complaints

From our days as writers we were accustomed to receiving much hate mail whenever we dared to frame optimistic predictions or studies, circa sp 850 -1000-ish. Doubtless those who predicted Dow 500 and limned the causes of the current and future crashes found a more responsive chord than we did. Witness the total lack of attention to our book "Practical Speculation" (John Wiley & Sons, March 2003) calling for a spectacular bull market and holding up the pessimists as mumboists of the highest order. Same for our columns, which were overwhelmed and buried and much more favorably reviewed and read by the marqueeists and doomsdayers and abelkeechsonians on our former site. But for the first time in ages, right here on DailySpeculations, out of the clear blue sky, the pessimists are finding us loathsome again, and we hasten to publish their so far mild chastisements. -- Victor Niederhoffer

From: James Fink
Sent: Sunday, February 22, 2004 5:18 PM
Subject: Bad Call

I am surprised and disappointed that you are predicting a positive week ahead given the historical precedent that suggests the exact opposite.

Based on S&P 500 data from 1986 to 2003, there is a strong seasonal pattern apparent after the Friday of February expiration. For the past 19 years, on average, prices have tended to bottom on the fourth trading day after February expiration. For this year, that fourth trading day would equate to Thursday, Feb. 26.

http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/feb2004/pi20040220_9711_pi047.htm

You claim to be a counter, well you failed to count this!

Sincerely,

Jim Fink

Vic replies: I am afraid that I am very fallible. and one of my fallibilities is that I think all seasonal stuff mumbo. good luck.
Note from the Webmeistress: In the event, the market rose 0.1% for the week.

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