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Daily Speculations The Web Site of Victor Niederhoffer & Laurel Kenner Dedicated to the scientific method, free markets, deflating ballyhoo, creating value, and laughter; a forum for us to use our meager abilities to make the world of specinvestments a better place. |
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James Sogi
11/30/04
Wipeout!
Inspired by JT, here are some classic wipeouts surfing.
1. "Sucked Over the Falls." This is the worst. When trying to paddle back out
over a breaking wave, the wave breaks before you can paddle over the top and the
wave sucks you back over the falls backward, down a 15-foot hole where the wave
is pitching out over itself, and tons of water crash on your head, as you fall
backward, and the wave then picks you up again for a second go around getting
thrown over the wave again, plus you get rolled underwater for 20-40 seconds
which seems longer when it's happening and the breath is knocked out of you.
It's like when you don't take your profit, and the market crashes not only
taking away your nice big fat gain, but giving you a nice fat loss. That's the
worst trade of all. Here's some good wipeout footage.
2. "Getting the ax." A particularly dangerous wipeout when paddling
back out. The wave breaks in front of you and the lip, a 2-foot thick
slab of eight tons of water moving at 30 miles an hour, comes
straight down on your head and knocks you off the board, spins you
underwater and smashes your face into the board. This is like the second
you enter long, both Soros and the NY Fed sell 5000 contracts at the
moment you enter and the price drops 8 points before you even get a fill
on your stop. Here are more wipeouts.
3. "Pearl diving." Just as you take off on a 30-foot face paddling
straight down the face, as you jump to your feet, at the most critical
part of the wave, where it is straight up and down, the nose of the
board nose goes under the water slowing the board as you fly head first
twenty feet free falling in the air, hitting the water on your face,
then thirty tons of water follows you and buries you. Then follows the
obligatory 20-minute swim around the bay as the rip current drags you
along the razor sharp reef as you gasp for breath. Kind of like the
trade where you enter on a "pullback" except it's not a pullback, it's the
beginning of the great recession as your net worth plummets.
4. "Lip Launched." When beginning to paddle into the wave
just as its breaking, having delayed a bit too
late,being inthe wrong position, and having failed to
exert enough effort, rather than sliding down the face
smoothly for a nice long ride, the pitching lip of the
wave throws you out over the falls through the air and
smashes you into the water, and then into the bottom
like a pile driver. Lesson: enter trade early with
great vigor."
When you catch a good one it makes it all worth while. The other
thing is you don't get angry at the wave for beating the crap out of
you. It's only water. (It's only money) Next time just stay out of the
way of the danger zone and make the drop or paddle harder and get the
timing down better and don't have to eat it as much. Surf safe. Trade
safe. Stay healthy.
James Sogi is a philosopher, Juris Doctor, surfer, trader, investor, musician, black belt, sailor, semi-centenarian. He lives on the mountain in Kona, Hawaii, with his family