fodder for the adversaries. I have learned my lessons in 1997 and not sold put since because of the conspiracies among the 2 or three market markers and their control of the margins required and the high bid ask spreads I of 100% or so in getting out of positions before expiration my injunction never short anything has deep resilience. I try to maintain a dignified and helpful posting and it is unfortunate to be greeted by miscreants who bear a grievance against me.

The older we get, the thinner the skin around the privates. However, I suffered a stroke 3 years ago, and my ability to play, piano, racket sports and type is grossly and egregiously curtailed.

It's good to know that I have so many friends on this list. I try. I would recommend that all look at daily speculations com for some fine work on the buying the best companies. It's all on the spec list. To get on spec list send me request with your email.

Feb

21

Tweets-Feb/20/2021

February 21, 2021 | Leave a Comment

I will offer a prize money of $1500 to the best study of the performance of buying the best performing individual stocks in a period. Do take account of survivor bias. I make the same offer to the spec list bu gramercy keeps preventing me from sending it.

Feb

21

Tweets-Feb/19/2021

February 21, 2021 | Leave a Comment

As octopus as sentient s humans mite be worthwhile to consider reducing consumption of octopus.

Feb

21

Tweets-Feb/18/2021

February 21, 2021 | Leave a Comment

Round numbers beached from upside. Nikkei 30000 , SP3900… will the non-quarterly expiration breach numbers from downside? NY numbers guess yes.

studio.youtube.com/video/lu9ij58S3wU/edit meals for a life time in this. buying momentum, in individual stocks, bitcoin breaking thru , deception galora in opens, the octopus as master of deception, importance of constructal numbers at all.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=Wos8kouz810 better to study this for market insights than 90% of market books.

Feb

21

Tweets-Feb/17/2021

February 21, 2021 | Leave a Comment

The top trophic levels against new and existing entrants to lowest, level "The coordinated effort by Wall Street, the media, and Big Tech to crash meme stocks’ meteoric rise is just one of many that "make pubic lose so much more than they have rite to lose" zero hedge.

 https://youtube.com/watch?v=92nG8EfzsVI Nadal loses to wristy opponent. How not to play tennis for both.

How not to trade with wristy trades like tsitsipas shots. Sporadic rises like tsisspiw.

Feb

16

Tweets-Feb/16/2021

February 16, 2021 | Leave a Comment

Bitcoin having breached the Sogi level of 50000 , and Nikkei breaching 30000 , everything in consilience. my bearish forecast established at 3952.50 become less unlikely.

Guaranteed to happy. the more an area prospers the greater the hammer to reduce pursuit of happiness. 

Wolfies delicates. significance covered in Sennett Niederhoffer podcast today at 530pm est today.

Guaranteed to happen white shoe firm offers its expertise to 8 million new investors as regulatory agencies investigate the ephemeral profits before buying banned.

The way I heard it. ruby and grandparents move form Katz to Wolfies in winter. 

Feb

15

Last Train

February 15, 2021 | Leave a Comment

Victor Niederhoffer writes:

To paradise: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=henry+flagler+last+train+to+paradise&crid=2K4P028N815Z3&sprefix=

train+to+paradise+henry%2Caps%2C166&ref=nb_sb_ss_ts-doa-p_1_23   tells the story of a great adventures and benefactor of  Florida and the country  written in 20002 without the cancel  culture exerting too much of these influence. highly regomme3nde and inspiring as to what an man of integrity and the books  should aspire to.

Jeffery Watson writes:

That book is a must read for anyone who loves the history of Florida. 

Tim Melvin writes:

The authors fiction books set in Florida are also outstanding reads.

Feb

15

Tweets-Feb/15/2021

February 15, 2021 | Leave a Comment

Many construtal goals achieved today Nikkei 30000, crude 60000, bonds 16500 - /

I'll take the plunge and reduce all my longs to 0%.. also a sogi at 3950, only waiting for bitcoins 50000 to complete harmonization. but you cant have everything SP up about 10 days in row.

Mr Ag trades notes that I've achieved more follower today than in the past 2 years combined.. " why" algo must have finally seen my repeated posts " the more woke we were the more bullish it is".

even Jim Lorie once closed out his longs in early 1987. He sold at 320 sp.. he held not long until SP 450 until October 19/1987 then when baker did it and SP swooned to 320 again he covered his shorts alngnd vowed never to remain less than 200%.

Back lash against Florida to ban travel so as not to let certain states of another color look bad. Reminds me of Hobo keeley said " I should pay him to be around me because he's the only person that makes me look good in comparison.

Grandfather's martin's working as Irving berlin's accountant before trading with the boy wonder as I hold shorts.

Feb

15

Three Point

February 15, 2021 | Leave a Comment

Victor Niederhoffer writes:

Phil Musia in the post has an article about  how the three point shot which has gone up to 80 per game from 20 years ago is ruining the basketball game.  What aspects of markets have changed for the worse in the last 20 years? 

Penny Brown writes:

What's worse?  The abandonment of the up tick rule for shoring.

Feb

15

Tweets-Feb/13/2021

February 15, 2021 | Leave a Comment

Nobody aske me but there is more and more buzz about interest rates going up . expect the 165 handle on Monday.

Example of Florida and its heroes receiving "short stick " these days https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_Flagler 

One is calling for a substantial decline in sp starting in a few days. what would be a good place to maintains assets in for the duration rather than shorting sp which is ruinous, deathly, and against the drift.

Nobody asked me but sessile predators ,( carnivores e.g) get more prey per effort t than mobile predators. would the same apply to markets?

Cattle trader who is usually right on point calls for a crash?? that's very dangerous and ruinous. so many I know have called for same and ended in the hoosegow. Be very careful with a exact non-delphic prediction like that. 

2 thins. Please remember not to send me things that could be construed as non- woke. like the shout that Florida mentons are becoming increasingly woke. 2 what is Mr. Wallon lately my most sensible followed.

 

Feb

15

Tweets-Feb/12/2021

February 15, 2021 | Leave a Comment

Slowly but surely the bonds set one 6 month minimum after another ( not without giving longs in bonds some hope).

The showboating and wasted energy and distractions with the antis of Kyrgios was the cause of the loss to them. Its a good model for what not to do with your trades. slow but steady and not boasting is the key. 

