Dec

16

There should be a study of whether time outs when a team is winning is better than time outs when a team is losing. Take basketball for example. Many spurts come with non-percentage and lucky threes in the minute by minutes of a game and between games. Often a team will win big with threes in one game and then lose big the next with the same strategy. Take the worst player like Smith. He won a few games at the beginning of last season and then lost dozens more with the same non-percentage play at the end. This compounded of course with his bad character— how do teammates let a player get away with partying late in the night before a play-off? And how does a persons' percentage on risky shots drop near the crucial ends of a game or playoffs when the adversaries pay it much closer and tougher?

Of course, this relates to markets. The time to quit is when you're way ahead not, when you're way behind. Take Jeff as an example. After creating untold profits with his trifecta on the grains last year, he's been quiet. Not only because of the illness in his family. But because he knows about ever changing cycles. And he knows that at Vegas, everyone has a stop loss when they lose too much. But never a stop gain when they make too much.

Steve Ellison adds: 

In last night's hockey game between the Boston Bruins and Vancouver Canucks, Canucks coach John Tortorella called time out early in the second period immediately after the Bruins scored to tie the game, 1-1 (a Canucks defenseman muffed a pass back, and a Bruins player snatched the puck and scored on a breakaway). He was visibly angry and shouting at his players during the time out. Whether by coincidence or not, the Canucks scored within minutes to retake the lead and never looked back as they eventually won, 6-2:

"'There was a lot of emotion. He just wanted the boys to get going,' said Canucks winger David Booth of Tortorella's impassioned words early in the second." 

anonymous writes: 

For what it's worth, this is a brief exploration of short and mid-term timeout effects on basketball scoring according to situational variable.

Abstract

The aim of this study was to identify the effects of timeouts on Basketball teams' performance differences, as measured by points scored by the team that calls a timeout and points scored by the opponent team according to game location, the quality of the opponent and the game quarter. Sixty games were analysed using the play-by-play game-related statistics from the Asociación de Clubes de Baloncesto (ACB) League in Spain (2009–2010 season).

For each timeout, the points scored in the previous and post 3, 5 and 10 ball possessions were registered for the teams that called the timeout and for the opponents (nC6 and nB7, n22 andn19, n2 and n0 for 3, 5 and 10 ball possessions, respectively).

For the teams that called the timeout, the results reflected positive effects on points scored, with increases of 1.59, 2.10 and 2.29 points during the period within the third, fifth and tenth timeout ball possessions.

For the teams that have not called the timeout, the results identified timeout negative effects in points scored, during the period within the third and fifth ball possessions (decreases in points scored of 1.59 and 1.77, respectively).

Unexpectedly, the situational variables had little or no effects on points scored, which opens up this important topic for further studies and discussion.

Pitt T. Maner III adds: 

Time Outs in pro basketball are thought to favor the defense, allowing time to get set and also introducing the inbound play (and the potential for a steal). But as the writer of the following article notes there are lots of variables to consider (and you may want to call a TO quickly if Smith is dribbling down court on a 1 on 4 break).

Further testing may be needed. A couple of quotes:

"Call Time-Out? Not So Fast, Pro Coaches"

Said Stotts: "One thing I think is very difficult for basketball in comparison to football and baseball is those two sports have static events. There's an at-bat and something happens on that at-bat and you can quantify each at-bat and same thing with football with, even though there's 11 players on the field, you have a down and yardage each time and it's a very static event. Basketball is a free-flowing, with different matchups and different set of circumstances, perhaps every time down the floor."

and

'By utilizing play-by-play data from each game of the 2012-13 NBA season
(as well as computer skills far beyond my capabilities), it is possible
to determine what effect "prior events" have on a team's subsequent
shooting percentage. The excellent site NBAwowy.comhas this data for
each individual team. Aggregating all of this data allows one to draw
some very interesting conclusions league-wide, based on a sample of over
200,000 possessions throughout the season. At first blush, one
conclusion immediately leaped off the spreadsheet before any other:
Coaches should call timeout much less often after a change of
possession.'


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