Jun

5

 Yesterday while driving I heard a report of strong auto sales of both domestic vehicles (particularly trucks) and BMW and Audi. These would show up in the Daily Treasury Report as revenues in categories such as customs duties and excise taxes. Today I went looking for them, and sure enough the recent data is positive.

I tend to think of those categories as a good upstream surrogate for discretionary purchases. There are excise taxes on auto sales, gasoline sales and even on tanning salon sales.


In the linked chart
, SPX is shown as an historical reference. In my opinion there is not a definitive causal relationship. Historically this had been distorted by the "Cash for Clunkers Program", for example.

But maybe there is a retail recovery.


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