Feb

11

Alex Castaldo writes:

what does dr burry mean by his btc mining tweet today

(20) Cassandra on Twitter: "70% of $BTC is mined in sanctioned countries, China, Iran, Russia. Crypto is in a race - add enough reputable agents of commerce to counter and overcome the inevitable coordinated actions of the ECB/BoJ/Fed/IMF/WorldBank-level powers-that-be to crush it. https://t.co/glYdmeTJ4g." / Twitter

70% of $BTC is mined in sanctioned countries, China, Iran, Russia. Crypto is in a race - add enough reputable agents of commerce to counter and overcome the inevitable coordinated actions of the ECB/BoJ/Fed/IMF/WorldBank-level powers-that-be to crush it. 

Pete Earle writes:

He's saying that BTC needs to grow its network and become a more compelling medium of exchange in order to survive the likely outcome of the governments and monetary authorities in China and Russia (Iran?) putting severe criminal penalties on its mining and usage. Meh. 

Does not follow that if mining were quashed in those countries other miners elsewhere wouldn't fill the gap, but it would be a bumpy ride and the price would almost definitely suffer. (There's also the remote chance that in the tumult that would follow miners going offline there could be a 51% attack.) But it strikes me that when an illicit enterprise becomes big enough (gambling, marijuana, etc.) governments would rather become privileged providers and gatekeepers than suppressors. 

Jayson Pifer writes:

Burry seems to be missing that cheap electricity wins.  It's not a matter of simply adding reputable agents when they will not be able to scale to compete with Chinese miners.  Not to mention that those sanctioned countries are incentivized to mine heavily and therefore keep the security of the network high.  I don't really see this changing.

I'm curious what sort of coordinated actions he supposes will be taken by the power-that-be.  For the foreseeable future it appears to be concurrent debasement of currencies to the benefit of cryptos.

I forget who on the list was running a mining operation, the information shared was valuable.  Perhaps we could get some recent insight.

Feb

11

Tweets-Feb/11/2021

February 11, 2021 | Leave a Comment

So far this month start out with a green ,then 4 yellows in a row. then green yellow green. Somehow SP gone up 8 days in a row.

You have to hand it to chance gardener. He's been consistently talking about how employment is a long way down from where it should be including before the election and yesterday.. so far I've seen no talk about replacing him. 

https://foxnews.com/us/fort-worth-texas-vehicle-freeway-crash-fatalities-injuries nobody asked me but all over we are getting reports of unusually cold climate conditions, never happened in fort worth"  Nobody asked me but the horde of new investors opened by Robin Hood and their ilk is a boo for the infra structure as they will pay inordinate bid asked spreads and concentrate their volume near the highs, and give shrewd brokers a chance to margin them into oblivion.

Nobody asked me but the so by some measures has gone up 8 days in a row that's neutral but for sure it has gone up 8 two days in a row. that  happened 8 times since 2011 . slightly neutral for the two day at the close of SP to be up it would have to close at 4pm est at 3909. I use the 415 as close.

Nobody aske me but in addition to foregoing notifying me of non-work things, readers should forego sending me things about global cooling as presumably the powers that be will punish all by taking away followed. I has lost most than 1000 followers in past 2 months.

Thank you as my venerable father used to say " I will be the healthiest person 6 feet under"

Bill was a great marital arts man practiced boxing every day, made more than 8000 arrests.( may have been a record) he would punch himself on head hard a nd then asked al the people I the bar whether they wished to go peacefully. And thus the selfish price end sup by 0.25 and stays within a 0.50 range from Monday close to Thursday close. I t induces many progeny to share it's price on the pod cast today i mistakenly said it was very bearish. However, it doesn't become very bearish until the 18th or 20th of this month. nothing now to stop the bull market. but near the end of February express according to the stats a tremendous decline.

Left out from your analysis is that  market tell the story of inflation. almost all markets from grains to livestock to  cattle to every stock market with the Nikei approaching 3000 and the us approaching 40000 are at all time high including crude at a 11  month high and up.

https://econlib.org/hume-hockey-sticks-and-the-great-forgetting/ article saying that inflation is danger without taking into account commodity prices.

I played a hard game of tennis doubles against George Schults and George Tigler. with Jim Lorie as my partner . they were both very fine gentleman and fine tennis players B+. they both were instrumental in my career as well. problem was that Jim had very bad eyesight and called a serve as Tigler's out which was clearly in. I dint want too correct Jim because it would have embarrassed him and both the George's vowed correctly never to play us again. I still regret my silence 60 years later.

Feb

11

Tweets-Feb/10/2021

February 11, 2021 | Leave a Comment

Amazingly japan didn't. and euro apparently japan so busy with Olympics that overnight attendance at love hotels was distracting. e.g.. they weren't privy to inflation number in advance that isn't cricket. by the way what was inflation number are they still disregarding current level of every commodity price?

Old hearted man's favorite indicator the ratio of crypto to stock market valuation is decreasing age's favorite indicator see daily speculations com have you tested that? 

dailyspeculations.com/Letter/songs%20of%20speculation.html correction ratio of QNP value to SP valuation. 

Better version https://youtube.com/results?search_query=stout+hearted+men+male+voice+choir 

Feb

11

Tweets-Feb/9/2021

February 11, 2021 | Leave a Comment

"I would like to get up and tell you that this nightmare is over, but here I am," after the match, v " I'm already on the ground, you shoot me. I ask for a little mercy. It hurts me because I train like a madman and it doesn't work. When the guy is down, don't shoot him."

This is from Qael Monfils . but it represents what is the culture of how the ordinary man( the forgotten woman( responds to losses. anything else would create a backlash. by the way, watching Monfils play is a treat.

Amazing not a 20 day hi. missed it by 0.25.

Interesting paper from marginal revolution that leaves out the high positive correlation between beauty and intelligence vhttps://www.dropbox.com/s/j43okuoakvsm36h/Pretty2021Jan29.pdf?dl=0 

youtube.com/watch?v=FDxfyX_ESuE the good old boy wishes to stay young.

Feb

9

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/14/the-stock-market-has-never-been-this-big-relative-to-the-economy-signaling-it-could-be-overvalued.html     
The above article contains 1000 fallacies  it is a good exercise  for any student wishing to understand equities to unravel this. More to the point how would you  ascertain the correct relation between earnings and stock price in the aggregate and for individual companies.

