Feb

28

 Does the hot hand exist or is it consistent with randomness?

"The Hot Hand Might be Real After All"

The authors contend there's something to it.

Ralph Vince writes: 

Fascinating article, I think he might have pursued some avenues of thought there just a little further.

Basketball shooting is not the same, say, nor the streaks one might feel in doing it, as the streaks one might sense at a craps table, the difference being the participating aspect of one's skill (unless you attribute throwing dice to a "skill," and many of us, no-doubt, have had uncles who held that view!).

So the feedback mechanism of the previous play impacts upon the next play where skill is actually involved. Where they speak of players feeling hot, and taking greater chances as a result, the player enters a different distribution of outcomes (or, at the very least, different parameters to the distribution of outcomes) than when he didn't feel hot. This is likely true in most of life's endeavors that we must perform something.

And what a lesson there, professional athletes inadvertently might be providing.

One "sport" I find pure torture is golf. Go miss a three foot putt, and the next one looks like it's thirty feet. Go get rattled and try to hit the next shot like you did X holes ago. Clearly, there are different outcomes based on how you react to immediate previous outcomes, pro and con.

Yet, professional athletes seem to be able to compose themselves such that the negative side of the coin they are able to disregard altogether. This may be the greatest facet of their skill in fact, I certainly wouldn't be the one to judge that, but I do marvel at how they can re-compose themselves and relax in difficult situations, even when things aren't going too well for them. 


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