06/30/06

Commentary:  Fed UP !

Maybe this Bernanke guy is going to be all right.

As pleasant as Thursday was, the GTI is still
down 18% since May 5. We need a lot more big
days to catch up, but maybe we've turned the
corner. The year is now half over. It's time for
a second half rally. Go Team!

One encouraging note, perhaps, is that we finally
broke the Monday jinx. Well, sort of. The week
still started with a disaster, but it fell on Tuesday,
one day late.

Good riddance to an ugly quarter. All that can be
said for it is that 2002 was a whole lot worse.

The Week Day by Day:
 


The Week's Top Gainers and Losers

Gainers Losers
 IKAN + 12.5%    SIGM - 15.0% 
 GLW + 12.2%    LNOP - 7.5% 
 CPHD + 7.9%    BRCM - 3.7% 
 SMI + 7.0%    AMD - 2.9% 
 EQIX + 6.3%    MVIS - 2.0% 

As of Tuesday, Sigma Designs (SIGM) was down
38% for the month, its very own Sigmoidoscopy.
But it's up 10% since it hit *bottom*. Best wishes
for a continued recovery.


Returns for the Week
:

Gilder Technology Index (GTI):  + 2.0%
Nasdaq Composite Index (NSD):  + 2.4%
S&P 500 Index (S&P): 
+ 2.1%

Historical Returns:

Period GTI    NSD  S&P 
1997 (est'd) 21% 22% 31%
1998 (est'd) 48% 40%  27%
1999 284% 86%  20%
2000 - 44% - 39% - 10%
2001  - 43% - 21%  - 13%
2002 - 56% - 32% - 23%
2003  130% 50% 26%
2004   3% 9%    9%
2005   5%  1% 3%
2006 to date  5.2% - 1.5% 1.8%
Avg for 9+ yrs  10.1%  5.6% 5.8%
Last 52 wks 15% 6% 6%
Since the high
of 3/06/00
- 77% - 57% - 17%
Since the low
of 10/09/02
292% 95% 64%

Comparison of Returns for GTI Stocks
By Whether or Not They Pay Dividends:

Year Do Pay
Dividends
Do Not Pay
Dividends
2004 11.6%   - 3.3%  
2005 11.1%   4.2%  
2006 to date - 9.0%   9.2%  
Avg for 2+ yrs 5.0%   3.9%  

Room to Grow:

  GTI NSD S&P
Loss from the
high to the low
94%   78%   49%  
% of the loss
recovered
18%   27%   66%  
Return needed
for a new high
330%   132%   20%  

Graph of the GTI's long recovery attempt.  

Individual Year-to-Date Returns:

ADI

- 10%

GLW

23%

QCOM

- 7%

ALTR

- 5%

IKAN

3%

S

- 5%

AMD

- 20%

INTC

- 23%

SIGM

- 39%

BRCM

- 4%

KEYW

8%

SMI

3%

BWNG

71%

LNOP

80%

SMTL

- 5%

CPHD

11%

MVIS

- 46%

SYNA

- 13%

ENER *

- 21%

NETL

18%

TSM

- 4%

EQIX

35%

NSM

- 8%

TXN

- 5%

FLEX

2%

PMCS *

- 29%

XLNX

- 10%

FNSR

57%

PWER

10%

ZRAN

50%

* Joined list this year (ENER 2/10, PMCS 4/7, SMTL 5/12).
  Return is while in GTI only.