Feb

9

Tweets-Feb/8/2021

February 9, 2021 | Leave a Comment

Tremendous abundance of green on screet, partridge. " its's a bull market"

Hope is father to the thought. There have been 17 occasions since 2011 where we had exactly 4 yellows in a row.. 3 days later the sp is up 70% of time slightly positive expect.

Something has to happen.. the range since the 6 pm open is only 10 points not enough for members to relieve the weak of chips from being undercapitalized.

The older we get' the better we were. I won the us nationals 10 times in a row ( counting the 5 times I didn't play because of faith base restrictions. what more could I have done. 

Regrettably I was taught to slide the backhand .with a proper backhand I believe I would have been equal to or surpassed Sharif who is a fine gentleman unfortunate now afflicted with a stroke like me.

 

Feb

9

Tweets-Feb/6/2021

February 9, 2021 | Leave a Comment

There is beauty in the fall of bottom feeders

Its only when you are physically or mentally superior that envy from others doesn't force you down to conform to current cultural values. Elon musk is a good example of a wilt chamberlin of business. comparisons to the founders of tech firms would be interesting.

 

Feb

9

Tweets-Feb/4/2021

February 9, 2021 | Leave a Comment

Keys to the game: 1, can we reach the new constructal number of 3900 . 2, will the big rise that has occurred from 830 to 840 in past leaks of the number continue. 3, will the long bond hit the 166 handle thereby creating a temporary barrier around lunch time.

47 years, speaking fee of 800000, do not reduce it.

As old turkey told 5 times bankrupt j. livermore, " its a bull market" stop the ephemeral stuff and yet there should be some deception until 1 pm. The point of the pole picture is that despite the school closings , people are laughing and smiling and uxorious in Florida.

Feb

5

Stefan Jovanovich  writes:

Drachinifel has just released a video essay with the charming and accurate title: "The Royal Canadian Navy - Sinking You, But Politely"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aa0ahtwzTI8

Leo Jia writes:

Strange also to me that the list stays in absolute silence for a few days once in a while lately.

Feb

5

Tweets-Feb/4/2021

February 5, 2021 | Leave a Comment

Relentless rise to all time high with little duplicity today to shake some weak public out?

Hats off Mr. Sogi singing in Tokyo .reflected singing for Gaijn.

https://google.com/search?q=game+stop+stock+price&rlz=1C1CHBF_enUS920US920&oq=game+&aqs=chrome.

0.69i59j69i57j69i59l2j35i39j69i60l3.3586j1j4&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8 what could be better for Infrastructure , Members, banks, Sp at all time high. renegades taught terrible lesson. 

Feb

5

Tweets-Feb/3/2021

February 5, 2021 | Leave a Comment

A shocking day with every market u p a little with little or no range and bonds refusing to hit the `at 167 handle which would be 3 month low as meeting with the great deceiver beckons.

The next time the Bpttp, feeders dare tp take on the infrastructures, there will be great hesitation. presumably that will be emphasized at the ageist meeting today.

https://m.timesofindia.com/city/mumbai/bees-halt-hungry-elephants-eyeing-crops-cut-human-animal-conflict/amp_articleshow/80609181.cms the bees had their day against the infrastructure.

The only question is with a low range like firm from 3840 to 3825 over night, how do the members generate churng and vig. one thing for sure . it will be unusual. 

The us mint is limiting purchases so that only selected dealers can buy it. what else is new. The drive to protect the publics from itself in all areas especially at the -da.

twitter.com/tylercowen/header_photo anything by Tyler cowen is worth reading. here's one of his books that explains the reason that Nasdaq is up and value stocks bring up he rear.

Feb

5

Tweets-Feb/2/2021

February 5, 2021 | Leave a Comment

Bonds in the 97 handle finally showing effect of unlimited crony spending.

Feb

1

100 pt Swings

February 1, 2021 | Leave a Comment

Getting to be a regular things recently.

Feb

1

For the past few months, I enjoyed a few satellite channels out of Europe.  Two outstanding are Arte and 3Sat, both public broadcasting with no commercials.  Not sure how well-known they are outside of Europe - I had not seen them before.  3Sat is German and in German (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/3sat).  Arte is a joint operation of Germany and France (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arte) and in both German and French.  Both have excellent programs of nature, culture, art, science, history, music and fine films from across the world.  For instance, 3Sat had a full day of operas on New Year's day.  And what's best is they have subtitles for operas, so one gets understanding of the dramas.  Last night, it had Monteverdi's opera L'orfeo with excellent performance.  I had not much experience with music that early, composed some 70 years before Vivaldi's birth.

For outside of Europe, they both have apps on Android (not sure about Apple) providing past and even current programs.  Arte app also allows English subtitles.  Some programs are restricted to certain regions, but perhaps one can access them via VPN.

Feb

1

Tweets-Jan/30/2021

February 1, 2021 | Leave a Comment

Should be a very good week starting Monday in the wee hours.

It is chaos for the ephemeral time that some of the bottom feeders ( the public( make profits at the expense of the top feeders ( the big hedge funds and the members and the high frequency traders. this too shall pass.

Feb

1

Tweets-Jan/29/2021

February 1, 2021 | Leave a Comment

Silly headlines going around. " ride is not over" 2. stocks fall below 3 month bull channel. 3 stock s fall below the open of Jan4. stocks fall as worries of a short squeeze resurfaced to army of amateur investors

Nasdaq at constructal levels of 13000 and 12900 playing turkey while Sogi dries off from surfing and relaxes with his Kona.

How about a strong Monday tomorrow and perhaps a reasonable close today

I know that most comments are well meaning. however, please under no circumstances communicate to me any messages or posts that are not woke as I lose all subscribers as the powers that be mistakenly conclude that I am not woke and should be canceled.

Jan

30

Raymond Berry and John Unitas
“They used to talk in the huddle. Unitas would say, ‘Raymond, what do you have?’ Raymond would then give him a pattern and he’d also give him the blocking scheme so he’d have the best possible blocking and control. John would call the play and Raymond would get open and catch the ball.

“Then one year Unitas got hurt and Gary Cuozzo got hurt and (halfback) Tom Matte became our quarterback. Tom had taken only a few snaps since college but still had to run our offense.

