May

20

 The term "pro business" is dangerous, and is often the first step towards some combination of crony capitalism, state subsidies to large businesses, and eventually naked fascism. If it means reducing business regulations and red tape in general, I'm all for it.

Someone like Modi is certainly a great improvement compared to the typical Indian flexion who is more from the government "class" vs. business "class", as he himself is a former businessman. On the other hand, when your claim to fame is bending over backwards to provide some conglomerate with enough incentives to build locally you are likely at the very least to start a subsidy race to the bottom, and eventually increase inequality, both in power and income, to the point where socialism will again seem like the obvious solution. As I firmly believe that what he should do is enforce property rights and reduce all manner of subsidies and welfare to individuals, local governments, and corporations only time will tell how well this will play out on the national level. In the medium term, just cutting through the red tape, reducing wasteful spending, and setting some abstract "pro-business" tone may be enough to start an overall economic growth spurt, which is why the Indian stock market responded.

Rick Perry is a crony capitalist by nature, but he just "incentivized" the Toyota headquarters to move to Texas for California, and he is certainly better for unemployment than the power elite in the latter state. But it may all still end very poorly in the long run.

Kora Reddy writes: 

For the Indian elections there is hope of a stable government with further development a theme this year (a toilet at every home is one of the Modi's fabricated promises this year). Take it with a pinch of salt, all my biased qualitative comments against the right wing party who won (I supported the national congress/non right wing party equivalent/ branded as dynasty politics in India/losing party, but the USA has no problem, when it might be Bush vs. Clinton in 2016 ) …

Anyway the S&P 500 index 3 months prior to election date, (Tuesday after the first Monday in November) since 1950:

#  16
% wins       56%
avg 0.39
med        2.34
avg win    4.61
avg loss   -5.02
max loss    -21.99
stdevp   6.78
t-test     0.23

vs any 62 trading days period

# 16134
% wins    65%
avg 2.09
med 2.37
avg win    6.13
avg loss   -5.42
max loss  -40.60
stdevp      8.91
t-test     29.83

It is bearish (as in it under-performs, slightly by 20 basis points minus that 2008 out-liar) in the USA.

Below are the moves 3 months prior to elections till election date:

Election    SPX    t-3mth    SPX    chg %
06-Nov-12    1428.39    08-Aug-12    1402.22    1.87
04-Nov-08    1005.75    06-Aug-08    1289.19    -21.99
02-Nov-04    1130.56    04-Aug-04    1098.63    2.91
07-Nov-00    1431.87    09-Aug-00    1472.87    -2.78
05-Nov-96    714.14    07-Aug-96    664.16    7.53
03-Nov-92    419.92    05-Aug-92    422.19    -0.54
08-Nov-88    275.15    10-Aug-88    261.9    5.06
06-Nov-84    170.41    08-Aug-84    161.75    5.35
04-Nov-80    129.04    06-Aug-80    121.55    6.16
02-Nov-76    103.1    04-Aug-76    104.43    -1.27
07-Nov-72    113.98    09-Aug-72    110.86    2.81
05-Nov-68    103.1    06-Aug-68    97.25    6.02
03-Nov-64    85.18    05-Aug-64    82.09    3.76
08-Nov-60    55.11    10-Aug-60    56.07    -1.71
06-Nov-56    47.6    08-Aug-56    49.36    -3.57
04-Nov-52    24.6    06-Aug-52    25.44    -3.30

perhaps different election manifesto's for different parts of the world ?? 


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