Nov

22

Noted today on Bloomberg: 'Fractal analysis of similarities to 1929 is available to "analysts".'

Anatoly Veltman writes: 

Bloomberg's red line of 1929 is showing much steeper exponential rise "coming". Coincidentally, when RobinHood (more exactly, Peter Borish) began following the 1929 analogue in the early 1987, they decided to go Long first and capitalize on the blow-off that "was coming" first.

In my view, the main issue with all this is not what many think. Those who think this is ALL mumbo are not entirely correct. Chart developments do serve to illustrate participant psychology, which may well indicate over-doing the upside and thus setting up the downside. So that solitary aspect is indeed pro-analogue. My anti-analogue argument is NOT that human psychology has dramatically changed over past century - it has not. The issue I see in 2013-2014, which was not a factor in 1987, is that today's market is not driven as much by human psychology as it is by machine psychology!


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5 Comments so far

  1. Victor Burnett on November 24, 2013 3:36 pm

    Mr.Niederhoffer, I read in your book Education of a Speculator that you are interested in unique trading techniques, therefore I have some charts which may be of interest to you, please e-mail me ASAP.

  2. Matt on November 24, 2013 9:24 pm

    But since humans tell the machines how to trade, it is still ultimately humans trading.

  3. Andre wallin on November 25, 2013 12:50 pm

    A sucker is born out of market action which caters to his heuristic approach to the markets. He leaves the game defeated and gets sucked in again when he fails to find meaning outside of this terrible game. Odds are very good that Wall Street always wins. The terrible thing is that it seduces people for years and lifetimes. Maybe due to ego, glory, spiritless existence. The only thing I’ve learned from trading for four years is that I hate trading.

  4. Anatoly Veltman on November 25, 2013 1:13 pm

    Matt, the emotional aspect is lost, can’t you see… I also think this is the factor contributing to dampened vol of late

  5. vic on November 25, 2013 2:01 pm

    I posted the fractal chart similarity to 1929 because it is ana example of a canard and randomness and misleading duplicity designed by an invisible evil hand to make the public lose more than they have any rite to lose. vic

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