05/05/06

Commentary:  Cinco de Mayo

Cinco de Mayo commemorates Mexico's victory
over the French army at Puebla on May 5, 1862.
It is widely celebrated in this country, and today
the stock market joined in.

For Gilder stocks the celebration was a little
quieter. That's appropriate, though, since in
Mexico, Cinco de Mayo is a more modest affair
than here, where it is becoming the Hispanic
Saint Patrick's Day.

Myself, I celebrated it two days ago, at a Mexican
restaurant, where it turned out the bartender was
a native of Puebla. I perhaps spent more time
researching Mexican history with him than I
should have. By the end I was in no shape to do
a weekly update of the GTI. It was a good idea of
mine to celebrate Wednesday instead of today.

Also in fiesta mode this week, though still a far
cry from the good old days, were the Wavoids.
Wave Systems (WAVX) went above $1.00 for the
first time in eight months. It was up 15% for the
week and is up 67% in six weeks. WAVX is not
in the GTI, probably only because GG is on the
Board and can't recommend it. But the stock is
a widely held sentimental favorite in Gilderland.

Ben Bernanke, on the other hand, is probably all
partied out. It is said that in time everyone will be
famous for 15 minutes. Perhaps everyone will
also do something that moves the market. This
week it was the turn of the CNBC Money Honey,
Maria Bartiromo.


How did she loosen the Chairman's tongue?
See below. A picture is worth a thousand words.

For an interesting riff on the affair, visit Victor
Niederhoffer's Daily Speculations site. Scroll
down until you come to the photo. (And while
you're at it read about the birth of his son, Aubrey
Darwin
Niederhoffer. Congratulations to Victor,
who after six daughters now has a son to carry
on his athletic tradition.)



The Week Day by Day:
 


A two-day fiesta to end the week. ĦQue bueno!

The Week's Top Gainers and Losers

Gainers Losers
 FNSR + 11.7%   IKAN - 9.2% 
 LNOP + 9.5%   PMCS - 7.9% 
 TSM + 7.4%   ADI - 5.5% 
 AMD + 6.4%   EQIX - 4.2% 
 XLNX + 5.3%   KEYW - 2.5% 

Finisar (FNSR) takes over the number one spot,
up 152% for the year. Intel (INTC) continues to
bring up the rear, down 22%.

Returns for the Week:

Gilder Technology Index (GTI):  + 1.4%
Nasdaq Composite Index (NSD):  + 0.9%
S&P 500 Index (S&P): 
+ 1.2%

Historical Returns:

Period GTI    NSD  S&P 
1997 (est'd) 21% 22% 31%
1998 (est'd) 48% 40%  27%
1999 284% 86%  20%
2000 - 44% - 39% - 10%
2001  - 43% - 21%  - 13%
2002 - 56% - 32% - 23%
2003  130% 50% 26%
2004   3% 9%    9%
2005   5%  1% 3%
2006 to date  28.3%  6.2% 6.2%
Avg for 9+ yrs  12.7%  6.6% 6.4%
Last 52 wks 56% 19% 13%
Since the high
of 3/06/00
- 72% - 54% - 13%
Since the low
of 10/09/02
378% 110% 71%

Comparison of Returns for GTI Stocks
By Whether or Not They Pay Dividends:

Year Do Pay
Dividends
Do Not Pay
Dividends
2004 11.6%   - 3.3%  
2005 11.1%   4.2%  
2006 to date 8.1%   37.9%  
Avg for 2+ yrs 13.3%   15.1%  

Room to Grow:

  GTI NSD S&P
Loss from the
high to the low
94%   78%   49%  
% of the loss
recovered
24%   31%   73%  
Return needed
for a new high
252%   116%   15%  

Graph of the GTI's long recovery attempt.  

Individual Year-to-Date Returns:

ADI

0%

 

GLW

44%

 

QCOM

22%

ALTR

18%

 

IKAN

14%

 

S

7%

AMD

13%

 

INTC

- 22%

 

SIGM

- 7%

BRCM

31%

 

KEYW

22%

 

SMI

15%

BWNG

135%

 

LNOP

97%

 

SYNA

7%

CPHD

3%

 

MVIS

6%

 

TSM

14%

ENER *

9%

 

NETL

45%

 

TXN

9%

EQIX

55%

 

NSM

18%

 

XLNX

16%

FLEX

14%

 

PCMS *

- 14%

 

ZRAN

74%

FNSR

152%

 

PWER

22%

     

(*) Joined list this year (ENER 2/10, PCMS 4/7).
     Return is while in GTI only.

 

 

The Year to Date:




From the GTI's Origin (1/1/99) to Now:




Weekly Change in the GTI, Last 52 Weeks:





Trailing 3-Month Returns, Last 52 Weeks:


 
Makeup of the GTI:

The GTI companies are those "Telecosm
Technologies" in the Gilder Technology
Report whose stock is readily available to
investors. If a company is not traded on the
NYSE, AMEX, or NASDAQ National Market,
it is not in the GTI.

There are now 29 companies in the GTI.
They are listed, with year-to-date returns,
at the bottom of the left hand column.

Advances vs. Declines:

Among the GTI stocks this week, there were
20 up, 9 down, 0 unchanged.


Volatility, Trend, Recovery:

As an indication of volatility, this table shows a
verage weekly change in the GTI
each year:
 
Year Ave Wkly Change
1999 4.2%
2000 7.7%
2001 8.5%
2002 6.8%
2003 4.3%
2004 3.4%
2005 2.1%
2006 to date 2.6%

As an indication of trend, this table shows
number of up weeks for the GTI each year
:
 


Year
Number of Up Weeks
As a %
1999 39 of 52 75%
2000 24 of 52 46%
2001 22 of 52 42%
2002 19 of 52 37%
2003 31 of 53 58%
2004 28 of 52 54%
2005 26 of 52 50%
2006 to date 11 of 18 61%