Daily Speculations
 |
The Grandmaster (L to R: Victor Niederhoffer, Art Bisguier, Nigel Davies) |
Write to us at:
(address is not clickable)
9/26/2005
Thoughts on Trading and Chess, by GM Nigel Davies
Trading is similar to chess in that the stronger players have superior pattern recognition capabilities and a means of deciding which of these is/are important.
Trading differs from chess in that the number of points scored for each win or loss can vary.
Trading differs from chess in that the 'board' is infinite and highly prone to random events. But perhaps this difference is not as great as is commonly perceived; although chess has all the pieces clearly on view, our limitations vis-a-vis forward calculation make the future effectively unknowable. So the chess player, like the trader, is still 'placing bets' based on his knowledge, calculations and experience, though perhaps with a greater degree (illusion?) of certainty and control.
The ever changing cycles of public betting are only found in quite an artificial form in chess play. Chess players should in theory be able to discover the 'truth' about certain positions once and for all. But the fact that their analysis is almost always incomplete/flawed means that cycles and fashions do exist. Many variations/positions get rightly/wrongly castigated as being bad and then rightly/wrongly rehabilitated.
And the public is usually one or two steps behind the form...