“So he gets in the huddle and says, ‘Raymond, what do you have?’ Raymond thought for a moment and said, ‘Call a sweep the other way.’ ”

https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1986-01-20-sp-31021-story.html

Jan

30

Niches

January 30, 2021 | Leave a Comment

Zubin Al writes: 

At a surf break, the waves tend to focus and break in a small area ideal for taking off in a surfboard.  In a normal surf line up where the surfers wait for waves people crowd up, and informally queue up for their turn at the wave. However, 20% of the surfers usually get 80% of the waves.  These are the top feeders.  

I've learned how to foil surf on hydrofoils that fly above the water.  The take off spot is in a different spot that where the board surfers drop in, and the high speed and efficiency of the foil allow riding in places where the board riders don't and can't ride.  I can also ride breaks and wave conditions where board riders cannot and don't want to ride.  After close to 60 years surfing, its opened up a whole new world of surfing for me.  Due to the extreme difficulty learning to foil, and the very high expense of the equipment, there are only a handful of foil surfers around.  We reap uncrowded waves and   thrilling high speed rides flying above the water.  

In the ecology of the market, there are many niches.  Props to the GME traders who found a new niche.  In the law of changing cycles,though, the top feeders and brokers move to protect their niche in the greater picture of the market. 

The question is whether the de leveraging and higher margins and deposits for brokers in that niche will spread and affect the general market bringing it down a notch.

One theory I've had is that big waves correlate with high volatility.  Its pure superstition.  Under my theory, wive big waves down this weekend and with big waves possible Wednesday and Thursday market vol will be up midweek.  This is pure mumbo, never tested and just for fun.

 

Jeff Watsurf writes: 

I started foil surfing a few years ago, using a kite. A total game changer in my humble opinion.

Jan

30

Tweets-Jan/29/2021

January 30, 2021 | Leave a Comment

Silly headlines going around. " ride is not over" 2. stocks fall below 3 month bull channel. 3 stock s fall below the open of Jan4. stocks fall as worries of a short squeez resurfaced to army of amateur investors.

Mr. Sogi stands drinking coffee solid as a stone wall.

Jan

29

We can obtain free markets by trading US stocks on M0scow exchange, and trading Russian stocks on NYSE.  Same way they are liberating social media.

Jan

29

Tweets-Jan/28/2021

January 29, 2021 | Leave a Comment

A reader from Europe asks where can he buy Kona coffee and what is an acceptable price. coffee is one of the areas that i am ignorant of. but will a woke reader answer please.

Thanks for the readers answer on woke coffee. to be ignorant of your ignorance is the malady of the ignorant. i am ignorant of most things except for the defunct game of hard ball squash.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trevor_Chappell it isn't crickets for the public to be making money at expense of the infrastructure. similar to the hunts when the exchange banned buying and then realized all gains on their previous losses thru the courts. hunt was good rackets player. 

Jan

27

Tweets-Jan/27/2021

January 27, 2021 | Leave a Comment

Stay close to your desks https://youtube.com/watch?v=IJRt2a45uqk to be played at 2 pm.

https://idealist.org/en/nonprofit/a520022b52e543af8e24d9cacebc8631-camp-kinderland-brooklyn how does one get a speaking engagement there.

Thank you for the Kona coffee below 3750.

youtube.com/watch?v=2ozLsqnLasw Janet Yellen monitories situation in hot stocks.

Jan

27

Tweets-Jan/26/2021

January 27, 2021 | Leave a Comment

https://wsj.com/articles/the-day-trading-barbarians-at-the-gate-wont-sack-wall-street-11611660505 it isn't cricket used to provide nutrients for infrastructure.

Public to provide food for those on higher trophic levels as bacon would say " the public has no rite to be ahead of the form especially when the trainers are betting against them the horse that were shipped from Florida to NY. are now getting accustomed to track.

https://sites.google.com/view/casinoreviews/blog/the-ideology-behind-online-casino-games first and foremost rule " the House Must Win".

Its not cricket the public is winning , some top feeders are losing. . the Fed is part of the infrastructure. and they have to do something to stop the public from winning. expect them to beg forbearance from fellow colleagues at Treasury and House and to do something bear.

There must be a winning team in south of NY . action must be taken. high frequency trading must continue apace,  so however, a temporary cessation of bullish profits for the public will be enough to extend reliance on agrarian ideas.

A very sagacious man tweets that a agrarian woman will be yelling. I disagree. one thing we can all agree on is that the be all and end all is for the trophic levels, the sharks to eat the bass —- to be upheld even if two days may lose some gamester support.

Don't expect any pointed posts from me tomorrow( i try to keep them innocuous as I lose a google of followers every time i stray from the Woke.) I have 5 health procedures scheduled for tomorrow culminating in the draining of my left leg which is bigger than Game Stop rise.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=Bf4-SBA2Ed8
 

The time to stop this infernal topsy turvy market where the bags are temporarily losing to the public. and the serial correlation that supports this in part. But remember old turkey partridges adman. ITs a bull market. after two days look for bull and yet. if it goes down too much before the announcement , a stern meeting at the camp Kinsella woodworking commune may be scheduled in order to varnish a few words.

Jan

26

Tweets-Jan/25/2021

January 26, 2021 | Leave a Comment

A new niche with eg. soybeans from $9.00 to $13.00 in 4 months after staying below $8.000 for five years. , nas broke 135000 for new high today versus 7000 one year ago, and every stock market at new highs. what happens in a new niche , régime like this.

Does the population grow inregimesl like this?? or do the resources provide for the various species. is there competitive exclusion> these questions relate to the current niche

https://foxnews.com/health/fauci-backs-double-masking-in-coronavirus-fight-says-likely-more-effective dr. cattle will not answer whether previous admin responsible for thousands of deaths

The coffee was very bigger and ephemeral and had to be taken very light. bonds seem to be exuberant based on the friendship of chance gardener and Miss Kinsella.

Jan

26

Tweets-Jan/22/2021

January 26, 2021 | Leave a Comment

youtu.be/wRquqNUKrT4

A duplicity to create havoc after yesterdays calm

Jan

22

Inverted Curves

January 22, 2021 | Leave a Comment

Duncan Coker writes: 

Amid all the melee of the last year it is easy to forget the yield curve inversion that occurred in May of 2019 presaging a recession in 2020.  This indicator is 4/4 on calling recessions within 12 months including 2020, 2008, 2001 and 1991.  Of course a lot of things can and do happen 12 months before a recession including pandemics, lock downs, credit crisis', bubbles, real estate and oil shocks.  Bankers hate inverted curves because it makes renting money more difficult. Academics who pine for equilibrium also are chagrined by inverted curves.  Soon we will have an academic at Treasury and a banker at the Fed and I doubt we will see an inverted curve again for a long while.

