Orphan Tsunamis, from Ken Smith

February 28, 2007 |

 Tsunamis occur for which the orgin is unknown in that no source has been discovered. They are called orphans. This week a shock, like a tsunami, hit China and the shock wave extended around the globe. It could be called an orphan. Not accompanied an origin.

Orphans appear out of nowhere, are not predictable, and leave damage that takes time to repair. Lives are lost.

In Japan, officials recorded an orphan tsunami — unconnected with any felt earthquake — with waves up to ten feet high along six hundred miles of the Honshu coast at midnight, January 27, 1700.

So far I've not heard of lives lost this week, no accounts of stockholders jumping from high windows above streets teeming with anguished investors and traders.

Only accounts that were weak suffered losses. However, shock waves reverberate and second waves are common. Today is all we have for knowledge; what happens at the open tomorrow is unknown.

Jim Sogi adds:

Interesting how the wave traveled and continues to travel around the world, and how Japan follows US action later in the evening. The flu pandemic, which there will be at some point, will follow a similar path, and change many things, such as travel and free trade, more so than terrorism did.

Many lessons from DailySpec are coming in handy these past few days, on such topics as canes, leverage, liquidity, and survival. More heed might have been taken though to the bears' arguments the past few months, as they were not entirely wrong or foolish. Never underestimate the opposition. It is easy to be self-deluded as we, the market, were.

The biggest drop since 9/11, oddly, since there is nothing really wrong, as there was on 9/11. Just one of those panics that come with the regularity of the seasons, or the years, as the case has been. The news is good, the economy is good, the market is good, and even the price is good. Anyway, seems like a good time to get long, as it has been difficult to do so for months now.






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