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James Sogi Philosopher, Juris Doctor, surfer, trader, investor, musician, black belt, sailor, semi-centenarian. He lives on the mountain in Kona, Hawaii, with his family.

5/11/2005
Credibility, by James Sogi

Success and failure, and even  life and death hinge on credibility. People are judged on their credibility and the ability to gauge credibility is critical.  What is it, and how is it judged?  Do you believe the analyst, broker, doctor, spec, wife, witness, client, salesman, advertisement, warranty, insurance company.  How can you avoid being conned?

Ask yourself:

1. What are the person's motives?
2. Are his statements consistent with prior and current statements and actions?
3. What is his demeanor?
4. What do you know about this person?
5. What is this person's record?
6. What opportunity has this person had for perceiving.
7. What is your relationship with this person?
8. Are the statements consistent with generally accepted expertise on the matter?
9. What is the person's reputation in the community and for veracity?
10. What are the person's credentials?
11. What are the facts upon which he makes his conclusions? Are the facts correct?
12. What are his assumptions? Are they correct?
13. What are the person's prejudices?
14. Is the person  able  to perceive, understand, and remember?
15. Has your prior experience with this person been good or bad?

Negative or no answer to any one of these should be a red flag. Chair always warns of the big cons. This will help you avoid them.

 when big waves like today's come rolling in.

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