Stefan Jovanovich  writes:

CD's use of "renting money" to describe banking is, for this 19th century mind, a wonderful highlighting of the fundamental discontinuity between my favorite century and the present one.  People in the 19th century actually did rent money; loans were made in issues of actual currency - bank notes and coin.  That helps explain the seeming paradox of permanently inverted interest rates curves - where call loan rates would always be higher than the yields on 30 and 50 year private and U.S. Treasury debt.   Now that all debt payments are credit extensions (even payday lenders are "paid back" not in cash but in paper), are there any transactions that still have the moneyness that can be subject to panic?  

That seems to me to be at the heart of CD's comment.   

Jan

22

Arc Sine Law

January 22, 2021 | Leave a Comment

50's gravitational effect in  effect today, together with the tendency toward new highs to continue.  Hard to believe but that  is what creates the wall of worry bull markets climb.

Jan

22

Learn

January 22, 2021 | Leave a Comment

Victor Niederhoffer  writes:

What can we learn and what insights do the football  games and quan regularities has to teach us about markets. I often feel that the 50 years zone is  transition to likely touchdown as is the 80 to 100 level the redone where  it is likely to go to 100.

Eric Lindell   writes:

I've found that general knowledge of shenanigans can be helpful. Consider deflategate, where Tom Brady/Patriots were accused of using deflated footballs.

Careful review of highlight reel shows intentionally missed passes by the Colts, which even the announcer noticed.

Deflated footballs were used as a minor cheating scandal to conceal a much more serious one. They were also used to create the illusion that the Colts were resisting Patriots' attempt to cheat.

It was partly because Brady and concomitant shenanigans moved to the Buccaneers that I predicted a good season for them. I still do.

Jan

22

Tweets-Jan/21/2021

January 22, 2021 | Leave a Comment

Interview with Sogi, the importance of 50's and 100's, a maximum of woke-ity

https://youtube.com/watch?v=zZ6MWHrjYOg

It's not cricket, European range was so small (less than 10 points) that the public wasn't forced out of positions … yet

Sogi interview has important life lessons on surfing, coffee, and books. Sogi is a man for all seasons.. highly recommended.

Jan

22

Tweets-Jan/20/2021

January 22, 2021 | Leave a Comment

Happy days all time highs in all stock markets except German. The less capitalistic we are the higher we go.

Jack Barnaby " the older we get the better we were" ( I had salaam 13-10 in the fifth game and then I fooled him with a reverse corner and he was so astounded he had to readjust his jock. etc.)

The Sennet victor podcast will interview Mr. Sogi at 530 pm et. today Jan 20. well all learn something and revive some soulful thought of a very good man.

Jan

22

Tweets-Jan/19/2021

January 22, 2021 | Leave a Comment

Structural numbers beckon at 30000 Nikkei, 38000 sp. what else?

Today we discuss sports betting as well as differences between public and private infrastructure. 

http://youtube.com/video/yFqRM_cOStM

Jan

22

Tweets-Jan/18/2021

January 22, 2021 | Leave a Comment

What can we learn from football tactics based on where you are relative to midfield and how close you are to a fist down 10 pts and the red zone that will help us with market tactics?

One expects that I will break my record of losing followers on my post about football as I have lost of each of the last 15 posts there is nothing about the incumbent or woke in it I think.

For sure the level of analysis in sports betting e.g. vsin is much more sophisticated than anything used in market forecasting.

Jan

18

Big AI  writes: 

Does Hollywood ruin books?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FUD8h9JpEVQ

Scott Brooks  writes: 

That was a very interesting post, Big! 

Jan

18

learn

January 18, 2021 | Leave a Comment

Because humans have 5 fingers, and are trained in decimal base ten counting, they tend to think in 10/5 boxes, like a football field, like a 100 point trading range, with rounds being the edges of a box.  

Jan

18

Bayes

January 18, 2021 | Leave a Comment

This guy, "3 Blue 1 Brown", does really nice vids:

Bayes Theorem
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HZGCoVF3YvM

And non-stat:

Visualizing the Riemann zeta function and analytic continuation
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sD0NjbwqlYw

Jan

18

Motivated me to look up the UK Monopoly board:

https://i.pinimg.com/originals/ae/cf/f5/aecff5f058348b20be3a41d3bc306800.jpg

Jan

18

Jeffrey Watson  writes:

I wonder if specs as children would eat the marshmallow now or wait the 15 minutes and get another one?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N_jakAtI0Zo

Stefan Jovanovich  writes:

The fraud in social science is that its practitioners almost always end up being Platonists.  Instead of doing what Darwin and others did - collecting data in massive quantities and then using mathematics to find the probabilities, they define an idea - delayed gratification - and then work at finding the evidence that proves that the idea exists.  The law - the worst of all modern social sciences - does this automatically.  If you repeated the marshmallow experiment a hundred times, you would get the beginnings of understanding.  You might discover that the issue with the child who does not wait on the first trial is trust of strangers, that, after seeing that waiting does get you a second one, he is happy to wait as long as required.  If you change the reward structure so it is competitive - the one who waits longer gets 2, you would see yet another result.  The length of the finches' beaks is a statistical response to reality, not a measure of any particular bird's desire for instant or delayed gratification.

To answer Watsurf's question, for marshmallows I could wait forever - hate the things and always have.  For black licorice, I would have stolen the other kids before he had a chance to think.

Anna K writes: 

Stefan, very good points about all the issues with the test, but do you really think that “delayed vs instant gratification” doesn’t exist or doesn’t matter? 

Stefan Jovanovich  writes:

To give AK's questions a binary answer, No and No.  Delayed gratification is another categorical description that pretends human beings have innate behavioral qualities that can be quantitied, will be stable over time, and have predictive value.  But, the only measure that more than a century of experimental  data has shown to have a correlation with future behavior is the one that makes no effort to dissect people's minds but takes them completely as a whole - IQ.  And that, of course, is the very measure that has become illegal because it can foretell what individuals can and will do.

