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Daily Speculations The Web Site of Victor Niederhoffer & Laurel Kenner Dedicated to the scientific method, free markets, deflating ballyhoo, creating value, and laughter; a forum for us to use our meager abilities to make the world of specinvestments a better place. |
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11/10/04
Don't Miss the Big Wave, by James Sogi
Da Boys were hanging out at Banyan's surf spot in the afternoon as I showed up to surf. They told me, "Brah! you missed 'em, you shoulda been here dis morning. The waves were big and perfect, the wind was offshore, and the waves were glassy and no one was out" I looked despondently at the junky windblown chop that afternoon. In Bruce Brown's classic surf movie "Endless Summer", Mike and Robert travel around the world in search of the perfect wave. Everywhere they went they heard, "You guys really missed it, you should have been here yesterday. The waves were great." Surf, like the market, is rarely epic. If you're not "on it" ready to commit 110%(or more), you'll miss the 'big day', or 'the big move'. If you miss the epic day or the big move, or didn't have a big enough position, or bailed out too soon, you'll be kicking yourself in the butt. The Dow wave surf report on 10/23 was: " 541-651 with a period 17 days for rises and 31 days for declines." The average wave in 2004 was 604 points. Daily Speculation had the Clews reference early on 10/25. Chair and Grandmaster advised not to bail too soon. So far Dow is up 636 points in 11 days since 10/25. New moon Friday. The waves are flat in Kona now, just like the market.