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6/6/05 Dick
Sears Weekly Update:
All Good Things...
The GTI's five-week winning streak finally
came to an end, but not much damage
was done. After all those good weeks,
a 0.3% loss is quite mild.
All the same, it's ironic that the only thing
that stood between us and another
winning week was disappointing news
from our own Intel (INTC).
The GTI's winning
streak against the
NASDAQ (if you care about such things)
is still alive. The GTI has now come out
on top six weeks in a row, the first time
it has done that in over two years.
My curse on the Yankees also continues.
They've lost 9 of 12 since I hexed them.
Returns for Week Ended
June 10:
Gilder Technology Index (GTI):
- 0.3%
Nasdaq Composite
Index (NSD): - 0.4%
S&P 500 Index (S&P): + 0.2%
Historical Returns:
|
|
GTI |
NSD |
S&P |
|
1997
(est'd) |
21% |
22% |
31% |
|
1998
(est'd) |
48% |
40% |
27% |
|
1999 |
284% |
86% |
20% |
|
2000 |
- 44% |
- 39% |
- 10% |
|
2001 |
- 43% |
- 21% |
- 13% |
|
2002 |
- 56% |
- 32% |
- 23% |
|
2003 |
130% |
50% |
26% |
|
2004 |
3% |
9% |
9% |
|
2005 to
Date |
- 3.6% |
- 5.2% |
- 1.1% |
|
Avg for
8+ yrs |
9.7% |
5.7% |
5.9% |
|
Last 52
wks |
1% |
3% |
5% |
Since the
high
of 3/06/00 |
- 80% |
- 59% |
- 22% |
Since the
low
of 10/09/02 |
242% |
85% |
54% |
Makeup of
the GTI:
The GTI companies are those "Telecosm
Technologies" in the Gilder Technology
Report whose stock is readily available to
investors. If a company is not traded on the
NYSE, AMEX, or NASDAQ National Market,
it is not in the GTI.
This past week there were 28
companies in
the GTI. Advances vs. declines were:
13 up, 15 down, 0 unchanged.
Volatility,
Trend, Recovery:
As an indication of volatility, this table shows
average
weekly change in the GTI each year:
|
Year |
Ave Wkly
Change |
|
1999 |
4.2% |
|
2000 |
7.7% |
|
2001 |
8.5% |
|
2002 |
6.8% |
|
2003 |
4.3% |
|
2004 |
3.4% |
|
2005 to
Date |
2.3% |
As an indication of trend,
this table shows
number of up weeks for the GTI each year:
|
Year |
Number
of Up Weeks |
As a % |
|
1999 |
39 of
52 |
75% |
|
2000 |
24 of
52 |
46% |
|
2001 |
22 of 52 |
42% |
|
2002 |
19
of 52 |
37% |
|
2003 |
31
of 53 |
58% |
|
2004 |
28
of 52 |
54% |
|
2005 to
Date |
11 of
23 |
48% |
The GTI fell 94.1% from its March 6,
2000, high
to its October 9, 2002, low.
Click here for
the
details of its long recovery attempt.
|
(address is not clickable)