Daily Speculations
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James Sogi
Philosopher, Juris Doctor, surfer, trader, investor, musician, black belt, sailor, semi-centenarian. He lives on the mountain in Kona, Hawaii, with his family. |
9/21/2005
Where Do New Ideas Come From? by
Jim Sogi
In the Logic of Scientific Discovery, Karl Popper expressly avoids the issue of conceiving or inventing a theory. The question of how it happens that a new idea occurs to a man -- whether it is a musical theme, a dramatic conflict, or a scientific theory -- may be of great interest to empirical psychology; but it is irrelevant to the logical analysis of scientific knowledge. This is a big gap which we now address.
Creation does not reconcile with the scientific method. The purpose of science is to test hypotheses that are used to explain and predict. But where do new ideas come from? Popper's method requires only falsification, never proof of causality which fits statistical theory. Falsification is based on empirical proof. Empirical proof must arise from what already exists or every theory would always be falsified by a 'what if.'
How does science deal with the creation of new ideas? Each new moment of history unfolds in a new manner unknown in all prior experience. Despite scientific theory, natural laws, and expectations and predictions, you don't always know what will happen. We come across this in law, every situation is different, new in some unique way. Every person is different and unique. A market pattern happened a thousand times in a similar gross manner, but the next time will be different, something some where is different. A million songs have been written, a million new books, but there will always be a new song, a new book a new story, a new idea. It is the act of creation. At every moment, the past is being destroyed, and a new universe is created. Creation is change. The defining aspect of humanity is our ability to create. Where do new ideas come from? New hypotheses can be tested, but their significance will not be clear for a period of time until the new idea or theory proves its mettle in experimentation.
There are significant patterns and tests. A pattern will not be significant without a history. It is not clear that once its significance is established, conversely, it will not change by overuse or outside circumstances, changes in law, weather or other exogenous factors. New ideas arise and affect the status quo and sometimes change the world.
Let me raise a toast to the Chair and my friends on the list and all the contributors for many new creative ideas, the means to test them, but above all, the courage and INSPIRATION to use our meager abilities to make the world of speculation a better place.
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