Penny Brown writes: 

Towards that end, De Blasio has decided to end testing to determine which students receive a place in schools for the gifted and talented.

No one is allowed to be superior in his world.  He has foster the dumbing down of education because having superior achievers is not equal.

Henceforth admission to the schools for  gifted students will just be determined by a lottery.

Jan

18

Tweets-Jan/17/2021

January 18, 2021 | Leave a Comment

Mr. Sogi do you like sushi with y our Kona coffee while watching the game with the ball pass the 50 year line of the adversary.

Mr Sogi you're close to your favorite red zone. may i suggest you go with your Japanese recent hires? 

Jan

18

Tweets-Jan/15/2021

January 18, 2021 | Leave a Comment

Now one ascertains why it was down overnight

https://youtu.be/ghIiTR7l9_g

Jan

18

Tweets-Jan/14/2021

January 18, 2021 | Leave a Comment

Allis Halcyon on the round front.

youtu.be/j35x-DwViio 

Jan

18

Tweets-Jan/13/2021

January 18, 2021 | Leave a Comment

The purpose of markets, the lessons from the palindromes break of the bank on the British pounds, the secret of gaining traction for your position and a general reprieve of the market that's more informative than any other.

https://investopedia.com/articles/forex/08/greatest-currency-trades.asp on the contrary the worst currency trade ever see the pod cast.

youtu.be/5L47Kh5DHGM holding fire, bonds resist inflation, constructal numbers everywhere , Nikkei 30000.

Jan

18

Tweets-Jan/12/2021

January 18, 2021 | Leave a Comment

Its not cricket the range so far has only been 20 points. that's not enough to create normal vig and profits for infrastructure by forcing out the undercapitalized public thru moves they cant accommodate due to deplorable capital.

What is the game where the pitcher didn't allow the batters a clear shot by ruling it to the batter.

What the weather like at Duke professor and how are my daughter and his husband Chris doing at their schools. are their taking advantage of the constructs in their studies and life? how does it relate to medical and law schools as well as markets?"

A change in guard after 5 consecutive days down. could it temporaries halt like damn the constructal number in Sp.

Amazing that five down days inbounds didn't break the Sp relentless rise to new high. but a 1 day rise in bonds insufficient to send tocks up by almost a %

Would everybody kindly refrain from sending me non-woke material of any kid to this account as I have lost 10% of my followers in the past 2 weeks presumably do to algorithms to prevent non-woke.

The big catholic schools would pay bklyn college football team a huge amount to come to their home. so they could demolish the boys from BKLYN. the average score against bklyn was 72-3 . a touch back didn't count as a negative points so their score was positive like my followers.

Jan

12

Richard Owen  writes:

Eddy Goldfarb, who is ninety-eight, created such classics as the
bubble gun, chattering teeth, and Kerplunk! Here’s how he did it.  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9sKKan_Q9VU

Well I was always optimistic.
I always believed things are gonna turn out okay.
I annoy people with my optimism.
People who, why don't you face reality and stuff?
Well, I think I'm right.
I think being optimistic helps me a lot.

Before going to sleep the night before
I usually go over the events of the day
and review the problems encountered in my work.
During the night, everything becomes much clearer,
and even some of yesterday's problems are solved.
I sometimes think that I got a little help
from family and friends that are no longer with us.
Rain or snow, cloudy or sunny,
it's a new, wonderful opportunity that we are given.
It's going to be a big day.

Laurence Glazier writes:

Such an inspiring film, thank you.

The story quoted was, I think, meant to be exactly 100 words. A game in the spirit of Oulipo,

The final three lines I am guessing summarise, like the closing couplet of a sonnet.

Jan

12

 

Victor Niederhoffer  writes:

How many things can you think of that were not cricket in the recent election https://thenewdaily.com.au/sport/cricket/2018/03/28/underarm-bowling-incident/

Stefan Jovanovich  writes:

In terms of electoral accounting, this was a particularly nasty
election; but it was hardly exceptional. Compared to what happened in
New York in 1884, the cheating by the Democrats in Pennsylvania in 2020
barely rises above the level of "if you ain't cheating, you ain't competing" which has been the standard ever since the qualifications for
voting stopped including property ownership (the 1820s).

Victor Niederhoffer  writes: 

Herb London used to say that  1/2 million votes were always relieved in NYC election for governors. its was a hard takes for him 50% of the
electorate worked for noon- service paying orgs like the un or the  city
and state govs. Add in the 500000 votes and he was behind 60%  of
votes before  the Staten Island politician could eviscerate hims
further. but what  i was referring to was the " not cricket :" like the
delay in the big pharma announcement and the  stimulus bill and the Dr.
cattle   propaganda and the suppression of news about the son.

Stefan Jovanovich  writes:

Yes.  There is nothing in that 19th century election - even the
propaganda against Blaine for being "anti-Catholic" - that comes close
to what we have lived through in the age of democracy not dying in
darkness.

Jan

12

Galton on Politics

January 12, 2021 | Leave a Comment

Victor Niederhoffer  writes: 

Why a slight switch in sentiment can cause a landslide of change.  I'll
get the exact quote somewhat  later but this is good  concerning the
tendency of oxen and human to have a preference for slavery

Penny Brown writes: 

A quote from Maxim du Camp - friend of Flaubert: "Revolution is always
the same: initiated by simpletons, helped along by fools, pushed through
by rogues and then taken over by the opportunists who do quite well."

Jan

12

Zubin Al writes: 

Recently at a restaurant at lunch, two blue collar guys, one older, one
younger guy with a beard, both  in electricians uniforms sit down and  I
overhear the young guy explaining to the older guy about buying stocks,
and how if they double how much money he can make.  He says he doesn't
care how much it goes down, and that he will hold on.  The conversation
moves to Bitcoin, and the younger guy doesn't quite understand how it
works but that it keeps going up. To myself I'm thinking, "hmmm".  I
remember in late 1999 walking into the broker's office where I see a
young woman who I remember waiting tables there buying stocks.  I recall
taxi drivers during that same period talking stocks as conversation in
the cabs.

I wonder, is it different this time?
 

