Mar

3

There have been at least 5 instances in the post WWII era in which Russia has invaded another country: Hungary, Poland, Czechoslovakia, Afghanistan, and Georgia. Are there any analyses on what happened to the S&P the day following the start of the invasion, the week following, the month following, and the year following?

Kora Reddy writes:

War                                         Start      First Market Open Date     t       t+1    t+5    t+10    t+20
Hungarian Revolution                23-Oct-56    23-Oct-56                -0.24    -0.41    0.54    2.15    -3.14
Invasion of Czechoslovakia        01-Sep-61    01-Sep-61                0.18    -0.34    -1.33    -1.44    -2.08
War of Attrition                         20-Aug-68    20-Aug-68               -0.04    -0.26    -0.22    2.26    3.67
Eritrean War of Independence    01-Jul-67    03-Jul-67                       0.3    0.49    1.73    2.85    4.91
Ethio-Somali War                       13-Jul-77    13-Jul-77                    0.14    0.59     2.01    -0.8    -1.44

Soviet War in Afghanistan         24-Dec-79    24-Dec-79                   0.07    0.11    -1.76    1.29    5.37
East Prigorodny Conflict            30-Oct-92    30-Oct-92                    -0.52    0.97    -0.26    0.9    3.03
Civil War in Tajikistan               05-May-92    05-May-92                  -0.02    -0.01    -0.13    -0.11    -0.54
Georgian Civil War                    22-Dec-91    23-Dec-91                    2.53    0.63    5.11    5.36    5.37
First Chechen War                    11-Dec-94    12-Dec-94                     0.56    0.15    1.88    2.89    2.71
War of Dagestan                       02-Aug-99    02-Aug-99                   -0.05    -0.44    -2.28    0.2    -0.3
Second Chechen War                 26-Aug-99    26-Aug-99                   -1.43    -1.01    -3.15    -0.76    -6.22
Russo-Georgian War                  07-Aug-08    07-Aug-08                   -1.79    2.39    2.12    0.92    -1.88
North Caucasus Insurgency        16-Apr-09    16-Apr-09                      1.55    0.5    -1.55    0.87    3.21

                                                                                              avg    0.09    0.24    0.19    1.18    0.91

                                                                                         median    0.03    0.13    -0.18    0.91    1.21
                                                                                                std    1.03    0.79    2.13    1.75    3.48
                                                                                             t-test    0.32    1.14    0.34    2.54    0.97
                                                                                               max    2.53    2.39    5.11    5.36    5.37
                                                                                               min    -1.79    -1.01    -3.15    -1.44    -6.22

for MICEX, the historical data goes back only till 1997.

War                                            Date               t        t+1    t+5    t+10    t+20

War of Dagestan                      02-Aug-99      -0.43    -1.81    -13.57    -6.56    -9.12

Second Chechen War               26-Aug-99       -3.94    -3.55    -3.65    -4.65    -21.49

Russo-Georgian War                07-Aug-08         1.61    -5.25    0.69    -2.81    -10.66

North Caucasus Insurgency     16-Apr-09          1.23    1.72       1.2      0.35     10.44

                                                         avg    -0.38    -2.22    -3.83    -3.42    -7.71
                                                     median    0.40    -2.68    -1.48    -3.73    -9.89
                                                         max    1.61       1.72    1.20    0.35    10.44
                                                         min    -3.94    -5.25    -13.57  -6.56    -21.49 


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