Jan

23

I have been thinking about trying to use the 5 Whys Method to analyze trading errors on my account (and then check the "images" tab for actual users' examples).

But the exogenous events (Black Swans, terrorist actions, bad actors with undesirable or stupid agendas, etc) that are beyond a small investor's control, for example: Das Fed; China changing its economic or monetary policies seemingly at whim; whale trading errors; etc., leads me to think that without either (1) an ultra conservative approach that isn't going to yield much investment return, and/or (2) insurance like put-call strategies that I admittedly know little about, a simplistic equation might look like this:

P = G + D *a * b,        or    [1]
P = G + D * e              

where:
P = investment profit
G = growth of investment
D = dividends (if applicable)
(a) likely risks I know about that are possibly going to occur, and
(b) unknown risks I don't know about that might or might not occur
(a) and (b) collectively = e … an acceptable amount of uncertainty ("Implementing Six Sigma" by Breyfogle III, 2nd ed, Wiley, page 1029)

roughly translates to:

Investment Profit = growth of investment share price + dividends if applicable * risks I know about that are possibly going to occur (beta-likely things) * unknown risks I don't know about that are possibly going to occur (exogenous things)

I view these 'e' uncertainties of the market/s as gravitational-like-affecting forces, similar to a planet (the Market) and its multiple 'e' moons affecting the planet tides. Then, if one doesn't know the orbits of the moons (see 'a' above) and/or their respective orbits are random / erratic (see 'b' above), the 'e' effects exert influences that push and pull the market.  Sometimes the direction is good, sometimes not. 

Which all reminds me of the Chair's recent Lotak Volterra equations information, and a lecture during a university optimization class where Dr. Pugh (Indiana-Purdue Fort Wayne chair of Engineering Technology Dept) went through a very similar discussion about "Why Things that are Normally Stable Suddenly Change".  He was diagramming essentially identical graphs using Hare and Fox populations.

Leo Jia writes:

Why 5 whys?

Welcome to the list, Rich.
 


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