Dr Gangineni Dhananjhay writes: 

I have also got a similar experience in India. Near the brokerage
company where I regularly go to trade, I visit a Coffee stall. The
person running the coffee shop started giving stock advice. Which stocks
to buy and sell and general market opinion. I got afraid. Of course
this is an anecdotal evidence. I am seeing more of my relatives and
family members giving me stock advice. Time to be cautious ??

Jack Cook writes: 

For me, the Spring of 2001 'Aha Mr. Livermore, this is the top?  My
Masseuse was working on my lats and telling tales of retiring on all the
Cisco stock he had.

He is still my Masseuse.

Best in 2021

Heather

TikTok and Discord Are the New Wall Street Trading DesksCaitlin McCabe, Gunjan Banerji and Mischa Frankl-Duval-WSJ. A
new army of social media-enabled day traders is helping push stocks to
records and turning companies into market sensations. As trading by
individual investors boomed during the coronavirus pandemic, so has the
popularity of online communities where they gather. Platforms including
TikTok, Twitter, YouTube, Reddit, Instagram, Facebook and messaging
platform Discord have become the new Wall Street trading desks.
Individual investors gather to talk about hot stocks like Tesla Inc.,
boast of gains and commiserate about losses. These investors do more
than just talk, though. They piggyback on each others' ideas and trades,
helping fuel the momentum that has propelled some companies to
triple-digit or bigger gains in 2020.
on.wsj.com/3bxmPHI

Jan

12

Tweets-Jan/11/2021

January 12, 2021 | Leave a Comment

A round number is never a penumbra.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military%E2%80%93industrial_complex replaced by congressional tcho-loy complex.

Little john, Frier tuck, special purpose vehicles Harvard invite to buy venture capital thru them, a plenitude of yellow.

Jan

12

Tweets-Jan/10/2021

January 12, 2021 | Leave a Comment

" Its a bull market " partridge.

Jan

12

Tweets-Jan/8/2021

January 12, 2021 | Leave a Comment

I had an insight from a dream last nite.the secret is to buy when the news is bad. do the opposite of what it seems like you should do from a psychology of spec book of http://1900.buy when the public is most negative concerning the prospects.
 
Nasdaq breached another constructional number at 13000. bitcoin on way to Sogi coffee number at 44400.. Nikkei must reach 30000 now at 28400.
 
Niederhoffer Sennett Daily Market Web 2021/01/08 https://youtu.be/3DVMDAisu-E via@YouTube

 

Jan

8

My picture of the chairs office without room for a private hairdresser was in bad taste as i came during the protests i apologize, what I said about g and s having more freedom to ridicule the unified gov than we have was true but it was inappropriate at moment.

During the march of the peers in Iolanthe G and S HAD Them costume and masked as infamous peers of the day. i performed in the show 60 years ago directed by Nancy Lorie, Jim's first wife who every year directed a different G and S show as a fund raiser for the Lab school. Imagine a performance today with some peers dressed as persons of color, others in orange,, and a personage of age with her hair in curlers.

Quant points out that last night. I was bearish because of increase service rates spending and progressive control of capital and the dire prospects for R's in future. I was wrong,after being bull for 1000 pts first rise today before playing it for the contractual 3800.

I am very fallible especially when I relate market to qualitative things and when I give up buy and hold.

https://youtu.be/y8P-k0Lrjkk 

Stocks at an all-time high, bonds at a 7 month low. NASDAQ at an all-time high near a constructal number of 13,000. Stick to buy-and-hold and don't be swayed by qualitative bad news. 

Jan

8

You can't give a beaten dog a break. All the news that the incumbent cased for just 11000 votes is a terrible bowdlerizing of what the conference calls was. the incumbent presented 8 strands of falsity in the tallys including one by a notorious ballot stuffer. And he said that given he claims and will document hundreds of thousands of votes taken away from him or falsely given to the challenger. ,, all he need sis 11000 votes; the conference call was secretly recorded by the republicans on the voting committee in Georgia. why?

Your own man. on the Spe list we have had any discussions of the street game where there is a dispute about a call and the other side points out that "your own man " said you were out. Secretary Raffenberger and the other repubs are perfect example of that.. they are obviously trying their hardest to sink the incumbent whole claiming that the voted for r's etc. and that they recounted twice. The leaked tape t o embarrass the incumbent and the 25 calls he made unrequited is another indicia. the dee p state and the swamp are contagious not only is 95% against the r's because they among other things they are paid by increasing government but they are hauling out every technique form street games and other games of duplicate to make it seems that they are non-partisan crude joins t he fray at construal number and inflationary signal that academic research will be hauled out to show it don't matter with everything else at high also change in form and tempo and wokity Tech will not have as clear sailing to use their big horns to out compete non-tech business. should be reversal of form for value stocks another change in form in favor of big horns.

Wsj editorial reply

(Edited) 

Actually the disaster is going to occur if the Democrats: stack the Supreme Court, continue to support the black victimization industry, bail out the free-spending and almost bankrupt Democratic states of Connecticut, New Jersey, and Illinois.

Wsj editorial response continued 

Cancel student debt, bring in Medicare for all having already trashed a good part of the private health insurance market with Obamacare, re-enter Iran nuclear deal, keep cozying up to Cuba, continue bleeding the military budget to pay for domestic.

editorial continued  

Defund the police, excuse self important intelligentsia that all white people are racist, continue to block charter schools, be hostage to teachers unions, consolidate more power in wash" Why the market is down 35 since D'S won Georgia.

Niederhoffer Sennett Daily Market Web 2021/01/05 https://youtu.be/S1d6WcCOeMk via @YouTube

Nie discussion of trend following unindividual stocks, the three greatest investors, bitcoin as sponge for woke and inflation, what really happened in conf call, inflation galore, big horn sheep as big tech, "your own man" et al in Jan 5 sonnet Vic podcast. Yes the great genius chess champion often played chess at w.4th street beach while I played paddles a block away, unfortunately the water didn't transmit his genius to me, but I had seven wonderful kids more than he amazing that at of 11 30 pm from 6pm,est the  Sp futures have swung above and below the construal number of 3700 8 times— doing it again as I write- 

Jan

5

Perfect Example

January 5, 2021 | Leave a Comment

Victor Niederhoffer  writes: 

Of our favorite technique from street games " your own ma" the r's in Georgia  loudly proclaim that they voted r's but at the same time they are obviously string their hardest to sink the incumbent.  How can you fight the system when everyone is against you and they are hauling out every technique to make you look bad. Who is this notorious ballot stuffer that the   Georgia elected official had in a prominent position. And which the incumbent said was alone in the office with the suitcase of 100% voted or d's. the conference call claimed 7 or 7 deferent kinds of abuse and it was taken out of context by all media to say that the incumbent want just 11000 votes. I often was visited with a biased referee in squash who was against me because I was not from Merior or the prep schools or because I was Jewish. Osborne tried to help me. and I still remember how the finals of the championship was stolen from me when the referee called a ball down on me which he had never done. In other words, play was going on and there was no appeal but he shout out down. It doesn't seem important in retrospect but it prevent me from winning the world championship when I was 18 years old. the incumbent has to fight 4 millions against him and the forces against him are contagious to make matters worse.

Zubin Al  writes: 

Indeed, it’s the coordinated powers of the world against one man (a man in the most powerful position in the world). Trump has been an existential threat to China’s path to economic superpower status, an existential threat to the Climate Action 100+ coordination/cooperation, and an existential threat to the swamp. To what extent would they go to remove him?  It seems we are seeing it. “Whatever it takes.”  Tomorrow and the days ahead may be total chaos.

Jan

5

There was some talk responsive to what regularities are in play now that the first day of year was down more than ever before. with I think a facetious shout out to me, i.e. " he has every regularity quantified" if only that were true and more to point if only the regularities weren't subject to Bacon's law, i.e.. Irhoffer Sennett Daily Market Web 2021/01/04.

You can't keep a good man down. After the biggest sell-off to start any year (150 pts), the market ended only 1.5% off the all-time high. Everything depends upon the Georgia election tomorrow. 

Jan

5

With topsy turvy and woke and margin debt at all time high and the small investors marking money in options spec purp vehicles and momentum, and Georgia in play for d's, I revisit the likelihoods and note after big highs near the last trading day of year, not so hot.

Please tell me how with every market at a high, the inflation are going to be very worrisomely high the next few //ac=announcements or are we still going with all the crazy academic research that says that markets don't matter and are just temporary blips.

We start with a drink of Kona coffee from Mr. Sogi as the market plays footsie with his favorite coffee level of 3750.

Jan

4

https://youtu.be/3VniS6ObNNE
Niederhoffer Sennett Daily Market Web 2020/12/30
Predictions for the end of the year! Harvard leads from behind, a forerunner of venture capital crash.

Jan

4

There is something poetic, inevitable, fateful, and nonstructural about the year end closing prices for markets. Every market closed at a absolute high. the grains, the softs, the meats, the European stocks, the Japanese, the SP and the Nasdaq. just the bonds at 17300 in middle the of last day of year was in a sense recap of the whole year. the SP was down 1/2 % at 4:am but then went up 1% to a new high at the close. and all this happened with wokenss at a high. The betting odds now favor the d's to win in Georgia and control everything. The Fang controlled 40% of the increase in wealth of the SP in line with Pareto's law. The Pres was at the height of popularity and the nadir. What can we see excet that the Markets loves socialism. the cancel culture of the university and the media and the education system, the contagion of living in the swamp, with 95% in favor of the deep state has reached a climax of wokenss and wealth for all the progenitors. those who saw a disastrous drop in business and a terrible precedent for individuality and capitalism led from behind. Its a topsy turvy world.

what will be have for next year. a big rise in December has been quite bull until end of Fed according to seasonal. with everything else topsy turvy we dare not predict beyond the technical.

I could add to the all time highs as readers have pointed out, the European and Japanese currencies and the real estate in non-coastal cities. perhaps the bell weather was bitcoin the new signaler of inflation and wokenss to come closing at 29400 and dragging old fashioness conservative gold to a 1 month high of 1900.

An excellent study of trend following in individual stocks https://cis.upenn.edu/~mkearns/finread/trend.pdf from 2005. anyone have an update?

I see that my former tennis partner noble winner has study that value stocks out perform growth stocks . I've found that nothing he reports is valid and would guess that growth stocks on a going forward basis will continue to outperf as Nas outperformed SP by 22% this year.

Dec

31

Zubin Al  writes: 

Each year I like to count the number of private jets parked during the holidays at the local FBO.  Many of the worlds richest people have homes here such as Bill Gates, Roberts of KKR, Charles Schwab, The Go Daddy guy, Dave Roux of Silverlake Partners…  and they all have private jets. The theory is that the rich know what's going on with the economy and is a tell for the future.

There are notably fewer jets this year. I counted 18 on Christmas and will update later today  on my way to foil big waves at the beach past the airport.  Usually the lot overflows to park jets on Maui and Oahu with 40 or more.

My take (and in theory the captain's of industry take)  is that this thing is not going to be over this next year, and will drag on.

Victor Niederhoffer  writes: 

Mr. Sogi I have had  numerous requests to interrupt you on my blog. when and  would you be a good time for that?

Zubin Al  writes: 

Usually around 1 pm Hawaii Time, maybe next week would be fine.  I just ask that you don't put me on the "spot" as you normally do when you ask me questions.  Pitch me some lobs for easy answers so I can avoid sounding too bad. 

Dec

31

Tweets-Dec/30/2020

December 31, 2020 | Leave a Comment

A sensible comment to a WSJ editorial of Holman Jenkins I bet there are more people suffering from anxiety and depression than there are people who died from the virus. All those small businesses that have closed. The isolation and disruption to your every day routines. 

Incumbent continues to do his best to reduce chances.

Bilious headline " us stocks drop after hope fades for expanded aid" 

Dec

30

Eddy Goldfarb, who is ninety-eight, created such classics as the bubble gun, chattering teeth, and Kerplunk! Here’s how he did it.  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9sKKan_Q9VU

Well I was always optimistic.
I always believed things are gonna turn out okay.
I annoy people with my optimism.
People who, why don't you face reality and stuff?
Well, I think I'm right.
I think being optimistic helps me a lot.

Before going to sleep the night before
I usually go over the events of the day
and review the problems encountered in my work.
During the night, everything becomes much clearer,
and even some of yesterday's problems are solved.
I sometimes think that I got a little help
from family and friends that are no longer with us.
Rain or snow, cloudy or sunny,
it's a new, wonderful opportunity that we are given.
It's going to be a big day.


Archives

Resources & Links

Search